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Anyone good with ICM considerations to break down math of this B vs B spot?

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I decided to waste time and play a couple of the WSOP circuit events for the chance at a score that can make a difference in my bankroll but not hurt if I don't cash in any of them.

I'm good with tournament math with regards to bet sizing, pot committed sizing, and shove/fold ICM, but I have no idea how to break down the math of this particular situation.

$365 WSOP Circuit event with 15 players left, hero in BB has slightly below average stack of about 150,000 chips at the 4000/8000 level which is about 4.5% of the chips in play.

Considerations:
None of the big stacks left are fish. They all have >$100k tournament winnings. So even if I double up, I'll be a long way from winning the tournament.
First place gets ~23K, second ~14K, third ~10k and payout jumps are insignificant for the next six players to bust
Villain in SB is a LAG who is a little tilted after being one of the chip leaders and losing a huge flip with QQ and already spewed off a few times after that. He is down to about 300,000 chips when he just had almost 700k

Folded to SB who shoves.
Hero is in BB and looks down at KQo

My analysis of villain's range with his current mental state is that he's shoving anything suited or remotely connected or with one high card Q or higher. His shove range also excludes anything that is strong enough to make a regular raise and call a shove. He's probably shoving a little wider than he should, considering the fact that if he loses, he'll lose half his stack.

What I decided was that against villain's range, I'm never far behind because he would raise-call with premiums, but I'm also rarely a huge favorite because I don't dominate anything that doesn't have a K or Q in it. A2o-A9o might be the only hands in his range I'm actually behind. But if he has random suited crap, I only have about 60%, and even if he has random unsuited crap, I don't even have 65%

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Claire

    I dont know the actual math either but with about 20 bbs left in your stack do you really want to basically flip for your tournament life? I would call with say any pair 6s or higher, A9 or higher and maybe KQ suited (prolly not)..

    I dont really play that many tournaments but if the guy was short stack I think his range is wider and I am not sure you can just assume because he is on tilt his range would be around 50/50.. If he has really won 100k + in tournies then he could likely be pretending on tilt trying to get you to call off wider when actually he has a big hand. I think there is a decent chance he is doing this as well.

    So if your range analysis is correct and you add some big hands too I think its an easy fold with 20 bbs..

    I would rather three bet all in against a laggy player raising from lp with this hand as apposed to calling off with it..

    Ww
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I still think, tilted or not, he's not open shoving premiums. He also knows that I understand resteal shove spots and hate calling off shoves (he saw men fold AJo from the SB to a 6BB shove the previous day), so he would raise and call off with good hands.

    So his hand has to be bad enough that it can't raise and call a shove.

    The sick part is, if I call here, it will literally be the first time in the tournament I'm all in for my tournament life. I tend to be good at avoiding those spots most of the time with the "shove more, call less" rule
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