1/2 NLHE @ Venetian, 100-300max.
Hero has been playing for about an hour. I'm not entirely confident I'd call my image TAG so much as SLAG (slightly loose/aggro). My first hand I ended up cold 3b'ing a regular who I read for iso'ing UTG limper and scooping up pot preflop. I've also opened quite a few pots, raised limpers in position and been 3b twice now, both times I had to fold cause I was holding something like KQ which was playing AWFUL OOP v. their 3b range. So I'd say I've been opening/raising enough that I'm not exactly looked at as "tight" anymore.
The villain in this hand is one of the most noticeable marks on the table, and is a HUGE station. The only time he deviates from his passive (calling) play seems to be when it's checked to him OTB and then he often bombs like $20 into a pot of like $6 (only overbets when pot is wicked small). I won't go so far as to call him positionally aware, but he'll def. try to pick up an orphaned pot if he is in position.
Hero is playing ~$200, Vil covers.
Hero AQ UTG raises $10, folds to button, button (Vil) calls, sb fold, bb fold.
HU, Pot $23
Hero bets $12, Vil calls.
HU, Pot $47
Hero bets $30, (*Vil looks back at cards) Vil calls.
HU, Pot $107
Hero bets $70
I'm pretty used to betting here for value, but I kept thinking about it more and more and am not so sure it's as good a spot for thin value as I think.
The river completes OESD, turn brings in FD. I was betting to get value out of QX hands, but the river may scare those holdings - on the other hand, would a QX not look at the river as counterfeiting their kicker and ergo might encourage a call? I'm also owning AsXo hands, but what AsXo combos am I beating that peeled the flop (As2o)? I mean I've seen people peel with 2 overs, but it's a Qhi flop, he's suppose to have 2 overs?
Okay, so then if I think he's calling me with more hands that beat me than I beat, I should check/call? We're not really check/folding top 2 here, are we? I'm not. I don't like the check/call line cause the busted flush draws should all have some showdown value and often will just check back, same holds true for all QX hands.
Which I guess leaves me with my original thought when I bet that river. I'm bet/folding the river. I do not expect him to raise with anything less than a boat (sometimes the nut flush) because 1/2 players often fail to get value on these board textures w/o the mortal nuts. So if I'm not folding, and he's unlikely to raise me, I might as well bet because these people surprise me all the time with the trash they call down with and I'm rarely punished for betting in this spot when I am beat.
Thoughts on river play?