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ever fold top set?

Shark Posts: 108Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I open utg with QQ to 14 btn cold and Mega scared beginner kid ( very first time in casino from the village) defends from BB flop is Q9T he CRs me from 30 to 130 demonstraits always strength!!!
I call. Tu bricks off! He Checks I bet 130 he shove 290 he calls with KJ nuts! I knew that from the flop

Comments

  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    I rarely find a fold with top set ever. Board needs to be super scary for me to even think about it. That said, I like the call on the flop check raise, but I hate the bet on the turn. The flop check raise from scared money tells me that he has a big hand, and he's probably never folding. I would check back the turn and then evaluate the river. If the board pairs you can easily get stacks in anyway. On a non-paired river, I probably bet small and fold to a shove.

    That said, once you do bet the turn, you are essentially committed when he shoves. 160 to win 548. It's a neutral EV call-off. We are getting ~1/3.5 so we need to be good 1 in 4.5 times. You have 10 outs with 45 unseen cards. If there's even a samll chance he's doing this with 2 pair, you are getting the right price to profitably call.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    this is a super-tough fold, and i probably never make it. nervous nellies aren't going to pour money into the pot without a strong hand, normally, but they also might not be thinking all too clearly and might overplay a very strong hand even when faced with action that should make it apparent that, in this case, it probably is not the best hand. if he's really a 'beginner,' he easily has the capacity to overvalue his set of tens or nines....

    like, i remember a hand from a month or so back where i was up against a chick who was playing sort of gingerly, kind of awkwardly, who clearly didn't have much experience, at least live. she was there with her hipster boyfriend (who i remember took off his shirt and started to play just in his wife-beater T-shirt before he was told about the table dress code, which i thought was pretty hilarious). she'd raised from EP. i called with something fairly speculative, i don't remember what, thinking she absolutely would not be able to lay down top pair or an overpair, like, no matter what. (we weren't too deep, so this was probably a mistake even if what i just said was 100 percent true, but anyway.) she had not shown anything down. so i hit middle pair. she bet, i called. board kept coming out low. she kept betting out confidently, but i just got the sense that she really had little clue what she was doing. her bets were small, and i called her all the way down -- i'll admit, largely because of curiosity. and my hand was good. she showed air -- AQ....

    so while it seems as though players who are playing nervously or awkwardly will play tight and only bet when they have the nuts, there's that end of the spectrum that will grossly overvalue their holdings, because they're just plain bad. just my two cents....
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Even if you know he has the nuts here, you have the right odds to call to fill up if he's shoving for 290 total. If he had a lot more than 290 in his stack and he shoved for an amount that would not give you the right odds to call to fill up, there could be a case for a fold, but actually making it is easier said than done

    Folding the flop would just be insane. Sometimes there are these things called coolers in this game.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    One hand that comes to mind that I not only folded on the flop I insta folded on the flop..

    About 2 years ago really before I took hand reading too seriously I got in a multiway hand with a well known laggy/borderline maniac and another player in the pot below. The laggy guy will bet his weak hands and bluffs very very strong.. but surprisingly he slowplayed his montsers.. I would think even a dumb player would notice this but they never did.. But in this hand I had an easy fold ..

    I had pocket 7s and it was a raised to 25 or 30 pot 4-5 ways in a 5/5 200-500 capped game. I really dont remember the stacks but I had around 500 and the maniac had less.. I think like 300 or something like that..

    the flop came 7 5 6 all one suit.. the pot had 100 bucks in it . I am in the blinds I think and I checked because in those days that flop would have petrified me.. OR bets almost pot ..like 100 and the maniac MIN raises him.. its folded to me and I just have to laugh and I fold.. I mean maniac NEVER min raises and I didnt think I could just call... maybe today I could have given I think I could fold set today but then no way.. I would have had to shove the make sure I saw all two cards..

    I maybe remembering things a bit wrong but I distinctly remember I didnt think I had the right odds to call given my stacks and maniacs stack..

    ww
  • CruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    Board was QJTAcccc and old man coffee shoved the turn for $300 into a $250 pot.

    Sometimes top set is a bluffcatcher.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Rad_shark said

    I open utg with QQ to 14 btn cold and Mega scared beginner kid ( very first time in casino from the village) defends from BB flop is Q9T he CRs me from 30 to 130 demonstraits always strength!!!
    I call. Tu bricks off! He Checks I bet 130 he shove 290 he calls with KJ nuts! I knew that from the flop
    You can't fold here, he could play 99, TT, QT like this as well.
    But you can check back the turn, especially if the board is rainbow (not mentioned in your description).
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    Why are you guys suggesting checking back the turn? I wouldn't think a scared kid will be looking to check raise turn after check raising flop. Thats a somewhat advanced play. I would always bet turn and you are getting 4.5:1 you have to call even if he shows you his hand.
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    deeper games notwithstanding it is rarely going to be correct to fold top set and rarely is it a very big mistake to call/shove given redraw outs. In OP there is no way you can KNOW he had the nuts OTF. Undersets and even 2p sometimes are going to display strength. Admidedly OTT he is showing more strength but as pointed we has outs. Sort of like the "ever fold KK pre" discussion, if we start folding top set on a regular basis we will be making mistakes a LOT and succumbing to monsters under the bed syndrome.

    4 flush rivers and oneliners to straights with no cards to come are another story (although I admit to being stubborn and bluff catching with my sets perhaps a bit too often).
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    wendy weissman said

    One hand that comes to mind that I not only folded on the flop I insta folded on the flop..

    About 2 years ago really before I took hand reading too seriously I got in a multiway hand with a well known laggy/borderline maniac and another player in the pot below. The laggy guy will bet his weak hands and bluffs very very strong.. but surprisingly he slowplayed his montsers.. I would think even a dumb player would notice this but they never did.. But in this hand I had an easy fold ..

    I had pocket 7s and it was a raised to 25 or 30 pot 4-5 ways in a 5/5 200-500 capped game. I really dont remember the stacks but I had around 500 and the maniac had less.. I think like 300 or something like that..

    the flop came 7 5 6 all one suit.. the pot had 100 bucks in it . I am in the blinds I think and I checked because in those days that flop would have petrified me.. OR bets almost pot ..like 100 and the maniac MIN raises him.. its folded to me and I just have to laugh and I fold.. I mean maniac NEVER min raises and I didnt think I could just call... maybe today I could have given I think I could fold set today but then no way.. I would have had to shove the make sure I saw all two cards..

    I maybe remembering things a bit wrong but I distinctly remember I didnt think I had the right odds to call given my stacks and maniacs stack..

    ww
    More power to you. I can count on no hands the times I folded top set to a maniac on a wet board.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    For people advocating checking back turn can you elaborate on what range you give villain and why this line is optimal?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    CrazyCBettor said

    Why are you guys suggesting checking back the turn? I wouldn't think a scared kid will be looking to check raise turn after check raising flop. Thats a somewhat advanced play. I would always bet turn and you are getting 4.5:1 you have to call even if he shows you his hand.
    Agree with this. My previous post was misleading, I don't think checking back the turn is the best play. There are a million hands he'll call with.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    CrazyCBettor said

    Why are you guys suggesting checking back the turn? I wouldn't think a scared kid will be looking to check raise turn after check raising flop. Thats a somewhat advanced play. I would always bet turn and you are getting 4.5:1 you have to call even if he shows you his hand.
    I agree that it can be an advanced play, but it can also be the play of someone who doesn't know what they are doing ("mega -scared kid from the village") with the nuts. If Villian is not thinking about what we hold and only what he holds, I can see this play happening, especially at a low stakes game like 1/2. Unless proven otherwise, I don't think that the people I play against are anything other than level 1 thinkers. Double check raise from a beginner = the nuts. Always. that said, we still have to call given our outs and the price we are getting.

    I say that we can check back the turn because once Villian check raises flop so large, he's never folding. He's got 2pair+, and to someone that is a beginner, that's the nuts. He's not check raising the flop with a draw and an over card. He has a hand that he's going with, and we can play for stacks on the river.
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