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Nut flush draw against a likely overpair

whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I have A9 of diamonds in the big blind and there's a five dollar straddle. Three players in the field call and I call, the villain on the straddle (who has me covered) raises to 18 more, everybody calls in front of me so there's about a hundred in, 18 for me to call. I don't love it since I basically have to hit trip nines or a flush to be good but I do call, maybe I could have folded. The flop comes 237 with two diamonds. I check and the original raiser bets out 65 into about 115 everyone folds to me. I have about 160 left.. This particular villain would play JJ or better this way pretty much every time but I guess he could just have AK, pretty unlikely, though. I also assume that he will shove on the turn on any card so if I hit my flush I'm going to stack him but if the turn is a blank it'll be $100 to win about $350 (the pot will be about $250 on the turn and he'll bet out about $100.

Do I check-raise shove to pick up the tiny bit of fold equity the five percent of the time he has AK? Call flop and check call the turn since I'd likely be about a 2 to 1 dog and getting 3.5 to one from the pot? Call flop and donk shove the turn no matter what repping a set and just maybe getting fold equity against something like JJ?

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Do you think the villain could also be raising the straddle light trying to take the dead money down PF, and then c-betting the raggedy flop? Without knowing more, this seems very possible and his range seems much much wider than a pocket pair or maybe AK. But you seem to be putting him on a strong hand, I wasn't there.

    With your stack size, I'd check raise AI on the flop to maximize fold equity. You may be ahead alot with A high here too.
  • whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
    I know this villain and he pretty much never has rags. Maybe he'd show up with 88 or 99 occasionally but he's raising for value almost every time here and I think he would raise more with something like TT or 88.

    I'm leaning towards the checkraise on the flop as well. It just seems like I've got enough equity to call all the way down so why not shove.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    shmed said

    With your stack size, I'd check raise AI on the flop to maximize fold equity. You may be ahead alot with A high here too.
    +1
  • Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    This is a standard shove. Get it in vs JJ you have 46%, vs 88 you have 55%, vs A7 you have 46%...If your not wanting to go with hands like this in these situations you can't call pre with these types of hands.
  • whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
    I did check/shove and with these stack sizes/bet sizes I think I agree that the hand pretty much plays itself. The only wrinkle is that I know this villain pretty well and I think he has QQ, KK, or AA, here probably 95% of the time or more. He could have JJ or TT but I've seen him bet more preflop with those kinds of hands to try to thin the crowd.

    I also wonder whether check calling flop and donk shoving the turn gets slightly more fold equity. I feel like that line looks so much like a set or two pair that I might get slightly more folds from overpairs.
  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 789Subscriber
    FWIW I use a 25x rule on calling with AXs. I came up with this based on its about 3% chance to flop 2 pair+, and about 1% chance to flop the flush.

    I believe Bart in one of his podcasts stated he liked something higher (30x? 35x?) but I fall in the "recreational player who doesn't play enough to show up and fold for 3 hours" so the 25x rule works well enough for me.

    I'm also assuming that in your game A9 isn't strong enough to win if you flop an ace as you'll either be outkicked, or no one has an ace and you don't get any action when you bet the flop. If that's not the case and A9 can hold in your game just with top pair, then maybe you can make the call a little less than 25x.

    But I agree with everyone else as played, CR AI on the flop.

    Roger
  • whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
    I think the call on the flop may be the thing to focus on here, Roger. I don't think I'm ahead if I either flop just an A or a 9 on this hand. The odds of flopping a flush draw are about 8 to 1 and I'm getting about 6 to 1 to call the raise so I think it's fine to call if I'm going to go with any flush draw but otherwise maybe I can fold to the straddler's raise.
  • Gordon806 Posts: 59Member
    If you want to do anything besides shoving the flop you have to think if I turn the flush is he going to get scared and fold so I don't get the rest of his money or how much more fold equity am I going to have on the turn that I don't have on the flop? If he is calling the flop shove he is most likely calling the turn shove.
  • whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
    I agree, Vincent, that's I'm probably not getting a lot more fold equity playing it check/call, donk shove but I bet I get some more. Doesn't that line just scream set?
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thinking about it from the perspective of what he has,

    If he has a draw also or a weak made hand susceptible to overs (eg 7) he would more likely call flop shove than turn. If the turn bricks draw or over card comes he only has one card to come. Of course you risk him hitting his draw.

    If he has what he believes is a strong made hand (I would say at least tens plus on this board) then I think fe on flop vs turn really depends on how scary the turn card is. An Overcard (A is scariest), board pairing (esp 7), and fd completing all increase your FE. Another blank probably decreases your fe as his hand feels even more secure w one card to come.

    Problem here is that the a and fd increase your fe but also give you the best hand usually. So to increase ev you are basically looking for a k or board pair so you can represent something stronger than you have now.

    I think a set is something most people consider on both streets but are usually "oh well I call" on either street w a hand as strong as a premium pp given your stack size and flop texture. This is why sets are so valuable despite bein lower than str or flush, it is so disguised. Are you thinking a very strong hand isn't scared of seeing another card so it's even stronger to call flop shove turn? C/r flop is also a strong line too, and given the fd many would play a set this way. But curious to learn more about your thinking and experience on how people play sets.
  • whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
    I'm just thinking that a check raise on the flop looks a lot like either a flush draw OR a set but donk shoving a blank turn card looks a lot more like a set than a flush draw since a lot of people would check a flush draw on the turn, hoping to see a free river.

    I'm just wondering, in a vacuum, whether a check raise shove on the flop or a check call flop, donk shove turn has more fold equity. Couldn't donk shoving the turn be a really strong play with medium draws like flush draws and OESD?
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