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Structured Hand Analysis and Pot Odds

BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
edited November 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Interesting one from $5-10 just now at commerce.

V1 Sb $1000
V2 BB $1385--winning reg.
V3 BTN $1135--a bit tilty young guy having a bad session but not clueless

Hero covers and raises UTG to $35 with 2 2. V3, V1 and V2 call.

FLOP: 2 4 5

V1 leads for $110. V2 raises to $300, Hero calls. V3 moves in for $1100 total. V1 folds. V2 moves in for $1350 total. Back to hero $3000, $1050 to call.
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Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Wow what action. I am really hard pressed to see you ahead here. That said if one has say ace high flush draw and the other villain has a straight then you have the correct odds to call off

    Even better if one has 66. You are really only in rough shape if one has a flush draw and the other has 44 or 55. All in their range since no one threebet you.

    Getting 3:1 you only need 25% equity. So i would say i would call mainly based on what my read is of the good reg. Hes the one who raised on the flop. If he can do that with combo draws often then i would call. If he doesnt raise as often w draws but made hands then i would lean towards folding. I am assuming tilt boy can be way wider.

    Ran a reasonable range of both villains of all sets all 63 suited ax to a8ss. 66 three combos and 33 three combos. And you and got your equity at almost 50%. So its a call

    I am discounting overplays of overpairs w no straight draws. If you saw straights and flush draws i would be pretty happy with my call
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    I think we can take out 33 and 66 here for everyone. For flushes A3, A4, and A6 seems like the only ones plausible.

    I ran a range of only sets, str8s, A3, A4ss, A6ss and I got us at 24.3%

    Hammah you know this player pool a lot better then me, do you really see winning players show up with 33 and 66 here?
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited November 2014
    V2 and V3 do not have straights in their range, calling a UTG open. Or rather, they don't have the NUT straight, due to calling a UTG raise preflop. If you just look back one street you'll see that's nearly impossible.

    A3 suited is possible. But since 36 is out, as both of the guys all-in are decent players and not calling with that preflop, I think it really skews one of them at least to having a set, in which case you're drawing dead.

    I think it's reasonable to assume that one of them has the nut flush draw, and I think you can throw 66 out as a hand also. What's that, a gutshot? I'm pretty sure V2 isn't raising and re-shipping with 66 and if I'm on the button as v3 with 66, and I see lead, raise, call, 66 is the easiest fold of my life. No one has 66. 33 same thing. It's SLIGHTLY more feasible than 66, but again, if the button has 33 he would have to be on pretty insane monkey tilt to just ship it in on the flop with 0 fold equity, and there's no way the winning reg in the BB is going to re-ship with 33 there.

    I have no idea where some of these hands are coming from.

    If we just go ahead and give one of these guys the nut flush draw, that cuts down on the number of A3 suited the other player can have, which would be a flopped straight. If one guy has Ax spades, which is an easy jam with this much action, then there are only three more combos of A3 suited(diamonds, hearts, clubs) and that leaves 12 combos of higher sets.(6 combos each of 4s and 5s)

    In my mind, an important question is could one of these guys possibly be overplaying 45, which we crush, and then the other guy might have a straight or a draw which would give us the proper equity to call.

    The tilting guy on the button could easily have 45s, maybe even 45 offsuit if he's really playing loose, and if he so he might just ship it on the flop. If he does have 45 though, and say the BB has a straight, then that takes away two of your outs to fill up, and your boat is also no good even if you do hit it, since it would make the other guy a better boat. You'd go from having 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river, to having 1 out on the turn and 4 on the river if you're up against 45 and a straight.

    It really feels like you're the one getting squeezed here. I'm pretty sure you're behind nearly always on this flop, and in my mind like roughtly 70%-80% of the time you're going to have around 5% equity.

    Tough spot for sure, but if you give both players, especially the winning reg out of the BB, realistic ranges then it's a fold.

    If you were to give me this action, and say, which hand would you rather have, AT of spades or 22, i'll take the AT of spades all day every day.
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    The 2 calls from your UTG raise preflop & the crazy flop action makes me believe you are up against a higher set. Thinking a fold is in order (I would fold). Thinking V2 is going to show up with the set of 4s or 5s.

    I believe Bart you are going to say pot odds dictate a call vs their range - if that is the case, please describe how much overlay you got by calling off.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    i think we can cut way down on the number of 45 combos here. first, there are only two combos of 45 suited. plus, they would have had to call pre with that hand AND be choosing to get it in with those hands when there has been a lot of strength shown ahead of them on this flop.

    i think V2 and V3 are skewed very heavily toward straights and sets and NFD's (which also is a gutshot).

    btw there's no way in hell either of these guys should have 33 or 66 (and probably not 36) in their range. in order to, they'd have to be labeled 'clueless' in the OP

    V2's range:

    NFD/gutshot (8 total combos without AKss, which would have re raised pre probably): let's say he takes this line a little less than 50% of the time -- 3 combos. not more than that b/c the raise to 300 seems a little small for a hand that wants fold equity.
    sets: (6 combos): 100% included -- 6 combos
    straights (A3 suited only; 4 combos) -- 75% included (calls pre 75% of the time then takes this post flop line all the time) -- 3 combos

    V3's range:

    NFD/gutshot (8 total) -- 75% -- 6
    sets: all 6 combos
    straights: 4 combos (most of A3 suited plus another combos for offsuit if he's tilting)

    i plugged in these ranges and i get 11.4% equity for us. seems low, but in these scenarios we are either behind with a fairly slim chance to fill up, or we're drawing dead to a 2, or our opponents have all the spades and all the threes to suck out on us

    when i then add in 45cc and 45dd to opponent ranges, it bumps our equity to 15.5%.

    but either way, we don't have enough equity to call.

    i am surprised these are this low though -- has anyone else used these ranges and can double check?
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Your draw ranges for the villains block each other entirely. That means you are always up against at least one made hand, sometimes two. This is terrible for you equity.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    Does that range seem reasonable?
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    floppedawheel said:
    Does that range seem reasonable?
    Seems about right to me especially given the description of the villains as "winning reg" and "decent not clueless player"

    And yes I'm an idiot, there are 3 combos of each set, not 6. Derp.
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    edited November 2014
    This one is really interesting guys. Here is what I thought that the ranges were:

    V2-- 55, 44, A3s, 67ss and 45s. I have respect for this guy and think he's a decent player. I doubt he has just the nut flush draw here as if I were him I'd probably flat the Sb lead since that was really one of the first times the SB had led out into a raised multiway pot and we are drawing to the nuts. No need to drive anyone out behind us. If I had 45s I would play this as a raise flop get it in w V3 after pf raiser flats behind.

    V3-- He's a bit more wide than you guys have given him. He's got 55, 44, 45s, A3s, 63s and some combo and nut flush draws. Interesting thing here is if I also give him a few 45os and A3os it actually doesn't change our equity at all. Probably something to do with the combinatorics and having the other villain more likely to have the other types of hands.

    I attached what Poker Cruncher spit out. I actually have the villains swapped there hence u see V2 showing AJss. Needless to say I think it is actually very difficult to estimate our equity on the fly given these ranges. It is quite a complex holdem hand. It's times like these where I wish I could pull off the old pull the iPhone out and Crunch the scenerio. It's something I've never been able to successfully pull off but I'm going to practice it since I don't think it breaks any rules. Btw no way anyone has 33 or 66 here.

    Anyway, I called off and V2 had 55, V3 Q 3

    Bart

    640 x 1136 - 158K
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    guess he was tilting pretty damn bad lol. and you'd really think V2 would always play both combos of 45s?

    i knew 67ss was in there but i didn't wanna bother throwing in half or quarter combo of that for simplicity.

    definitely a tough one to calculate on the fly. but even after a little consideration it does seem that you'd need a good number of 45 in there, and there are only two combos of 45 suited.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    turn deuce, river five and you win BBJ?
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    edited November 2014
    Flopped--

    I don't think adding additional 45 combos really does much in effecting our equity for the reasons stated in my post. It's actually much much worse if we are up against a made straight and 45. I just punched them all in for V3 and it only ups our equity by like 1 percent. I don't think V2 ever has 45os.

    Bart
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    that is so counterintuitive and just goes to show how faulty our assessments can be in the moment compared to the actual math. cool hand. sorry it didn't go your way -- or did you bink the deuce?
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    Well-- it's not really counterintuitive when you take into the fact that when one player has 45 it's less likely that the other has 45 and that 45 cuts our full house outs out when we are up against a made hand. Only time we are loving to see 45 is when both players have it or one has a draw and the other has 45.

    Bart
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    yup -- just curious how long you tanked. i'd have had the clock called on me on this one prob
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Another problem with bottom set when someone has 45 and someone has a straight is, you only fill up when 45 fills up to beat you

    In practice, I probably would have said lol cooler and called with these stack sizes. It wasn't inctedibly deep

    I would have convinced myself that V3 shipped because my hand looks kind of like a stubborn overpaid by calling the flop. So he can have a wider range. Then V2 just thought he had enough equity against V3 and that you might not necessarily call, so he doesn't necessarily have to have a set. He also shouldn't have a straight if he defended from the blinds and he's competent
  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    edited November 2014
    I think one of the things that you can all learn about this hand from my approach in capped games as an habitual "topper off" is that in multiway pots if it's close I call.

    If I am closing the action and am within a few equity points of being correct taking slightly the worst of it in a big pot in the short term leads to huge stack leverage and intimidation considerations later on in that session since I'm going up to the max anyway if I lose. It also shows some of the more nitty regs that I am a gambler and they may bluff at me less making bet folding for value even more profitable.

    Maybe the two Davids, guys that I think have a master of their image in cap games can speak to this. After we buy-in back up to the cap after we may lose in a spot like this it doesn't take too long to have control of the table after winning a few hands again. If we end up dragging in the pot in a big multiway spot our hourly may go up by as much as double for the rest of that session.

    Bart
  • LVH Posts: 171Member
    The initial shove is THE quintessential tilted young guy play. I'd put him on this kind of draw, probably more than is really justifiable. Like, I'd pretty much just pencil it in. He's calling with all kinds of garbage, praying for a scenario exactly like this one, where he can just jam into a big pot with decent equity on a lowish and scaryish board.

    From his perspective, it's somewhat hard for anyone to have much on this flop, especially you, the UTG PFR. He's probably not giving V2 the credit he deserves because he is on tilt. And even if he gets called, he has a lot of ways to win. Generically, I'd expect him to have even some worse hands than this one. Like, 65 with one spade wouldn't shock me, but I don't know this guy or game.

    V2 could be aware of all this and might call somewhat lighter than we might think. It's really a question of how afraid he is of your hand. If he's really thinking it through, he might expect you to fold overpairs, which is exactly what your hand looks like, allowing him to play HU against what is probably a draw.

    The major cause for concern is the flop raise by V2. At this point, I think it becomes pretty player dependent and some live reads enter into it. It does smell a lot like, "I have a monster and I need to charge the draws more than 110." At the lower levels, someone might play TT or JJ this way, but he doesn't sound like that type.

    He might sometimes fold 45 suited preflop here, especially to you. I'd still probably call because I had a set and I only had to beat one guy.
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    I've heard Tuchman say many times that he usually takes the higher variance route in close spots because it helps his image and makes him look looser than he really is. I definitely think that's a good way to play, especially if you know you can handle losing a big pot, and you know you won't tilt, but you're pretty sure your opponents will, especially if you suck out with a draw or w/e.

    However, in this specific hand, I think if I'm playing my A+ game I can find a fold on this flop, and it's a little bit too much in the direction of losing play to just go with it.

    In practice, I think a lot of us stack off here sometimes, but if I was to really take the time, in the heat of the moment, to think specifically about v2's likely holdings, it becomes more and more of a fold. Even if v2 had A3 of diamonds and the other player ended up having A6 spades, it's not like a disastrous fold. It's like a break even-ish play there, and that's the BEST case scenario. If you fold, you're either missing out on a neutral EV spot, or avoiding calling off 100bb's drawing dead.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I agree that it's not that bad for your image if you get stacked quickly and painlessly in a big pot. what's bad is when you're grinding down slowly and painfully

    But it does wonders for your image when you win a 3 way all-in

    So it's higher EV to gamble even in slight -EV spots if you can afford it
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