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Probabilistic River Question

cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
We are playing 10/20NL. The game has been running for 30+hours, centered around several spots that have kept the game running the entire time.

Villain in this hand is new to the table from a broken must move game. I get "pro" tendencies from him. . . youngish, comfortable, large buy-in, aggressive, seems familiar with others at the table, but I have nothing really solid so far.

He probably sees me as 40yo business guy with the usual TAG stereotype, but it's hard to tell as most of the regs at this casino have "outed" me at this point.

Villain has $6k. I cover.

A legendary Spot opens $80 UTG.
Reg calls.
I call MP K9cc
Villain calls on button.
Blinds fold.

Flop ($340): 642ccc. I flopped the king-high flush.
Spot checks.
Reg checks.
I check.
Villain checks.

Turn ($340): 642ccc 8h
Spot bets $250
Reg folds
I call
Villain raises to $1000 in rhythm
Spot grunch folds
I tank for 30 seconds.
I raise to $3000.
Villain announces "all in" in rhythm.
It's $2920 more for me to call.

Obviously, I only lose to 35cc and AXcc.

Question: What % of the time am I good here?

Comments

  • Bet the flop. There are a lot of worse hands that can call you, including sets, two pair, lower flushes, and the A-high flush draw.

    As played, your villain likely has one of three hands: 1) 35cc; 2) AXcc; or 3) a naked Ac. I think we can eliminate sets because he would have bet them on the flop. I also think we can eliminate an airball bluff because it's unlikely he'd bluff the turn into two players and even more unlikely that he'd push back against your raise, which looks extremely strong. The fact that you hold the K-high flush, makes a lower flush unlikely, as a good player would be more cautious with a Q-high flush or below.

    Add to that the fact that he can't think that he has much fold equity, and I think that without knowing more about this player, you're not getting the odds to call.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    You played this hand so unconventionally, I think it's actually hard for the V to put you on a specific hand. If you weren't going to bet the flop, I would have preferred that you check called all the way down e.g. Bart's discussion in this week's podcast to induce thin value bets from a perceived good player. Did you have a plan to either bet fold or bet call when you check raised?

    I would add to Jeremy's range on villain -- 88, 53 one club, 75 1 club (but discounted the straights as most don't play these hands non-suited).

    I would fold without more information, however. The quick bets also seem very strong to me and I'd put him on AcXc enough of the time.
  • shmed said

    I would add to Jeremy's range on villain -- 88, 53 one club, 75 1 club (but discounted the straights as most don't play these hands non-suited).
    88 is a good call.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    What's the stack size of the weak EP player? The reason I am asking is: If villain is a thinking player, wouldn't he bet all hand that beat you almost always on the flop in order to build the pot and potentially stack the spot? (Unless the spot is short, then deception against the two remaining players becomes more valuable)

    What was your reasoning behind checking the flop? I think given the way you played the hand, I have a really hard time getting away from it. Due to the previous action, it's pretty difficult to put you on such a strong hand, so he might shove worse? Hands like 75, 53, AcXx, sets, lower flushes (?). He also has to put you on lower value hands (like the same range I mentioned), right?
  • Even though a 4 bet over a back raise seems super strong this hand is played so strangely I am not going to fold. Yes, you are 300BBs deep in a single raised pot but if you had bet the flop and the villain raised I imagine that you very well play it as a call, call, call. With your line how can we fold? Although it would seem that he should bet most of his Acx hands on the flop (if he is doing this as a bluff). However, if he just decides to go with a smaller flopped flush or anything else that he thinks is good his SPR would dictate a shove. I think that he is shoving with worse or bluffing enough of the time to call with the given pot odds.
    Bart
  • cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
    whatsyourplay? said

    What's the stack size of the weak EP player? The reason I am asking is: If villain is a thinking player, wouldn't he bet all hand that beat you almost always on the flop in order to build the pot and potentially stack the spot? (Unless the spot is short, then deception against the two remaining players becomes more valuable)

    What was your reasoning behind checking the flop? I think given the way you played the hand, I have a really hard time getting away from it. Due to the previous action, it's pretty difficult to put you on such a strong hand, so he might shove worse? Hands like 75, 53, AcXx, sets, lower flushes (?). He also has to put you on lower value hands (like the same range I mentioned), right?
    The weak EP player was coming down off a heater. He had about 12k. I had about 7k.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    cl0r0x70 said

    The weak EP player was coming down off a heater. He had about 12k. I had about 7k.
    Thanks for the clarification. With this information, I can't fold in your spot. Of course it's not a fist-pump insta-call. But with these stack sizes, I can't imagine that he would check behind the nut flush or straight flush often enough.
    In case he actually did, make a mental note that he apparently loves to play tricky and deceptively (which migh be closer to FPS imo). He will be loosing way too much value in such spots 9 out of 10 times.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    results?
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