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Getting raised on dry flops with overpairs

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
since around jan 15 th I have not won a pot over 30 bucks with an overpair. during this time I have been setted by underpairs 6 or 7 times and have had trips flopped a couple of times.

my question to you guys is if the board is like 66 T and I have QQ and I get raised or check. raised by a player with say 200 total in stack. do I just go all in or is this a betting tell? This has happened so often now that I am beginning to question just getting it in on the flop. seems like the donkeys might overplay tp. but non donkeys seem to be only doing this with a value hand. then what can I beat.

in this past month these hand have cost me almost 5-6k in pots so I dont think it can be just dismissed.

so are these more like what Bart talks about when players raise and have no money behind?

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Wendy, sorry to hear about the bad run. Sounds frustrating and hang in there.

    I definitely believe that there are many tighter players that are only raising / CRing in the example spot you showed with hands that have you beat. E.g. bottom of range is AA, on up to trips (maybe they slowplay a flopped FH). They are just calling JJ and lower pairs/PPs, including Ts. Of course there are villains that may overplay TP and part of the challenge is figuring out who is who with limited history.

    I like betting overpairs, but when raised or check-raised; while it's not an automatic bet/fold it is a warning red-flag: I would think hard about your history with them, what their range might be, and stack size considerations, before calling or getting it all in. Good luck!
  • I would need a very specific read against someone before getting it in with QQ after a raise on a 66T rainbow flop. There are no real draws, so it's a way-ahead, way-behind situation. This suggests to me that you should just call. Calling allows your opponent to continue to bluff (if that's what he's doing) and it gives you more information (namely, his turn bet size, bet speed, bet comfort) that will help you get away from the hand if you're dominated.

    Also, the fact that in about a month you haven't won a pot of more than $30 with an overpair tells me that the people you're playing against aren't getting it in with top pair on that kind of flop (and aren't bluffing either). If that's the case, when you're facing heat, you might want to just give them credit and fold. It's exploitable, but they won't be able to figure out that you're folding overpairs in that situation.

    Finally, you might want to consider raising bigger with your big pairs. Obviously this is exploitable too, if your villains are paying attention. But at least where I play, most of them aren't. The bigger preflop raise makes most of their preflop calls incorrect and I could even just close my eyes and stack off and still show a profit.

    I hope your luck changes, but it does sound like it's just a bad run of cards. If opponents are constantly flopping sets to your overpairs, there's not all that much that you can do but wait for your luck to change.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    the problem with calling is they are so short.

    So let me give you an example. in the 66T board last night i bt 30 on the flop into a 60 pot ( two callers after I raised to 20). the guy who raised me raised to 90 had only 110 left. They really arent deep enough to call. he is pot committed. thats the problem.. If we both had say 500 behingf then I think I can call. in this situation its either raise all in or fold. I have been shoving and they are calling but thet have sets. I am just thinking that because they are short AND raising me its a nutty line?

    ww
  • Yeah, you can't really call there. I didn't fully appreciate the SPR.

    I think the real question then is what would they do with top pair. If they wouldn't make this raise with top pair, then it has to be a fold. In my player pool most players would just call with top pair. What makes it such a tough spot, though, is that most players would just call with trip 3s or tens full there too.

    It might be an easier decision if you bet $45 on the flop. The $30 might induce a bluff, which makes the decision harder. Plus I think anyone who would call $30 with top pair or a hand like 99, 88 or 77, would also call $45. If you bet $45 and he makes it $120, then I think it's an easier fold.
  • Even though I just posted in another thread that people are incapable of bet or raise folding at these levels, if you do want to go with the hand why not just call? Even if a small percentage of the time a guy check raise folds JT or 99, especially if his raise sizing is smaller on the the flop, I think call, calling is a superior way to play the hand especially if top pair is higher like K or A. It is a balance between how often certain cards might scare him on the turn and the propensity for him to get it in now vs your 3 bet with weaker holdings.

    Bart
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart said

    Even though I just posted in another thread that people are incapable of bet or raise folding at these levels, if you do want to go with the hand why not just call? Even if a small percentage of the time a guy check raise folds JT or 99, especially if his raise sizing is smaller on the the flop, I think call, calling is a superior way to play the hand especially if top pair is higher like K or A. It is a balance between how often certain cards might scare him on the turn and the propensity for him to get it in now vs your 3 bet with weaker holdings.

    Bart
    I get that and was thinking about that too. My question goes more to villains range as apposed to how to proceed. I am thinking that with certain players that are short their range is much higher than if they were deeper. I think this is something we can discuss further but this is very similar to what Claire saw with her KK

    Ww
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    But I'm failing to see the problem with just calling the flop if you're never folding in a WA/WB situation, no matter how silly the remaining stack sizes look. If you're never folding, why does it matter when the chips go in when the board is dry?

    These spots are super annoying for me too, and sometimes I have trouble folding if I'm getting raised on the flop because I always think that recreational players would slowplay if they had trips. If they're short enough, sometimes I'm forced to get it in bad. But if they do something weird, like in the KK hand I posted, I might be able to get away from it.

    If they're short enough that you can get all the money in with two bets and it's a dry paired flop, you can even check the flop and bet the turn. And if they're eager to raise, it usually means trips and you can get away from your hand.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I am trying to explore that with some players they have better and I would like to fold these scenarios. In wa/wb situations I am very happy to just call and call off on turn. I have done this many times.

    So in some of my bad run, I dont think I can get away from the hand. but in others I think I might.

    in the 66T hand the guy was older. seemed tight. I just think we can always assume players are flatting with big hands anymore. I think that depends on the player. Some players would and some players wouldnt. I think this might be one of the most player dependent situations.

    When I was playing at hollywood in w va I got check raised by a set on the flop, bet into by a set, etc. all as the pre flop raiser. the tighter someone seems to be the more credit I think you have to give them?

    wendy
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    You probably couldn't go too wrong with always folding on these boards against non-aggro opponents, but of course that's easier said than done. I must confess that I can be a station when I reach a certain level of frustration. I usually know when to stop playing, but sometimes I insist on staying if the game is good enough.

    I definitely know what you mean about not being able to get away from the hand during a bad run. Maybe if you think you're not playing optimally, raise a little bigger with premium pairs to get fewer callers so it's less likely someone cracks you when you won't be able to get away from the hand?

    There was this time when I was in the fishiest Saturday night 2/5 game, but I could never pick up a hand, and I had terrible timing for everything. Every time I didn't cbet and decided to delayed cbet an overcard, the opponent would have that overcard but he would have folded the flop. When I cbet with nothing, it would never work. And everyone would snap fold when I actually had something.

    So I finally picked up KK UTG, and I almost jumped up in my seat. Made it 20, got 3 callers including the guy who's super nitty and doesn't bluff.
    994 flop I cbet small and get in two spots. T on turn, I bet about half pot, nitty post-flop guy snap ships. And I say, "@#&! it, his shove is less than a min-raise. Let me just call." Even though it was the most obvious fold. There was probably a case for a c/f if that guy called the flop.
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