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How do you like this barrel off for 100bb's?

DRAGON Posts: 18Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 NL 530 effective
Hero raises 99 to 25 over one limp from MP. One caller behind, young winning player calls from BB, limper completes.
Flop Q57r (100)
Checks to hero who makes it 65. Guy behind folds, BB calls, limper folds.
Turn Ao (230)
BB checks, Hero continues with a bet of 105. My sizing is a little smaller on the turn because I wanted to save a decent sized barrel for most rivers. I don't believe villian c/calls any big hand twice, besides maybe AQ. My read is that he has Qx.
River To (440)
BB checks, Hero continues once more with an all-in bet of 335.

Not much history between myself and villian. I wouldn't think he views me as overly aggressive/out of line. Does my range look strong with this line on this board runout? Thanks in advance.

Comments

  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    IMO, this is a close spot and it comes down to the question on which level villain is thinking.
    - Level 0: against a player who never folds an ace, this play is obviously pretty bad. But you mentioned that villain is a winning player, so he should not be on level 0.
    - Level 1: against a player who is only playing his own cards but will fold to pressure, this triple barrel should work often enough to be +EV. He can basically only call you down with AQ, QT (if he calls turn with it), and sets.
    - Level 2: if villain is also thinking about what hand you can have, I don't like the triple barrel all that much. The third barrel strongly polarizes your range, and you represent only AA, QQ, 77, 55, AQ, and maybe AT/A7/A5. He should expect you to check hands like AJ at least once, and probably AK as well (since most players do check this hand once), so he might call you down with a decent one pair hand like KQ. I am not sure if calling down in his spot is a good play, but I think he might do it often enough to make the three barrel -EV for you.

    So, how much hand reading is villain doing? Is he one of those "non-believers" how are afraid to get bluffed?
    In a vacuum without more specific reads, I would not triple barrel here. I would rather wait to pick up more of villain's tendencies and then decide how to play against him.

    IF you decide to triple barrel, I like your bet sizing on all streets. (The turn bet is a bit small, but I agree that you need to have a large third bullet in order to make him fold enough).
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    I disagree with your range a thinking player will put you on. If i had any ace in this spot im going to be betting all 3 streets if i decided to cb the flop.

    That being said i dont really like cb Q high boards that often. So much of his range has a Q in it or you have the crushed. (smaller PP)

    If he is a winning player and somewhat decent how many queens can he have on this board that you will get him to fold out? Id say most of his Q type of hands are going to be broadway Q's so you will get him off QJ/QK only. I dont really like this spot as a bluff. It seems like you arent getting enough hands to fold.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I disagree about what you said about him not check/calling flop and turn with a big hand. Why do you think villain can't be check/calling with a big hand? You said he was a thinking player, and a thinking player has to know that you'll barrel the A a lot of the time. So he just calls down and lets you hang yourself.

    I play rather high variance post-flop, and I probably wouldn't triple barrel here, for the reason wyp said under level 2 and the fact that he could easily be check/calling with a big hand

    Betting all in by the time you get to the river with an A is a bit thin normally, don't you think, Mike? If I had something like A9 here, I would probably have checked back the turn and bet the river or bet the turn and checked back the river
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Betting all three streets on this board runout is pretty polarizing. You are repping thin (sets, AQ, possibly AT), so the question is how capable is villian of hero calling river for 65 BBs. It does not appear that villian has a big hand here after checking three times, so I think the bluff is probably +EV.

    Against this line, I think it is a tough call with Qx, but he could have easily c/c'ed with AK/AJ on the flop thinking he may have had the best hand. I don't think he is folding those hands if he did make a strong pair of aces. How often is he floating oop with ace high on the flop?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    How often have you played with villain? Has he seen you barrel in si,ilar spots? If he knows that you consider triple barrelling in spots like this one, it is actually a pretty good play for him to check-call with very strong hands!
  • Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    I think a lot depends on how villian views you. You say he is a young winning player, but how did you come up with that? How many hours have you played with him? Also, if you want to know if this is a good tripling spot ask yourself what value are you repping here? Pretty thin. Sounds like the flop c-bet is normal, then the Ace hits and you say that's an over and a good barrelling card and proceed and then get called again and thinking your prolly not good you get it in on the river ten when there is no way you have KJ here. Plus, why r u turning your hand into a bluff against a young winning player, who is much more likely to sniff this out? Do this against the player that is folding a ton.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    After you get called on the turn I think you have to shut it down. You are correct in saying that the A is a good barrel card, but once villian calls, I would have to assume that he either has a Q or an A (or both) and doesn't believe you have a set (if he has one of those two cards, in his mind, the odds you have one are lower obviously). Add to that the fact that most lower stakes players will almost always check a set on a dry flop (not saying that you do, but if you have limited history he may be generalizing), and I would have trouble putting you on a monster. I give up on the river and expect to see AK that floated flop/AQ for a turned top 2/or an unbelieving JJ.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Claire - i dont think betting an A is very thin at all. Id prolly even 3 barrel KQ. Might just be the way i play though since no one gives me credit ever and i constantly get called down by AQhigh. He can easily have QJ/KQ here that he will likely call a river bet with. I might not shove but i would bet for sure.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    If an A comes on the river, then shoving isn't too thin, but I don't think it's a profitable value bet to do so when it comes on the turn.
    Yeah, you might not shove if you were betting for value, which means that you shouldn't when you're barreling either because of the way it polarizes your range. You might bet like 150 against the passive type and hope for a crying call if you really had an A.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Claire-
    I too have the tendency to try to balance my bet sizes between bluffs and value bets, but I think that is a mistake in smallish live NL. We need to apply max pressure here and cannot give him such a good price to call our bluff.

    In game, I would probably put on the brakes after being called on the turn, but if you're gonna bet the river, I think bigger is better (that's what she and he said).
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I didn't say to bluff the river smaller. I said this wasn't the best spot to triple barrel
  • What exactly are you trying to get to fold? A single paired ace? You think he c/c at on this board? Aces up that got counterfeiters? He's really playing a c/c with a7 here?

    If he doesn't have an ace or queen you lose to jj/th only. And is he really calling tt pop when the ace hits?

    I just feel like you're getting called unless specifically he floated you oop with a7 or a5, didn't lead/cr turn 100bb deep and gives you credit for betting kq or something ott or shoving ak/an when the scariest card comes.
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