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Led into 3 times as PFR with trips

AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
How do we play this. Hero raises to $20 with J T from HJ, only BB calls. Young white guy been around for awhile plays a ton of poker so I assume he's a decent winner. I sat down 2 orbits ago and haven't played a single hand yet. Effective stacks $500 to start the hand.

Flop J 6 4 , pot $40
Villain leads $25, hero calls.

Turn J , pot $90
Villain leads $60, hero calls.

River 9 , pot $210
Villain leads $110...

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    hmm.. this is kinda a weird line from someone who is a better player ..unless they have something like a set or AJ.. I doubt he is leading with a worse jack??

    so its 330 with 110 to call.. If he every does this with a weirdly played overpair or say a counterfeited two pair I think you have to call. Also some draws missed like 25, 57 etc.. I dont think I would raise since I am not sure what worse hand would call you.

    If hes a winning player and leading with say J8..then he must be only a little over breakeven. Had you seen him lead with anything other than a pretty good hand before?

    also interesting that his river bet is only half pot when his other bets were bigger.. Did you see him make a value bet bluff on river before? I would call but expect to lose a pretty good amount of time.

    ww
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Doubt overpairs because he called preflop in the bb (prob would have 3bet them). Might possibly have a set of 6s or 4s. Donk lead into dry flop & triple-barreled oop - his bluff range will be extremely small. Only sensible Jack you beat is J8 - everything other good jack beats you. I am seriously considering a fold in this spot.
  • kom Posts: 225Subscriber
    If he is a winner, I don't see him having a draw here much, as he would have called out of position with an extremely marginal hand, nor would he lead with any jack unless I see him also in tournaments. After the smallish river bullet, I'm guessing my read is askew here and I pay him off, expecting this to be a break even call against a collection of small sets, oddly played jacks, and assorted marginalia that shouldn't be there; and valuable to see what he has, if I play with him a bunch.
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    Don't see a point in raising. Don't think you can fold the hand the way you played it. Absent any other reads, I call.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Call. There are plenty of bluffs he could have. Could lead with overs, gutters, backdoor hearts, maybe a random pair he feels like bluffing.

    I see no reason to raise. He should never have a worse hand that would call a raise. Even if he has a worse Jx, he should feel like it's just a bluff catcher if we raise.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,079AdministratorLeadPro
    edited July 2014
    He could also be betting with a pair if he is really good--like a hand like 88s, although it would be an odd flop line. I've made bets like this on the river when I think my opponent is good enough to call me down with ace hi but again I usually would not have led all three streets. I think you have to just call with pot odds.
  • LVH Posts: 171Member
    If he had a FH or something, I'd think he'd bet bigger and hope you have a ten. I don't know, the river bet is sort of confusing, but I'm not sure what worse hands can call a raise. J-8 suited or something, I guess. But I would just call.
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Bart said:
    He could also be betting with a pair if he is really good--like a hand like 88s, although it would be an odd flop line. I've made bets like this on the river when I think my opponent is good enough to call me down with ace hi but again I usually would not have led all three streets. I think you have to just call with pot odds.
    Pot odds do not warrant a call if you are much more than likely beat.
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    dannydeuces said:
    Pot odds do not warrant a call if you are much more than likely beat.
    $110 to call to win $320 or about 3:1. I think what he means is you're likely good here more than 25% of the time, so it's a call.
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    khalwat said:
    dannydeuces said:
    Pot odds do not warrant a call if you are much more than likely beat.
    $110 to call to win $320 or about 3:1. I think what he means is you're likely good here more than 25% of the time, so it's a call.
    Understand Bart's point; however, i just think that you are going to be good in this spot at a much lower percentage than what warrants a call. Money saved is money earned, and I think this is a spot where you almost only beat a bluff, which is a very, very small part of his range.

  • sevencarddud Posts: 30Member
    This is a call. The guy could play AA/KK/QQ this way, trying to get value from a worse pair. I also think he bets more on the river if he has 6s or 4s full, trying to get max value hoping you have a jack.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited July 2014
    Hm im surprised some people think its a fold when we block 50% of his trips combos. I thought about raising for a long time then ended up calling, villain confidently rolled over TT.

    In retrospect I think raising is too thin and it's a clear call.
  • drumsound Posts: 23Member
    I'm calling here all day. I may moan, and AJ or a full house is possible, but I'm calling.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,079AdministratorLeadPro
    edited July 2014
    dannydeuces said:
    khalwat said:
    dannydeuces said:
    Pot odds do not warrant a call if you are much more than likely beat.
    $110 to call to win $320 or about 3:1. I think what he means is you're likely good here more than 25% of the time, so it's a call.
    Understand Bart's point; however, i just think that you are going to be good in this spot at a much lower percentage than what warrants a call. Money saved is money earned, and I think this is a spot where you almost only beat a bluff, which is a very, very small part of his range.

    Thats all well and good but pot odds definitely DO and SHOULD go into your decision making. When you are getting laid a price you only need to be good X% of the time to make a call profitable. The way this hand played out I absolutely feel like we are good here 1/4 times and if there is some sort of dynamic going on (not here at these levels) I would considering min raising at the end as well.

    One of the other things that people dont seem to put together in spots like this is the combinations work. We have a J therefore it is less likely that our opponent has a jack. Even though our hand equivalency is about the same as KK I feel much comfortable with my hand strength here because we block the jack combos.

    Bart
  • BugsyBugsy Posts: 40Subscriber
    Aesah said:
    Hm im surprised some people think its a fold when we block 50% of his trips combos. I thought about raising for a long time then ended up calling, villain confidently rolled over TT.

    In retrospect I think raising is too thin and it's a clear call.
    Don, what was this Villain thinking, if at all?! Did he say?
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