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$3/5 NLHE, triple barrel A high board?

shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$3/5NLHE. V is an middle-aged non-sophisticated (my read) opponent who bought in originally short and was on his second or third buy-in. History is that I won one of these buy ins from him. I was pretty card dead with tight image,then raised in middle position with Kh5h, he called on the button. Flop came Kx Xh Xh, I c-bet and he called. Turn came a heart. He only had a pot sized bet left so I checked for deception. He shoved, and I called and was good. He was very bewildered by me and bought in again.

Now this hand comes up. I'm in MP with T9 suited, folds to me and I raise to $20. V calls on the button (stack ~$350, I have him covered), rest of the table folds.
$45ish in the pot. Flop comes A72 rainbow. I c-bet $35. He thinks for a while and calls.
Now $115 in the pot. Turn comes a blank 4 rainbow or such. I double-barrel for $100. He thinks for a long time, looks super-pained and then calls. He looks weak and reluctant.
Now $315 in the pot and he has $200 behind. River comes a J.

Would you bluff the river and if so, how much would you bet? Or would you check?

Comments

  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Did you have any backdoor flush draw? I generally try to avoid running bluffs in this sort of spot since when people has the top-est of pairs, they does not folds.

    I think if you want to run this sort of play, you should only do it rarely (barring a strong read to the contrary). A good way to do that is only triple barrel with premium backdoor draw hands that pick up equity on the turn. So for instance, in this case, you might want to take your middle suited connectors and cbet always, only double barrel if you pick up a pair or an 8 out+ draw and then commit to the river bet regardless of river card. I think if you don't limit yourself in this way, you will end up spewing off a little too much to AJ-AK, especially if y0u have shown down some questionable 'Internet kid' hands.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Om, I believe I did have the backdoor on the flop which didn't progress on the turn.

    Thanks for the interesting thoughts on barreling - I agree that you can't over do this for sure. If you carry this plan out in your games, how often do you end up double-barreling vs. single-barreling? (I suppose I should do the math -- I guess in this case I have 10 outs to a turned FD and 6 pair outs -- about 1/3 of the time you continue with your barrel). Do you find this is enough double-barreling? Per Bart, I am always looking for spots to up my double-barreling frequency (as lot of people call a c-bet light, but won't call two bets).
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    You should definitely be double barreling with a pretty high frequency in these games. This is just not the best flop to do it without a read. The problem is that most of the fold equity of the line on this particular board comes from the flop bet, especially if stacks are relatively shallow. The villain in this hand only starts with 70BB and given that you have already stacked him with a less than premium hand, he could easily decide to dig in his heels here, especially if he has AJ+.

    Put another way, this situation is a little to fraught with peril from both sides to proceed. Some players will call the turn and fold the river a lot. Some will call the turn and never fold the river. Most players will not fold an ace to a second bet on the turn. So against one player profile you should always be betting turn and river and against the other you should never be betting turn and river. On the river you are stranded in a spot where you can easily make a terrible mistake by betting and a terrible mistake by checking. Wait to develop a solid read before proceeding here and you will be glad you did.

    A much better situation to double and triple barrel is on boards that can easily change to improve your perceived range past their hand. This is why Bart often talks about low boards being good to barrel since any overcard can potentially crack top pair. This also translates pretty directly to the equity of their hand against your range. Pick spots where even against a relatively wide range they are still not monster favorites.

    As an illustration:

    A3 on A72r is 73% to win against the range of top 30% of hands.

    7d6d on 73c2c is 65% to win against the top 30% of hands.

    76 on T73 is only 58% to win against the top 30% of hands.

    The bottom board is the best of these three to consider double barreling. The A72r board is the worst. You might want to try playing around with top pair's equity against a range on different turn cards to gauge which cards are best to barrel. Unsurprisingly, the bigger the card, the better to barrel.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    You probably already know this, but I figure I should write this down in case someone else reads the thread:

    Note that these seemingly small changes in equity make a big difference since a decrease in my chance to win is matched by an increase in your chance to win and visa versa.

    If we both but $100 into the pot and I am N% to win, then the money I make (or lose) is the difference between our two equities times the amount wagered:

    p = % chance to win
    B = size of matched bet
    EV = p*B - (1-p)*B = B*(p - (1-p)) = Size of bet * (My equity - Your equity)

    If I have 73% equity, if we put in $100 each I win $46.
    If I have 58% equity, I only win $16. A 15% decrease in my equity cuts my winnings by almost 2/3rds!
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I would shut down already after he calls the flop. I am just not in the business of bluffing weak players of top pair (which he doesn't have exclusively, but too often to make a second barrel profitable IMO).

    However, if you decide to go for a turn barrel, I think you have to triple barrel very often. Shutting down after the turn is the worst option IMO, so either barrel once or three times.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    If hes an older guy who saw you raise K5s than chked when you hit he's thinking you're a young punk who bluffs and he wont fold top pr weak kicker. In your case though where u raised and he called vs him limp calling he could easily have AJ, AQ,AK and there's no way he's folding those (Based on the info you gave on the type of player he is). If he is oop and chk called 2 streets that indicates most likely a weak ace in which he may fold to a triple barrel after calling 2 streets (normal line for players like this imo) but he may be pot controlling AJ or AQ and wont fold period (He wont bet but wont fold either- very typical in older rec players I've found out). Honestly your best bet is taking one shot and be done or maybe chk call the flop than chk call the turn. Its very likely he'll think you're slow playing a good ace with that dry of a board and wont bet again but DONT chk the turn than bet the river if the turn goes chk chk because you think he;s weak. He'll call. Don't ask me why but a weak player like this if you chk one street will not fold on the river with ANYTHING. Mainly because they are confused as to why you checked the turn. Bart talks about patterns and how people play and these are the things I've noticed.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thanks all. So my first strong instinct was to bet $200 based on the physical read -- he was so slow, reluctant, and depressed in calling the flop and esp turn bet -- it really didn't seem like an act (I didn't think he was sophisticated enough). I was ready to quickly bet him all in, but then I stopped and considered many of the points brought up. After some thought, I actually decided to ignore my read, thinking the right poker play at this point was to give up, not spew, and wait for other chances to value bet him.

    So I checked and he insta-checked and showed pocket 5s. He looked quite relieved and told me that there was no way he was calling a river bet, and that I had confused and scared him by the flush hand - with that hand I believe that he would have folded to a river shove.

    So I posted this hand just to see how other people factor in "instinct" e.g. reads, when its opposite of the more rationally correct play. I agree the rationale play is to shut down at some point (perhaps at the flop) as he's sort of short stacked, likely to be a station (wasn't quite sure of that yet), has a lot of As in his range and we are OOP. If he was a better player I would have definitely been quicker to put him on a A of some sort and probably given up earlier. But how much do you follow and incorporate "instinct" in these kind situations?
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Om, thanks for the mathematical discussion -- really helpful and insightful. This is a great way of thinking about equities and how that impacts good boards to barrel.

    The interesting thing about this flop is that I thought it was good to barrel because it was so dry -- really there were no draws (just an unlikely wheel gut-shot), so I figured it'd be pretty easy to represent the A. I think this supports the group thinking that this is a one and done board -- since you wouldn't expect most opponents to call you with anything other than an A (and my history is inspiring curiosity). A Q72 or J72 would be a much better board since there are people tend to play As more than other b'way cards.
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