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Its better to bet bigger on the turn if you will be forced to pay off the river due to stack sizes.

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
Not sure I agree with you on this article and here's why. In your example you give lets say the guy has what you say - nut flush draw (12 outs). If you bet your entire stack (200 into 235) he would need 45% equity which he isnt getting so if he calls that good - a mistake by him and he may call here but probably not if hes a good player. Also he probably wont if hes on a naked flush draw (9 outs). If you bet 1/2 pot like you mentioned (125 into 235) he is much more likely to call getting 2.88 to 1 and he knows hes getting the other 75 in your stack so hes basically in for 200 to win 435 - again 45% but he doesn't have 45% equity with one card to come and 12 outs. So by betting less you are forcing him to MORE LIKELY make a mistake on the turn which is what you want vs him CORRECTLY folding. See what I'm saying? Yes there is an argument for just getting the money now but I would think in a cash game betting less here is the correct play in the long term.


  • Dan you are doing the math wrong here. If we bet $125 into $235 then he is calling $125 to win $435 not $200 to win $435 as he is not putting the extra money in on the river when he doesnt hit. And if you are always going to pay of that extra $75--this is the whole point of the article.

  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    My math isnt wrong - I'm saying he will be escientially be paying that assuming he hits (Referring to HIS odds - we of course want to make sure we are not giving him the right price and I"m saying we arent even if we bet 1/2 pot vs all in). If he doesnt hit than yes you're right. Your argument is youre not charging the draw as much as you could but my point is if most of the time he's not paying that price most of the time w 9 outs you should lower the price while still not giving him correct odds. Like you say in your podcasts you WANT draws to call. Am I missing something?
  • Dan,

    His odds are $125 to win $435, not $200 to win $435. Thats the difference in turn sizing. If we bet larger ($all in) his odds are $200 to win $435, if we only bet $125 its $125 to win $435.
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