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Top 2 river sizing

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited August 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 $500 max NL

I took a bunch of time off of poker and haven't posted in a long time so I apologize if this is a boring hand.

PFR ($900) Younger white guy. Kind of bad aggro. Raises a fair amount and will barrel post.

Villain ($750) 20's white guy. Recreational player. Not like a huge station. Seems to be one of those guys who may think he's better than he is. Only have about a 30 min sample size so that's all I have.

Hero ($1100) Maybe 1 orbit ago or less stacked a guy for >100bb with quads. I raised 99 over a few limpers, got 3b smallish and a guy limp/cold called so I called. Flop came 998dds and the PFR (who isn't in this hand) ended up having JTdd. I checked, he bet, the cold caller folded, I check/raised small and he shoved and my quads held up (actually sucks I won b/c I would have got a $10k BBJ if I lost). So they just saw that.

PFR raises to $20 MP1
Hero (CO) K Q calls $20
Villain (BB) calls

Flop: K Q 5
Checks to hero, hero bets $45, Villain calls, PFR folds

Turn: K Q 5 9
Villain checks, hero bets $95, villain calls

River: K Q 5 9 4
Villain checks, hero bets $x?

Villain didn't snap call flop but called fairly quickly.

OTT Villain thought for a bit and called. Obviously JT gets there but I really think he's donking or check/raising given there's a flush draw. I thought he could have a hand like QJ/QT that was mid pair that picked up a gutshot, or maybe a hand like KJ/KT that is holding on. Flush draws are still possible but I thought flush draws would still snap a turn bet and he had to think.

Once he checks river his range is kind of capped at KJ/KT or worse. I've noticed that for some reason guys will have this absolute bet size cap that they'll call on the river. Once I start betting more than say $150 the pot needs to be really big or they'd need to have TPTK or better or guys can just fold.

Would you ever bet something like $130 and try to rope him into a call or are you always betting $175-200?
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