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3/5 86s betsizing on river

CruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Fairly loose passive game on a Saturday night.

Hero has a winning image. No big hands shown down but my stack is around $1800 after value betting top pair a few times and getting called down with weaker holdings (one guy called off three streets with medium pair!).

Three loose/passive players limp ($500, $1000, and $700 stack sizes respectively). Hero has 8h6h in cutoff, limps behind. I could raise there but I think because there's been so little raising preflop that I can see a flop cheaply.

Button ($1200) who has been playing tight raises to $20. Button seemed ABCish, definitely on the tighter side. Both blinds fold, limpers call, I call.

Flop ($85):

5c6d9d

Limpers check, hero checks, button bets $30, limpers fold.

When aware/thinking players miss, we tend to c-bet small, and c-bet bigger when we hit. I've been experimenting with this by raising pretty small (either raising in position or check-raising OOP) when they do this, and I get a fold most of the time and so far it's been pretty profitable.

So I make it $85, and he thinks for a while and calls. Huh.

Turn ($245):
7c

I wasn't really expecting him to call, but now I've got the best hand most of the time. So I bet $175, and he thinks and thinks and thinks and thinks and thinks and thinks and calls.

River ($595):
Th

So front door diamonds brick out but there's a one-liner to a straight. I really don't know what a tight player is raising preflop with, c-betting only $30 into four players, calling a check raise with, and then tank-calling the turn bet with. JdTd maybe? Maybe?

So what do we do here? Without really able to put villain on a range, I don't really know how big to bet on the river. I really don't think he has J8 and if he does, oh well, I guess that sucks for me. At worst I think we're chopping if he has a hand like 98 or pocket 8s. So I'm definitely betting here, but what does he have? I was really unsure.

Does he have a flush draw? Do I bet small and try to induce a raise because front door diamonds busted out? Does he have a medium strength hand like JT that ran into top pair, so if I make a overbet on the river, can I represent a busted draw and he can call me with a bluffcatcher? With the one-liner to a straight, does that line even make sense?

Also, thoughts on any previous streets is also good if you think my line was suboptimal.

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I think his small bet on the flop most likely seems like a FD, perhaps a nut FD with overs such as AT-AK diamonds. An overpair e.g. JJ/TT seems less likely given the small sizing, but possible. A flopped straight trying to get value is also possible, but I think he probably bets bigger with the flush draw out there. I don't think a set plays this way, as he probably tries to protect the hand by betting bigger and 3-betting the flop.

    I think your perceived range is stronger, with a PF limp/call and c/r flop, 78 is certainly in your range, along with a set. I think you bet smaller for value on the river, perhaps $290 or so. I think he rarely raises, but I would call (one scenario might be an overvalued TT on the river).

    I think overbetting the river is unlikely to be called based on your description of him being tight and ABCish. I don't think there's enough hands in this player's range that is strong enough to call a $600+ bet on the river (I think he's folding one or even two pair) given the strength you've shown throughout the hand, even if he suspects a busted FD.

    I think underbetting is less ideal given your description as a tight ABC player -- doesn't sound like someone that would bluff-raise the river if he thinks you are full of it (more likely to look you up if he has anything with showdown value -- thus I'd size to where I think a top-pair type hand would look you up). I do think it's worth considering generally, especially vs. LAGs.

    One thought on the RR preflop sizing -- how about raising more? $85 here almost looks near a min-raise to the IP bettor. It seems like you'd have more fold equity if you made it ~$105.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    +1 to everything shmed said.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    This seems like a spot where sizing doesnt really matter. too an extent. Hes either gonna look you up cuz he thinks your full of shit or hes gonna fold. I would bet close to pot in this spot and expect to be called quite often.
  • CruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    shmed said


    I think your perceived range is stronger, with a PF limp/call and c/r flop, 78 is certainly in your range, along with a set. I think you bet smaller for value on the river, perhaps $290 or so. I think he rarely raises, but I would call (one scenario might be an overvalued TT on the river).

    I think overbetting the river is unlikely to be called based on your description of him being tight and ABCish. I don't think there's enough hands in this player's range that is strong enough to call a $600+ bet on the river (I think he's folding one or even two pair) given the strength you've shown throughout the hand, even if he suspects a busted FD.

    I think underbetting is less ideal given your description as a tight ABC player -- doesn't sound like someone that would bluff-raise the river if he thinks you are full of it (more likely to look you up if he has anything with showdown value -- thus I'd size to where I think a top-pair type hand would look you up). I do think it's worth considering generally, especially vs. LAGs.

    One thought on the RR preflop sizing -- how about raising more? $85 here almost looks near a min-raise to the IP bettor. It seems like you'd have more fold equity if you made it ~$105.
    I thought just under 3x was fine, but maybe you're right about RR preflop sizing.

    I came to similar conclusions as you after thinking for a long time, and I bet $275. He thought for a long time and made the call and said, "I hope you don't have pocket 8s" and I was good. He says he flopped a set of 9s. I'm not sure if I believe him because that's a weird way to play 9s.

    Weird hand.
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    I don't see him having a FD too often ... is it common to raise 20 after 4 limpers? 90% people do this with small or medium pocket pairs trying to build a pot. When I read your hand the first thought I had was a set or pair (55-88), 99 is a bit higher than I would have expected but anyways. This kind of flop bet also has 2 meanings one as you said and other the guy is very strong. I agree this is not the kind of board to do that on but I have seen people do that. Also I don't agree with shmed that he will always bet 3-bet the flop, you guys are > 200BB deep and he will not be comfortable getting it in on a straightening board. But agreed with the others that the bet size really does not matter as long as you don't overbet, I would bet close to 400 and get hero looked up by him. Also I agree I would raise the flop close to 3.5x
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