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Interesting turn spot with set against two face-up flushes deep

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Uncapped 2/5 game
V1 sat down recently and just bought in for $2k specifically to cover me, which I was a little offended by ~2K (1.9k effective against me)
So I have a lot of information on V1. I'm giving him credit for being a good player because he bought in for 2K to cover me, but he knows absolutely nothing about me other than the fact that I don't exactly look like someone who knows how to play 400BB deep

V2 is your typical slight losing or break even 2/5 reg (~600 effective)

Hero raises to 20 from MP with JsJd
V2 calls in LP
V1 calls in BB

$62 to flop
Kc 2c 3s

V1 donks for 30
Hero calls
V2 calls

$152 to turn
Jc
V1 bets 45
Hero calls
V2 raises to 200
V1 raises to 700
Hero snap mucks

Obviously over here, V1 has the nut flush and V2 has a smaller flush

But I should have thought more about this hand before folding. If V1 knew my game, then my hand is pretty much face-up as a set that's trying to fill up, but I forgot the fact that he also thinks I might be a donk. Are there great implied odds here to flat call the $700 bet, as ridiculous as it looks, for implied odds purposes?

Comments

  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    How can you call 655 more? You have 20% equity, you need to make 2620 from the pot. You are not making that much. If the villain is a decent player he will not give you his stack when the board pairs. No way you can call so much. Remember you even said v2 is a break even player, you cannot be sure he will call the 400 more after you flat. I think it is a very easy fold.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Intersting question. I think there are too many variables that would have to go right in order to make a call profitable.
    - You have to very confident that V2 is on a flush. If he raised with KJ or a lower set, you are either drawing to either 1 or 7 outs
    - V2 has to call behind you
    - Then, you have to get there on the river, of course,
    - And finally, V1 has to call at least another 1100 on the river, which is basically his all-in.

    I don't think it works out often enough, especially due to the first bullet point. People show up with strangely played hands in live games all the time.
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    No way calling is profitable. You need 4-1 from the pot. If V is really a capable player, the stack isn't going in as soon as the board pairs. Heartbreak card, but easy fold IMHO.
  • edog Posts: 43Member
    I agree with folding. It is unlikely the implied odd can be realized. At the risk of being accused of hijacking the post I had a very similar situation last night and I think I made the wrong decision by folding.

    200 bb effective stacks. 2-3 no limit

    88 on the button. five way limped pot. ($15)

    flop 8d, jd, 2d. Big blind leads for $15. Folds around to the Player to my immediate right, he raises to $30. I fold???

    I know the player in the big blind who led very well and he has a flush most of the time. The flop raiser is a an unknown young player running well.
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    You mean to say BB is a very tight player. In that case I don't think he will 3-bet without the nut flush. If that is the case I would definitely call the 30.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    edog said

    I agree with folding. It is unlikely the implied odd can be realized. At the risk of being accused of hijacking the post I had a very similar situation last night and I think I made the wrong decision by folding.

    200 bb effective stacks. 2-3 no limit

    88 on the button. five way limped pot. ($15)

    flop 8d, jd, 2d. Big blind leads for $15. Folds around to the Player to my immediate right, he raises to $30. I fold???

    I know the player in the big blind who led very well and he has a flush most of the time. The flop raiser is a an unknown young player running well.
    With 200 BB eff., I'd call 10 BB on the flop.

    Also, I would definitely raise this hand pre with deep stacks and the best position. I would raise an amount that likely will get called multiple times, as a pot sweetener basically. If you make it 12 and get 4 callers, you can easily get all the money in when you hit your set.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    In edog's hand, I would definitely call.

    In my hand, if he just made it 500 or so, I would probably call. But 700 was a bit too big of a bet.

    Of course V2 couldn't fold a flush even though it was the most obvious fold, and I would have filled up. I was probably being results oriented when I posted this
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