In one of the recent podcasts (sorry I don't remember which one) Bart stated that it is better to win about 55 to 60 percent of your river value bets than 90%. I understand the concept behind this, but I have to wonder if the math always works to make this true.
For example: Let's say that I value bet the river 10 out of 40 opportunities with a 90% success rate. To keep the math easy let's say that each value bet is $100.
If I am successful on 9 of these 10 bets, I win a net $800 (win 900 lose 100 = net 800).
If I value bet 20 times instead of 10 and am successful 60% of the time, I win a net $400 (win 1200 lose 800 = net 400).
If I value bet 30 times instead of 10 and am successful 60% of the time, I win a net $600 (win 1800 lose 1200 = net 600).
I need to value bet 40 times instead of 10 and be successful 60% of the time just to net the same $800 as the 90% example (win 2400 lose 1600 =net 800).
Is there a flaw in my analysis here, and if so, what is it? Thanks in advance for any response!