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$3/5 flopped nut FD/gsSD

shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This is from a year or two ago, I might play it differently today, but I think it is interesting. V in the hand is a regular, clearly a thinking player, and tight I have never seen him get out of line. (when he's aggressive he has something reasonable) He actually loves to talk strat at the table and discuss whether other players are making good or bad plays. He's the kind of player that loves making tight folds and telling the table that it's the right play. I think he sees me as TAGgy -- we don't tangle much but when we do I often have the better hand (he always has some strong 2nd best hand too).

stacks $750 effective. I have As4s in the SB. V is in UTG +2 and raises largish to $40. One caller behind. I think about whether to fold here (I weight his range toward a strongish PP given his larger than average raise), but decide to flat thinking that if I hit this flop I may be able to stack him.

1) Optimal play here to raise, call or fold?

$120ish in the pot. Flop comes 5s 2h 9s, So I have a nut FD, GS SD.

2) Check or donk?

Lets say I donk $80, and he reraises to $200 fairly quickly.

3) Fold, call or raise?

Comments

  • Arenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    I like flatting his PF raise. Although you are out of position your hand plays well against his range if you get the right flop. You put him on a PP based on his raise so you're looking at probably 99+ but more likely JJ-AA.

    The flop is about as good as you could hope for without flopping the nut and the villain having a big spade in his hand or a wheel. If you are willing to play for stacks here, I think donking is good with the intention of getting the money in. Youve got 13 outs twice in this spot and maybe an A. You're in a coin flip situation. If he flats your donk, I think you continue on the turn and re-evaluate the on the river based on scare cards like a 7, 8, 6, maybe even a 4. I think I am willing to go broke here.

    You may consider betting a little smaller, if you want to induce a raise by the villain... $60-$70.
  • Fold or 3-bet pre - If you flat, you are 0/3 in 3 important aspects of winning a hand - having initiative, having the best hand, and having position. Even if you smash the flop, your lack of position prevents you from maximizing the value you can extract. Given this and your description of villain, I am much more likely to fold pre-flop than 3-bet.

    As played, you have to decide how committed villain will be to the hand. If he can fold over pairs here, I think you have to go for it. I would not donk - that looks like a top pair/over pair type-hand in his eyes and will have little fold equity. I would strongly favor a large check-raise OTF followed up by a large turn bet. Depending on his flop sizing, this may mean a check raise OTF to at least $225-$250, and if called, follow up with turn bet of at least $300.

    Even if called, you have pretty good equity, as an Ace is likely also an out (giving you 15 outs twice).

    Edit: If you really weight him towards a strong pocket pair, this is not the hand to stack him with. If you hit your Ace, he's likely done with the hand. (If he has AK/AQ you're in serious trouble if an Ace flops.) If you flop a flush, he will probably slow down as well, unless he has that suit in his PP and is willing to go with it. I would much rather be in this situation with a small pocket pair than a suited ace.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I agree with ddz. Flatting is by far your worst option here with that size open, the relative positions and the stacks involved. Your implied odds are low here since people very commonly nuke the pot with medium pairs 66-JJ which have you in bad shape and will not pay off if you hit hard unless you make a flush or straight and they have an overpair or better.

    Once you lead and get raised, I think that the best play is read dependent. If you think he is doing this with less than a set, then you can definitely get it in, especially if you think he is capable of raise folding. (Just remember to win the flip!) Some villains will flat with most of their one pair hands on this sort of board and so his range may be strongly weighted towards 999. If so, you can call and try to hit the turn and perhaps call again on the turn if he gives you sufficient odds.
  • Pf call is really bad IMO. You're OOP hoping to flop a draw. If you were OTB at least you'd have tons more options here.

    If have 44 here, you either kill the flop or you have nothing. It doesn't really matter how much he raises b/c the more he raises the easier it is to stack.

    With 56s here, you often flop a draw and it's hard to get the odds you need. At least you have the benefit of being pretty sure you're ahead when you flop 2 pair or trips.

    With A4s you're really looking to flop a flush draw or something crazy like AA4 or A42.

    If you hit a dream flop with a hand and you still don't know how to play it, which is the case here, you probably made a PF mistake.

    As played, if the guy likes to make "big folds" I like a shove back here because he might actually fold an overpair. If you think he's never folding, you have an interesting dilemma. If you hit the flush there's SOME chance he might fold later. If you hit the ace there's some chance he might fold. That's obviously bad because we might not get his money if we hit, but we pay off if we miss.

    On the other hand, if you get a non-spade, non-ace scary card (maybe a Q,K,9 perhaps), you can donk the turn and maybe he finds a "big fold" there.

    I'd tend to just ship back the flop and hope this guy mucks JJ face up to show the table how great he is.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Agree with others that preflop is not profitable. I'd consider calling OOP if effective stacks were > 1,5k. As played, you have an SPR of 7 on the flop, so it's hard for him to fold a strong overpair.

    On the flop, I don't like leading UNLESS you are pretty sure that he will raise with an overpair, but fold to a shove then. You'd need very specific reads to be confident about this, but I think this would be the only purpose leading would accomplish. If you don't think he will fold with a strong made hand, you can only check-call flop and either check-call or check-fold turn if you don't hit.

    Due to his large preflop raise, stack sizes become rather short postflop, which takes away the possibility to take alternative lines (like check-raising the turn, etc.). This is why calling pre is not a good play.
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    whatsyourplay? said

    Agree with others that preflop is not profitable. I'd consider calling OOP if effective stacks were > 1,5k. As played, you have an SPR of 7 on the flop, so it's hard for him to fold a strong overpair.

    On the flop, I don't like leading UNLESS you are pretty sure that he will raise with an overpair, but fold to a shove then. You'd need very specific reads to be confident about this, but I think this would be the only purpose leading would accomplish. If you don't think he will fold with a strong made hand, you can only check-call flop and either check-call or check-fold turn if you don't hit.

    Due to his large preflop raise, stack sizes become rather short postflop, which takes away the possibility to take alternative lines (like check-raising the turn, etc.). This is why calling pre is not a good play.
    Why do you say we can just call? Even against the very strong range of 99+ we have 50% exquity. Even if he never folds we are not making any mistake by getting it in.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    CrazyCBettor said

    Why do you say we can just call? Even against the very strong range of 99+ we have 50% exquity. Even if he never folds we are not making any mistake by getting it in.
    I we know for sure that he has a decent made hand like an overpair and there's no fold equity, than there's no purpose of raising the flop. Of course it might be still +EV if we have sufficient equity. But our aim is not to identify one +EV line and go with it, but instead to identify the MOST +EV line.

    If there's no fold equity AND villain will call additional bets if we hit, then flattcaling the flop should be more EV than raising.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    So yes, I agree there are definitely better ways of playing this hand (as is the case with most hands I post) and I appreciate all the thoughts, very helpful.

    As played, I thought long and hard about 3-betting the flop, which I knew would be a commit. However, unlike other times -- he made tight folds when his bet was reraised -- not when he was re-raising himself -- and I felt very strongly that he wasn't raise/folding and I had no FE equity here.

    Then it was a question of how much equity I had -- and one mistake I made was that I omitted the A overcard outs -- I pegged myself with 13 FD/SD outs. Actually propokertooling it later, assuming he has KKs for as a proxy for an overpair, I am

    Hold'em Simulation ?
    990 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: 5s 2h 9s
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    As 4s 54.75% 542 0
    Kh Kd 45.25% 448 0

    and slightly higher as a 56% favorite if he has AKo. Even if he had AA I had 46%, and was a big underdog only to 99 at 33% -- all things alluded to above.

    So I decided to flat -- I needed only 23% equity based on his raise size which i definitely had. The turn bricked and I check / folded to his shove.

    Anyway, as always helpful to discuss mistake hands. Lessons (all discussed above):
    1) 3-bet or fold best with this kind of hand at these stacks OOP -- and because I pretty much knew what he had, it's probably a fold for reasons articulated well above. Brudre definitely feel free to argue here, I understand the rationale for your point.
    2) When you hit a monster draw, you will get more fold equity OOP by C/R rather than leading out, especially on a drawy board where an overpair will likely believe it is best and feel a need to protect their equity.
    3) Make sure you really think about all of your outs -- had I considered the additional potential 3 A outs (I think this is right, sets are a very small part of his range here) I would have approached my equity and the hand differently.
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