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Flopped set on monotone board

CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/3/5 $530 effective

Raise 20 with 44 utg+1 (don't know much about him but an okay player), utg+2 and BB calls (very weak player with short stack probably 200)
Flop J64ccc , BB leads out for 25, I make it 85, both opponents call. (Pot 320)
Turn 8s, what is my play here?
1) Bet 200 and call the additional 225 if the UTG+2 shoves (I will be getting more than 4:1 which is enough to call)?
2) Bet 150 and fold for 275 more (In this case I am only getting 3.25:1)?
3) Check and call a bet of upto 200 from the UTG+2 (assuming he calls my all in when I hit -- which I think he will)?


  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    hmm.... seems like a pretty close decision beteeen options 1) and 2) to me.
    ( I assume Bb checked the turn, right?)

    First, I am pretty sure that 3) has to be the worst option. V2 can have a lot of hands that he would call a bet with but which he won't bet himself. Like KcJx, AxJx type hands, etc...

    With deeper stacks, I would usually bet something around 180-200 on the turn. But here, this sizing would exactly be the threshold where folding to a raise and calling it off have around the same EV. Therefore, we need to either choose a different sizing or a different line.

    (If V2 was either really good or somebody who can make big laydowns, I would even consider check-raising the turn as a semibluff. Let's assume we check, V2 bets, and V1 calls. Then we have a protected pot, where we shouldn't really bluff ever. Therefore, V2 might even fold a small flush. But since most players would never fold a small flush here, and because we loose value if the turn is checked through, this play might be less appealing than I thought at first.)

    Anyways, I think it's a close decision between bet-calling and bet-folding. However, I wouldn't expect to get raised all that often in general. My gut feeling is to bet 200-230 and call it off, but I am not sure how to explain my reasoning. I guess I want to get max. value against weaker hands, and I don't think I will get shoved on all that often. (My line looks strog and the pot is protected.)

    Interseting spot, I am curious what others think about it.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    I like no 2. Size your bet so you can bet fold and if the other player comes along than you have to call. I do think you acn get called by worse. IMO good players dont get scared by monotone boards since flopping a flush doesn't happen enough - most people have top pr or a draw vs a flopped flush in these cases. Funny thing is for me I might check if a flush comes in on the turn (ie a flush DRAW on the flop) with 2 others in but will keep firing if the board flopped monotone. Lot of people chase. Just dont pay them off when another club comes- Chk fold if one does w 2 others in. And if one comes DOUBLE CHECK TO SEE IF THE BOARD IS PAIRED. This may sound silly but when we want the flush to come in and it does or dont want it to and it does our mind just focuses and that and its REAL easy to miss the fact the board paired. Been playing for years and still sometimes make that stupid mistake.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I have been getting in similar spots in the last month or so. SPRs are such that I am pretty much pot comitted if I bet anything normal. With a set three handed? This is a pretty tough spot I think. I wish hero would not have raised with the 4s utg.. I think it bloated the pot and now we are in a really tough spot.

    I guess I am probably in the camp of betting calling off. Its a close decision with close calling odds.. Better to try and get value from two pair hands, flush draws and the like. If you get shoved on its because someone with a flush was waiting for a "safe" card..

    I would also hazard to guess that the 25 lead in is either 1) "I am on a draw and want to block the amount I have to pay for it" or 2) " I have a flush and I dont want it to get checked through". I myself have been seeing alot of #2 lately. If this guy is weak , short and a tight player then I am pretty worried that he has a flush.. not the nut flush but he is going to go all in and I am behind.. The overcall of the 85 is almost always the nut flush or the nut flush draw..

  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    Okay lets do some math
    I think it is a pretty close approximation that he does not call me on the flop with anything other than flushes or the nut flush draw. (I don't think there are any two pair combos, difficult for him to call with just a J without a club)
    Nut flush draws: AcK,AcQ,AcJ,AcT (assuming he will not call a raise with anything worse than ATo). He could call with KcJ,QcJ [4x3 + 2 = 14 combos]
    flushes: AXcc, KQ/KT/QT, T9/97 [9+3+2=14 combos]
    Looks like its almost 50/50 of hands with a draw v/s flopped flushes.
    Couple of more assumptions: (I know they are not 100% but we do need some assumptions to do the math)
    1) He always calls my turn bet with his flush draw
    2) He always shoves the flushes on the turn
    3) He folds the river without a flush
    4) He never bets anything other than flush when we check
    5) He bets 200 (the highest amount we will call)

    Option 1:
    We bet 200, he calls and misses river: 320+200=520
    We bet 200, he calls and hits river (18% of the time): -200
    EV = 520*.82 + (-200)*.18 = 390.4
    We bet 200, he shoves, we call and miss: -425
    We bet 200, he shoves, we call and hit (22% of the time): 320+425=745
    EV = (-425)*.78 + 745*.22 = -167.6
    Total EV = 390.4 * .5 + (-167.6) * .5 = 111.4

    Option 2:
    We bet 150, he calls and misses river: 320+150=470
    We bet 150, he calls and hits river: -150
    EV = 470*.82 + (-150)*.18 = 358.4
    We bet 150, he shoves and we fold
    EV = -150
    Total EV = 358.4 * .5 + (-150) * .5 = 104.2

    Option 3:
    We check, he checks, he hits: 0
    We check, he checks, he misses: 320
    EV = 320*.82 = 262.4
    We check, he bets 200, we call and miss: -200
    We check, he bets 200, we call and hit and he pays us off: 425+320=745
    EV = -200 * .78 + 745 * .22 = 7.9
    Total EV = 262.4 * .5 + 7.9 * .5 = 127.25

    So, if my math is correct, all 3 options are pretty close with option 3 being the most superior. Comments? Any assumption that you do not agree with?
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