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Value town or spew?

EagerStudent Posts: 8Subscriber
edited October 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Venetian 2-5

I open PFR $20 MP1 :As :Ah 1010 stack.

Tight passive female recreational player called MP2 675 stack,
loose whale LAG called BTN 450 stack,
BB called 500 stack.

Pot 80.
Flop :Kd :5h :5s .

BB check,
Hero CBet 60,
lady called in MP2 (SPR against her was 8.2.)
others folded.

(As a stereotype my assumption tight passive female recreational players are often sticky and tough to bluff. Expecting her to play straight forward fit or fold.) When she called I doubted she had a 5. Most likely hands were KK, Kx, 55-QQ.

Pot 200. Turn was :7c Board Kd 5h 5s 7c
I bet 160,
lady called.
Some people recommend checking the turn for pot control. I prefer value betting until I get raised.

Pot was 520. River was :9s. Board Kd 5h 5s 7c 9s

I bet 400 and she raised all-in to 445. (I think my bet sizing was a mistake. Should have bet 270 or 280 to keep the weaker part of her range in. I thought she would raise with KK, 55, 77 or 99. I thought she would call with AK, KQ, KJ, KT, 66-QQ.)

I had a nasty feeling she had KK, but the pot was so big I couldn't fold.

Appreciate your comments or recommendations.
Eager Student

Comments

  • LuckyDucky Posts: 139Subscriber
    edited October 2014
    With only $45 to call, you can't fold on the river...

    I think KK is not very likely. AK, 77, 99, 55, A5s, 65s are all in her range- although, if the LAG has been raising in position a lot, she might have tossed 55 and 65s...

    A5s seems to be most consistent with her play- it could withstand some heat if raised by LAG player... My second guess is AK. Maybe she was hoping LAG would raise it and she could make a big re-raise with AK... hmm... which means she could have done the same with KK... having the LAG in there really screws with reading her hand...

    You're either way ahead or way behind.

    You're +EV for betting flop and turn... (EDIT: 1/2 pot bets only)

    On the river, you should have just gone all-in or checked. Checking is higher EV- and if she shoves, [EDIT] - fold - call up to 1/2 pot bet...
    by 1Fontane
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Welcome to spew town...

    You just told us that V was tight passive - that makes figuring out her hand super easy.
    You raised pf and she called - so she's got to have a good hand... pp, AK, etc.

    On the K 5 5 board (BTW - the colons go on both sides of the suit with a space between the card and the first colon) - if she calls, she can't be on a draw and she's got to think you've got at least AK. Right? (unless your image is that of a laggy, spewy Asian)

    So you c-bet the flop. And she calls. Ok, what is she calling with?
    IMO, AK, KK, 55, 5X. That is it! 66-QQ fold typically fold out there.
    Tight passive players are basically playing their hands face up.

    If you choose to put her on AK (the only hand you beat) then sure, bet the turn. But that's such a tiny portion of her range, I'm not betting 160. More like 85 or 90 to allow her to keep calling with a worse hand (in case she's got KQ or KJ).

    On the river, if she bets - I call. If she checks, I check. If she goes all in, I fold.
    No tight passive player is ever value-bluffing the river with anything that's not at least trips here. But most likely, it's a boat.

    As played, you took a wrong turn along the way and imo ended up in spew town that somehow looked like value town.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Your bet sizes are so big on flop turn amd river it would be really really hard to
    Get called by worse
    by 1Fontane
  • EagerStudent Posts: 8Subscriber
    Thank you to all for your comments and recommendations.

    Eager Student
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,391Subscriber
    edited October 2014
    I disagree that his flop bet is too big. Remember he is betting into 4 people. It is safe to assume that someone is more likely to have a K than a 5. Every Kx is calling this bet. It goes without saying that any 5 will call too.

    If this was HU on the flop it would be different.

    I will agree his turn and river bets are too big.
  • fishcake Posts: 937Subscriber
    Flop bet is fine. Turn and River are too big. I don't mind betting all 3 streets but I'd go much smaller. Maybe like $100 on turn, $150-$200 on river. Folding to a raise anywhere, obviously.
  • luckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    [quote="beauregard"]

    So you c-bet the flop. And she calls. Ok, what is she calling with?
    IMO, AK, KK, 55, 5X. That is it!

    If the only king we're giving her is AK, then how are we giving her any 5X at all? I think this range assessment is too narrow. IMO we can easily add in all combos of KQ, and maybe KJ, as well as four combos of K10. Also I think that we should be discounting KK for not clicking back pf, although I agree it's in her range sometimes. If we're giving her 5X, then the most reasonable assignment is A5s, of which there are 2 combos left.

    I actually like betting all three streets here, and am never really that concerned that she filled up on turn or river, as you fold out these pps on flop. I think that you can discount A5 sometimes as well for not raising the turn. I think the river can go either way (bet/fold, or shoving), I tend to half pot here in order to keep in KQ, (youre probably losing KJ if it ever existed) and it's a snap fold when raised. I think that pot controlling this board is a mistake even against nana.

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