I decided to waste time and play a couple of the WSOP circuit events for the chance at a score that can make a difference in my bankroll but not hurt if I don't cash in any of them.
I'm good with tournament math with regards to bet sizing, pot committed sizing, and shove/fold ICM, but I have no idea how to break down the math of this particular situation.
$365 WSOP Circuit event with 15 players left, hero in BB has slightly below average stack of about 150,000 chips at the 4000/8000 level which is about 4.5% of the chips in play.
None of the big stacks left are fish. They all have >$100k tournament winnings. So even if I double up, I'll be a long way from winning the tournament.
First place gets ~23K, second ~14K, third ~10k and payout jumps are insignificant for the next six players to bust
Villain in SB is a LAG who is a little tilted after being one of the chip leaders and losing a huge flip with QQ and already spewed off a few times after that. He is down to about 300,000 chips when he just had almost 700k
Folded to SB who shoves.
Hero is in BB and looks down at KQo
My analysis of villain's range with his current mental state is that he's shoving anything suited or remotely connected or with one high card Q or higher. His shove range also excludes anything that is strong enough to make a regular raise and call a shove. He's probably shoving a little wider than he should, considering the fact that if he loses, he'll lose half his stack.
What I decided was that against villain's range, I'm never far behind because he would raise-call with premiums, but I'm also rarely a huge favorite because I don't dominate anything that doesn't have a K or Q in it. A2o-A9o might be the only hands in his range I'm actually behind. But if he has random suited crap, I only have about 60%, and even if he has random unsuited crap, I don't even have 65%