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First posted hand - AA

Yo everyone,
Wynn 1/3 game. btn straddle is on for 6. I'm utg with AA and raise to 22. Btn calls and bb calls 3 ways. Flop KT8r. Bb checks I bet 45, both call. Turn is 4. I bet 120 btn calls, hu.

The button has been playing all night and it is now like 2pm. He's been pretty loose, juicing pots up, stationy, and capable of bluffing.

River is Q, no possible flushes. With 440 in the middle he's got about 325 left. What's my play?


  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I'd think about the button's range. Given his lack of raise on the flop 3 handed, I discount flopped 2 pair and sets. I also think he's probably (but not always) folding 8s on the turn.
    Hands we lose to: J9 (OESD on flop) AJ (gutshot on flop) KQ, QT (1 pair on flop)
    Hands we still beat: KJ T9 JT AT AK, (1 pair on flop); QJ, AQ,(draws on flop). Discount AK and perhaps AQ a bit as hands a button might 3-bet

    I don't think better hands are ever folding -- question is whether you can get value from inferior 1 pair hands.
    I think we want to bet enough to get 1 pair hands to call, so I am thinking of betting small -- another $120 bet. If he shoves is $205 remaining, we are getting 4.5 to 1, great odds. But it's so strong to RR a 3-barrel bluff, I think it comes down to whether you think he's capable -- most opponents cannot and I would fold (but I realize you describe him as bluffy).

    Your eff stack is great for a river shove, but I worry that in a 1/3 game if the sizing would only get better to call and all one pair hands to fold.

    Alternatively, you can consider check call if you think you can induce from worse -- I bring up based on your bluffy description -- but as default I wouldn't -- seems like most 1 pair hands would check behind, and there are few combinatorics of draws that missed that might try to bluff the river.
  • Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    The Q is prolly the worse card in the deck, but this is a bet fold. I don't like betting the same amount because sometimes people view it as weak and may make a move. Bet $150 and fold to a shove. As stated earlier check calling is prolly the worst option.
  • BugsyBugsy Posts: 40Subscriber
    I believe you have to bet a decent value bet here of $225.00-$250.00.

    We beat too many hands to throw in a small value bet. (Hands we still beat: KJ T9 JT AT AK, (1 pair on flop); QJ, AQ,(draws on flop). Discount AK and perhaps AQ a bit as hands a button might 3-bet) And I wouldn't necessarily discount AK or AQ either because at this level (from what I've experienced so far at the tables), a lot of these guys (the fishy ones) will limp in with those hands.
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