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KQ - Throwin' in a c/r for the kids

SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Thoughts on this line?

3/5 NL - Effective stacks $1,500

V1- Very straight forward weak player. Calls a fair amount of hands in position but plays tight post flop. He tank check/called a small river bet when he turned the nut straight (it went check check) and then the river brought a bd flush draw.

V2- 5/10 player. Calls a ton of hands pre-flop and does not give up easily post flop. Ie. he will float, call with bottom pair etc. He is not completely spewy tho.

Preflop - Hero raises to $25 utg with KhQs. V1 calls CO, V2 calls Button.

Flop $75: AhKc8c. Hero checks, V1 bets $45, V2 calls, Hero makes it $200, V1 tank folds, V2 calls.

I can c-bet here but I thought V1 was capable of flatting a ton of ace high hands pre and flush draws / gutters only make up small portion of their combined ranges. Thoughts?

Turn $520: AhKc8c7h. Hero bets $350 and V2 calls.

River $1,220. AhKc8c7h8s. Hero?

Happy Valentines day mudbloods.

Skinnybrown

Comments

  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    What does V2 think about you?
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I like this play against someone like V1 who sees monsters under the bed constantly. V2 really throws a spanner in the works. Has he ever seen you take this sort of line for value? What hands is your turn bet trying to get to fold (or get value from)?

    It sounds like getting him to fold an ace when kickers don't play and all draws missed will be a tall order. Aces are somewhat discounted since that was V1's most likely hand which skews the villain's hand more towards draws (although an A is still most likely). Perhaps this is a check-call?
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    CrazyCBettor said

    What does V2 think about you?
    I believe he thinks I'm a solid player. This hand was about 3 hours into the session and I had a good image.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    OminousCow said

    What hands is your turn bet trying to get to fold (or get value from)?

    I was trying to get called by flush draws and maybe get weak aces to fold. At the time I thought his range consisted more of flush draws...
    OminousCow said

    Perhaps this is a check-call?
    This is where I was uncomfortable. I wasn't sure how often he would turn a missed flush draw into a bluff.
  • I agree with you that most/all of his range would be flush draws. Would he call you with just a flush draw on the turn (no straight/two pair/trip possibilities)? Will he call for a chop with a hand such as Ac4c? And will he bet that hand himself to get you off what he thinks is a chop on the river?

    I think it's probably a check/fold. Given he is not completely spewy he shouldn't be turning his air balls into bluffs given the strength you have shown on previous streets. When he bets I think he's more than likely trying to get you to fold AQ for a chop.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    I think this is a check fold in almost all cases. Villian either has a monster here (A8, KK, 88, AK with the Ac), which he will surely bet when checked to, or he has a whiffed big draw (QJcc being the most likely) that he will not call any bet with. Calling the c/r and then the pretty large bet on the turn means that he has a good piece of the board. I would doubt that 910cc would be in his range, but maybe. There are just way more combinations of near nut hands that Villian could have than missed draws. If you think he is sticky, then betting any reasonable amount (even 1/2 pot is two-thirds of hero's remaining stack) on the river is burning money IMO. Is Villian loose enought hat he would call K7o for a raise on the button? That's the only had that I can see that would maybe call a river bet that we don't lose to (but we only chop). We have some showdown value - let's try to get there.

    As an aside, I think the c/r on the flop is also a bit of a spew. If you want max fold equity I would pull that move on the turn. That would also be a good way to get to a (relatively) cheap showdown.

    I think leading flop, c/r turn, and then bombing rivers that we connect with would be the best way to extract max value. It also allows us to set the price to get to showdown. If we miss the river, we have a bunch of options avaialble - one of which being the underbluff, which I actually like in certain situations.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I would put villain almost exlusively on AJ, AQ type hands and flush draws. Since the 8 paired, he can't have a set that often. Maybe he has A8 or K8s ten percent of the time.

    Based on this range, the optimal river play hinges on his tendencies. How likely is it that he will fold Ax to a big third barrel? How likely is it that he will bluff a flush draw if checked to? If the former is more likely, go ahead and bomb the river. If the latter is more likely, check with the intention of calling most bets (epending on villain's timing, sizing and behaviour).

    Without any reads, I would go ahead and check (expecting to have the river go check-check most of the time), and call mostly in case he does bet. His value range is just too small IMO.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Wackabrew said

    As an aside, I think the c/r on the flop is also a bit of a spew. If you want max fold equity I would pull that move on the turn. That would also be a good way to get to a (relatively) cheap showdown.

    I think leading flop, c/r turn, and then bombing rivers that we connect with would be the best way to extract max value.

    It also allows us to set the price to get to showdown.
    I am confused. Isn't here a contradiction between the first and the second statement?
    Also, how does check-raising the turn go together with both the last sentence and "we have some showdown value - let's try to get there"?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I agree with most of you that he probably won't bluff all that often, since our line looks strong. But isn't his valuebetting range on the river even smaller? What can he really have that beats us, but he didn't raise earlier with or 3bet pre?
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    I agree with most of you that he probably won't bluff all that often, since our line looks strong. But isn't his valuebetting range on the river even smaller? What can he really have that beats us, but he didn't raise earlier with or 3bet pre?
    Yep, this was what I was trying to get at. It seems like his value betting range/bluff range that beats us is so narrow that he would need to be betting just about all of his AcXc on the river and have slowplayed monsters all the time in conjunction with not bluffing with his missed draws very much for this to be a fold.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Wackabrew said
    As an aside, I think the c/r on the flop is also a bit of a spew. If you want max fold equity I would pull that move on the turn. That would also be a good way to get to a (relatively) cheap showdown.
    I respectfully disagree that this is spew. Both villains have ranges that are on the weaker side here.

    c/c flop and c/r turn depends on V1 barreling the turn a high % of the time with a weak ace which I'm not sure he does as often as we need him to. If he has a weak ace I think his default is to check turn and bet safe rivers. His turn betting range is a fair amount stronger than his flop betting range so I think we actually have more fold equity on the flop. Does that make sense?
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said
    Wackabrew said

    As an aside, I think the c/r on the flop is also a bit of a spew. If you want max fold equity I would pull that move on the turn. That would also be a good way to get to a (relatively) cheap showdown.

    I think leading flop, c/r turn, and then bombing rivers that we connect with would be the best way to extract max value.

    It also allows us to set the price to get to showdown.
    I am confused. Isn't here a contradiction between the first and the second statement?
    Also, how does check-raising the turn go together with both the last sentence and "we have some showdown value - let's try to get there"?
    At least in my experience, check raising tends to slow down most opponents on the next street. Most recreation players view a check riase as a super strong move and will avoid betting into someone that has done it without the near mortal nuts because they're afraid of it happening again. I could have sworn that Bart also mentioned this in one of his older podcasts as well (although I could be wrong on that).

    Maybe I'm looking at this hand the wrong way, but once we get to the river in the manner that Hero has played it, any money that goes in on the river is esentially dead. You're either getting called by better or he has a missed draw that we beat. Villian has called our check raise along with our turn bomb. I'd be stunned if he doesn't show up with a hand that either snaps us off or insta-folds.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    Skinnybrown said
    Wackabrew said
    As an aside, I think the c/r on the flop is also a bit of a spew. If you want max fold equity I would pull that move on the turn. That would also be a good way to get to a (relatively) cheap showdown.
    I respectfully disagree that this is spew. Both villains have ranges that are on the weaker side here.

    c/c flop and c/r turn depends on V1 barreling the turn a high % of the time with a weak ace which I'm not sure he does as often as we need him to. If he has a weak ace I think his default is to check turn and bet safe rivers. His turn betting range is a fair amount stronger than his flop betting range so I think we actually have more fold equity on the flop. Does that make sense?
    I see your point. I guess I'm thinking that if Villians have draws here, they will feel more comfortable calling a Flop check raise than a turn check raise, given that there are (potentially) two cards to come. If they are on weak aces, a flop check raise makes sense if they fold a decent amount of the time. When they call though, wouldn't you have to put them on something stronger than that (or, potentially that they are incapable of folding top pair?)

    Either way, I am extremely curious to hear results on this one.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Wackabrew said

    Maybe I'm looking at this hand the wrong way, but once we get to the river in the manner that Hero has played it, any money that goes in on the river is esentially dead. You're either getting called by better or he has a missed draw that we beat. Villian has called our check raise along with our turn bomb. I'd be stunned if he doesn't show up with a hand that either snaps us off or insta-folds.
    I am not sure if he will snap us off with Ax, but I agree that he either has a decent made hand or a busted draw. That's why I wouldn't bet the river if I think he won't fold Ax hands. Checking is definitely superior if we don't expect villain to fold much.
  • coolfish7 Posts: 29SubscriberProfessional
    whatsyourplay? said

    I would put villain almost exlusively on AJ, AQ type hands and flush draws. Since the 8 paired, he can't have a set that often. Maybe he has A8 or K8s ten percent of the time.

    Based on this range, the optimal river play hinges on his tendencies. How likely is it that he will fold Ax to a big third barrel? How likely is it that he will bluff a flush draw if checked to? If the former is more likely, go ahead and bomb the river. If the latter is more likely, check with the intention of calling most bets (epending on villain's timing, sizing and behaviour).

    Without any reads, I would go ahead and check (expecting to have the river go check-check most of the time), and call mostly in case he does bet. His value range is just too small IMO.
    I agree. His range almost has to be AJ, AQ, and busted draws. Betting has almost no value unless he can fold the AJ/AQ a good amount of time (you might not have to bomb river actually, if your opponent would perceive a smaller value-looking bet as stronger).

    Your river check is interesting though because in combination with the c/r on the flop,your hand looks polarized to either FH+ or busted draw (though we know you're actually merged, LOL). For example, at the lower levels guys will fire twice and check call the river with TP, but usually only if they lead the flop. Thus I expect villian's river bets to mostly be bluffs since value betting into a polarized range would be odd/bad.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Wackabrew said
    Either way, I am extremely curious to hear results on this one.
    check, check and we are good.

    fwiw, I am not 100% sold on my sizing. both on the flop and turn, we are skewing his calling range more towards AQ/AJ the bigger our sizing is... ideally we want to pick a sizing that near all his flush draws will call. I think My sizing was too big but just got lucky to run into the top of his draw range...
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    It is a check/fold on the river. I don't see the villain bluffing with draws too often here.
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    skinnybrown were you planning to call river? What are your thoughts? I agree most of the time it will go check/check but the times he bets I don't think we can be good often enough.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    CrazyCBettor said

    skinnybrown were you planning to call river? What are your thoughts? I agree most of the time it will go check/check but the times he bets I don't think we can be good often enough.
    My plan was to fold to a river ship. I tanked for over a minute before checking.
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