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Optimal river play against solid, thinking villian: KK oop ~200 bb deep

DRAGON Posts: 18Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 nl 900 effective
A couple limps and solid, thinking villian raises to 20 from button.
Hero 3 bets KK to 70 from BB, folds to villian who flats.
Villian's range raising from the button is very wide. When he calls the 3bet, since we are not super deep it is somewhat narrow. Villian does not perceive me to have a wide 3betting range oop.
Flop (150) 633r
Hero leads for 85, villian calls.
With this sizing I did attempt to under-rep my hand a bit. Villian would most likely not fold the flop if he thought he had showdown value.
Turn (320) 6s
Hero checks, villian checks.
I checked because I did not think I could get 3 streets from much worse with this board texture.
River (320) 2c
Hero's options are c/c, b/f, or b/c. Villian has 745 behind. Thanks in advance for any input.

Comments

  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    Several points here
    1) You raised pot preflop, against a good player I would raise a little bigger OOP. He will not call you with all the hands he raises with but I still think he calls with a wide range of suited conectors, small pairs etc in position 200BB deep.
    2) My first reaction to the flop bet was that you bet small but the more I think about it I think I like the bet, pretty dry flop and if you bet big you give away your hand to a good opponent. You must keep in mind that doing this will induce bluffs and you must be ready to handle that.
    3) Okay this spot is tricky, I would almost always bet/fold against a bad opponent to get value from pairs. If you do not think he will call you down 3 streets with something like TTs I don't mind this play. He checks behind turn and you can be pretty sure he does not have a 3 or a 6 and neither does he have air. I think he has a pocket pair at this point, he can also have hands like AK/AQ.
    4) Now here comes the real decision. Check/Call: If he is a good player he must bet his pairs at this point but he will check behind hands like AK/AQ. You could bet something like 150 but then if he is a good player he will understand that this is very rarely a bluff and will not call. The option that I like is to bet big something like 350. By doing that you polarize your hand and he will think you have 6 or nothing. He will not give you credit for AA/KK and might call you with a pair or even with A high.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Pre and flop seem fine. I would DEFINITELY bet the turn! A check is better against aggressive and bluff-happy villains, but this doesn't seem to be the case here. If you expect to only get called by better, then you should play more aggressive and bluff more in such spots (e.g. 3bet and barrel off on favourable boards). If you are not able to two-/three-barrel KK on an 1+ board, you have to adjust your entire range instead of changing your line with this specific hand. (For more about this concept, listen to the Cash Plays episode with Phil Galfond).

    As played, I think villain has a lot of small and medium pocket pairs in his range, due to his turn check. He wants to get to showdown, and I guess he won't fire the river often (maybe very small if he puts you on AK ). Also, he won't have many unpaired hands if he calls your cbet on such a dry flop. So, you could either bet the river pretty small yourself to get a crying call from pocket pairs. But if he is a thinking player, I doubt it will work that often. Your line looks very valueish (one more reason why I would bet the turn. You would't check a pure bluff that often on this dream board). This is why I think an alternative could be to bomb the river huge. Maybe even overbet it. He will think that this line doesn't make sense with an overpair, and he knows you have no 6x / 3x combos in your range. Maybe he will level himself into a call with a 99 type of hand.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    As other folks have said, I think the best way to make money here is to just take a simple bet-bet-bet line. Something like $85, $200, and either shoving or betting smaller on the river. On a 336r board, your perceived 3betting range is pretty far ahead of the button's range and so he will often be happy to just try to get to showdown which seems to be what happened this hand.

    If you want to get really fancy, you could play with bet timing and/or sizing on the turn or river. Something that hasn't been mentioned yet is that if this villain tends to get overly attached to pots, a cute line that might induce spazz is making a really small turn bet. The goal here is:

    1. Get the villain to realize his pair is no good.
    2. Make him think that this is a good time to turn a hand into a bluff trying to rep a 6 and/or spazz out due to annoyance.

    If he is a thinking player and doesn't know much about you, he might not give you credit and read a small turn bet (say $100) as a block bet from a hand scared of a full house. The advantage of this play over checking is that when you check, pairs can think that they don't need to bluff and will check behind. If he happens to be a player that will fold most overpairs to a normal turn bet, this is a reasonable alternative since you might induce or you might get a call where you would have otherwise gotten a fold. In addition, if you find that he folds to the small bet, you now have opened up a lot of cheap bluff opportunities going forward.
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