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Can we ever bet fold the river in this spot?

WarmPieWarmPie Posts: 146Subscriber
edited August 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1-2 200 cap live
Hero has tight image and has been at the table for about an hour.

Villain is a young unknown who sat down less than an orbit ago, and has limp folded to a preflop raise. Effective stack is aro $200

Villain limps utg followed by 3 more limps. Sb completes and hero checks option with 7 2

Pot: $12

Flop: 2 2 3

Hero leads $8, limper calls and everyone else folds.

Pot: $28

Turn: Q

Hero bets $18 and villain calls.

Pot: $64

River: 7

Hero bets $42. Villain raises $120 more and is all in.

Looking forward to hearing some feedback. I will post results later on.

Thanks!

Comments

  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    edited August 2014
    Villain has 33?

    Almost getting 3 to 1 I do not really think you can ever fold here, but I guess that is the only hand that makes sense. Maybe A2 or K2 suited.
  • JonCash Posts: 3Member
    almost never ever fold. you have sevens full! what are you putting him on to fold here? Queens full? Well good for him! pay him off!
  • BartBart Posts: 5,820AdministratorLeadPro
    I can't fold this at 1-2. I've seen enough players limp with A2os from under the gun in these LATB 1-3 80 cap games. I think it is more interesting if the river is say a T.

    Bart
  • WarmPieWarmPie Posts: 146Subscriber
    We have deuces full actually, not sevens full. His bluff range in this spot is virtually non-existent, and the only hand we beat here that can shove the riv is A2 in my opinion. The range I put him on in this spot is as follows:

    A2 (possibly K2 suited but I think it's pretty unlikely), 77 (also unlikely), 33, slow played QQ. I do not think he has a bluffing range in this spot.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,820AdministratorLeadPro
    Let us assume the he only plays A2 suited from UTG and rarely K2s suited.

    A2s-- 2 Combos
    K2s-- .5 Combos (assuming he has K2s here 25% of his combos)
    33-- 3 Combos
    77-- 1 Combos
    QQ-- 1.5 Combos (That he limps pre and only calls the flop 50% of his Qs combos)

    We beat 2.5 combos and lose to 5.5. We are getting close to 3-1 in pot odds this is a call. Add 2 or 3 combos of A2os and its not close.

    Bart
  • WarmPieWarmPie Posts: 146Subscriber
    Thanks for the replies Bart, I definitely appreciate it.

    I made the call fairly quickly and he had QQ. In some loose games I don't hate occasionally limping early with a big pair for a bit of deception, but this was a fairly snug table.
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