Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

PLO $3/5 deep with 20 out wrap on flop

shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Live $3/5 PLO $500. V1 is UTG with $1500 - tightish player generally knows where he is in hands and will make big laydowns, V2 in Cutoff with $500, experienced generally solid player but seemed to be tilting having lost a few pots and rebuys. I had the table covered with winning image, having taken down a few big pots recently.

V1 raises to $20, V2 and button call, I call out of BB with QJ87 double suited. $85 in the pot.
Flop comes T93 rainbow, giving me a 20 out wrap (4 K, 3Q, 3J, 38, 3 7, 4 6 SD) with no FDs on board. I lead for $50.
V1 raises to $140. V2 pots for $415 ($85 behind), button folds.
Action to me. Best way to play this? Tx in advance.

Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Call now. Get it in if V1 re-ships. The only hand that you have to consider for V1 is the KQJx. The Q or J on the turn looks nice , but does not give u the nuts. When pots get big, the value of nut draws goes up.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I don't play much PLO, so take this FWIW. Chili, what's your reasoning for flatcalling? You want to keep V1 in the hand?
    My first instinct was to reraise back, in order to shut out V1 and get it in vs. V2. I would probably flatcall in position, but out of position I would rather try to make my life easier by not seeing a blank turn in a big pot with significant money behind.
  • shmed said

    Live $3/5 PLO $500. V1 is UTG with $1500 - tightish player generally knows where he is in hands and will make big laydowns, V2 in Cutoff with $500, experienced generally solid player but seemed to be tilting having lost a few pots and rebuys. I had the table covered with winning image, having taken down a few big pots recently.

    V1 raises to $20, V2 and button call, I call out of BB with QJ87 double suited. $85 in the pot.
    Flop comes T93 rainbow, giving me a 20 out wrap (4 K, 3Q, 3J, 38, 3 7, 4 6 SD) with no FDs on board. I lead for $50.
    V1 raises to $140. V2 pots for $415 ($85 behind), button folds.
    Action to me. Best way to play this? Tx in advance.
    IMO, Shove. You're probably against a set and a hand like two pair + OESD or such. Your equity is fine, with backdoor outs too. Ship it. Run it twice. Get there.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    So I flatted, V1 shipped and I called. Unfortunately the turn and river went 2, 9 and V1 won with T9A2, flopping top 2 and rivering a FH. V2 mucked and said he had a set of 3s.

    Here's what I thought was interesting about this hand. Going back and pokerprotooling the estimated hands, 3-handed my equity was:
    Omaha Hi Simulation ?
    666 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Tc9s3d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QsJc8s7s 54.05% 360 0
    Td9c2dAd 25.23% 168 0
    3c3sAsKd 20.72% 138 0 (made up a hand with 33 that he might play -- giving him a suited A)

    However, lets say I shove and V1 folds (he said he would have folded if I had shoved and I believe him).
    Omaha Hi Simulation ?
    820 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Tc9s3d
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QsJc8s7s 50.85% 417 0
    3c3sAsKd 49.15% 403 0

    Even if the fact that my equity went slightly down 2 handed vs. 3 handed is an artifact of the # of simulations, it's clear that I don't gain equity by shoving and trying to get V1 to fold. So assuming I go with the hand, flatting and trying to get it 3-handed is higher equity because we get his $1500 in the stack, vs. just flipping against V3's $500 -- you want more people in with a bigger pot in this case, as it doesn't decrease your chance of winning!

    I thought this was interesting. This analysis helped me think through some considerations in shoving vs. flatting here, encouraging HU vs. 3 way action. Of course, we don't know in advance exactly what they had, and if they had the KQJx then we are in bad shape. But this hand was actually close to what I thought they probably had (and khalwat as well) as I generally saw much more fast-playing of sets than mega-draws in this game.

    One other thing to think about is that I'm only a slight favorite over the field in either case, which makes me also wonder if there's an argument to just fold to the 3-bet here EVEN though you are tied or a slight equity favorite. Is there merit to thinking that you may want to avoid the variance here and wait for a better spot considering I was 300BB deep effective and my equity edge isn't much better than a coin flip?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Yes. That's why I said to flat call otf. We love the spot having over 50% equity for the main pot which is three ways, and u don't mind if V1 calls or folds for the side pot.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Interesting analysis, Shmed! How do we factor in that after flatcalling, we are OOP with lots of money behind, and don't know what to do on which turn? If we hit and fire, V1 will most likely fold. This definitely decreases our EV. You should do the same analysis for these specific hands once with a blank on the turn and once when we hit.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    For what's:

    Example on turn if we hit 3handed:
    Omaha Hi Simulation ?
    36 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Tc9s3dKh
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QsJc8s7s 80.56% 29 0
    Td9c2dAd 11.11% 4 0
    3c3sAsKd 8.33% 3 0

    Example on turn if we miss 3handed:

    Omaha Hi Simulation ?
    36 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Tc9s3d2h
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QsJc8s7s 52.78% 19 0
    Td9c2dAd 11.11% 4 0
    3c3sAsKd 36.11% 13 0

    Same if we make it 2 handed
    Hit
    Omaha Hi Simulation ?
    40 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Tc9s3dKh
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QsJc8s7s 77.50% 31 0
    3c3sAsKd 22.50% 9 0


    Miss
    Omaha Hi Simulation ?
    40 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: Tc9s3d2h
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    QsJc8s7s 47.50% 19 0
    3c3sAsKd 52.50% 21 0

    Again we are slightly higher favorites in all cases 3 handed vs. 2. The nice thing about this particular situation is that because the board has no flush draws, I win every time I hit my straight against every set or 2 pair hand. Interesting that my overall equity doesn't go down from flop to turn, even though there's only one card to come. Both the 3 handed and turn equity dynamics argue in mind for flatting vs. calling.

    In terms your good points about OOP with 200 BB effective remaining (not ideal), my plan was to shove all non board-paring turns and check/fold or perhaps bet $500/fold all board-pairing turns (was thinking the former at the time, but contemplating whether the latter is viable -- if he shoves back you know he has a FH). Interested in any thoughts...
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    do not bluff board pairing turns. just give up. you have no pair blockers, so the ranges of your opponents includes a lot of made hands like middle set, top two, etc.
    that is another advantage to flat calling on the flop, you can get away if the board pairs on the turn.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    shmed said

    One other thing to think about is that I'm only a slight favorite over the field in either case, which makes me also wonder if there's an argument to just fold to the 3-bet here EVEN though you are tied or a slight equity favorite. Is there merit to thinking that you may want to avoid the variance here and wait for a better spot considering I was 300BB deep effective and my equity edge isn't much better than a coin flip?
    I think that if you have a strong read that the villains have the sorts of hands they did, you absolutely cannot fold here since you stand to make money hand over fist by getting it in with dominating equity. If I ran my numbers right, getting in 3 ways as you did means that you made $500 in EV. Even if you isolate and get heads up against the set, you stand to make $100. These are not thin edges, these are the real money making situations in Omaha. It can be gut wrenching, but it is par for the course when you play that crazy game.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thanks Ominous. Out of curiosity, how are you running your numbers?
    I did a simple equity calculation and got $390 3-handed and $80 two-handed against the set. Wanted to see if I was doing it the same way you did and you were rounding or if there's another way of looking at it.
    $390 = $3500 total pot * 54% equity - $1500 invested in the pot
    $80 = $1140 total pot * 50.85% equity - $500 invested in the pot
    Thanks all for the helpful replies.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    shmed said

    Thanks Ominous. Out of curiosity, how are you running your numbers?
    I did a simple equity calculation and got $390 3-handed and $80 two-handed against the set. Wanted to see if I was doing it the same way you did and you were rounding or if there's another way of looking at it.
    $390 = $3500 total pot * 54% equity - $1500 invested in the pot
    $80 = $1140 total pot * 50.85% equity - $500 invested in the pot
    Thanks all for the helpful replies.
    I originally did:

    3-handed:
    $1500 * 50% + $2000 * 63% - $ 1500 = +$510

    With 54% 3-way equity and an extra $40 dead (button + V2 preflop) it works out to more: +$591.60

    Remember that heads up for the last $2000 in the side-pot you are 63% against villain 1.

    2-handed:
    50%*($85+$140+1000)-$500 = $112.50
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Thanks shmed! Very nice analysis.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thanks ominous -- good catch with the HU for the last 1k. thanks for the thoughts whats chili khal - very helpful.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    What is "whats chili khal"? Am I referenced in there somewhere?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    chilidog said

    What is "whats chili khal"?
    Whatsyourplay?, Chilidog, Khalwat. It's called abbreviation... Laugh
Sign In or Register to comment.