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Can this river raise ever be a bluff?

workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
3/5 500 cap. 1100 eff stacks.

I'm in BB, playing about 4 hours and it's now about 1:30am Monday (so the session started Sunday). I'm up and think I have a good image though it's not perfect.

Villian is on the button, someone I don't know (50ish asian guy, nice demeanor), has been winning but everything I've seen indicates straightforward play. He's played his big hands strong and not trappy and has gotten paid off a couple of times with them.

I have KTsc, 4 limpers, SB, call, I check. pot $30

flop TTJdsc
I bet $20, vil calls. pot $70

Turn 9c
I bet $50 putting villian on a Jack. He calls. pot is $170

River Ah
I bet $70 (small bet to get called by the jack). I would have bet more if the river was a low blank
Villain quickly announces "$300".

I'm curious what range you guys put him on here and how you respond. I made the wrong decision in this spot and he showed his hand so i can say what he had after some feedback.

Thanks guys!
Jeff

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    this is almost never a bluff.. so its really a matter of how often he is doing this with a worse value hand?

    his range is what tens? JT thats a full house, T9 thats a full house T8-T2? is he really waiting til the river on this scary of a board to raise? I dont think so. AT? probably would have raised pre so thats not really in his range..

    KQ? yeah thats in his range.. ..so what hands do we beat that is likely for him to limp pre with? an baby ace and thats about it. Is he really going to raise with just top pair? and how did he get to the river with just Ax?

    this is a very very easy laydown in my book. I think you did a nice job of betting thinly to keep worse in and I just think there is a tiny percentage of the time that he is raising with worse here.. you could try talking to him to see if you can get a read..but besides that just fold..

    ww
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    This is a turbo snap muck. Expect to see KQ and tens full here almost always. To be bluffing, he'd have to be turning a J into a bluff, and I don't expect that move out of anyone at 5/5, not on this board. It's a suicidal bluff, because we have a completely uncapped range here.

    If he bluffed us or shows up with KQ here, it doesn't make folding wrong - it's all about frequencies, and he has a pretty wide value range here of JT, T9, KQ, and potentially AT if he was being trappy.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    So I did insta muck it. My hand accidentally flipped face up in the muck. Vil showed AJ for top two. I think I'm going to chalk this up as a case of making a good decision but with the wrong outcome.
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