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Move My Opponent (who has an awkward stack) In On The River or Aim To Get SOME Value?

Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I've been working with the title concept for about a week now and I haven't reached a conclusive decision and I haven't yet found info covering this particular spot on the site; closest has been Bart talking about "'if I call the turn and the river bricks out, don't I have to call the river also' and he says 'no'".
I lean towards value over shoving. Let me know your thoughts.

I've had a couple live spots where I didn't know if I should move my opponent in (lower likelihood of getting called by worse) or get another streets worth of value (higher likelihood of getting called by worse), and then what my follow-up action is to a check/shove.

Spot: 1/2 NLHE, Cash. Villain starts hand with ~$220. I start w/ ~$600.
I flopped 2pair HULTA, A5, after raising PF and isolating the big blind; the flop was A-5-3 (2tone) with $20 in the pot.
Opponent checks and I bet $10, and BB villain check-calls.
The Turn is an offsuit 8, he check calls my $25 dollar bet.
The River is an offsuit 3, he checks, holding ~$200 behind.
I tank and check-back.
Why the River check-back? I was thinking about betting pot-size, but then because of his stack size, I didn't want to have to commit to bet-calling a check/shove by villain (once gain...because of his stack size), because theoretically he should only be running this river check/shove line with a hand that beats me, right?, and if I move him in, aren't I folding out all hands that I have beat?
I know Bart and Chan, etc., continually stroking the bet/fold, but I don't believe I should be bet/folding this spot because of the stack-dynamics, but I'm wondering, in spite of the money I already have invested (forget about SPR) can I legitimately bet/fold here?? I'm brought back to what Bart says about calling the Turn, but NOT having to call the River, i.e. "I don't have to bet/call this river".
*I've also considered the line of making a small value bet in this spot, ~$50, but because that River bet would be 25% of his remaining stack and by then >30% of his total stack, shouldn't I just be moving him in?
It's like this weird mental see-saw I'm on with the pros vs. cons of each River action whilst each river action having it's own caveat.

Thanks ya'll!

Comments

  • luckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    I bet $15/$40/$110

    But definitely value bet this river. We beat everything right? I mean he's not c/c A8 on turn, and he's putting in a raise with A3 on either the flop or turn. I can't really see you getting raised on the river, but if he shoves you have to call. He has A9-AK like all the time here.
    by 1Vince
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    You can always bet/fold if you want to. Limit players often do it getting way better odds.
  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    I think you are misunderstanding the concept. You are almost treating it as any time you bet the river he will either fold or raise and you will have to fold.

    You have to bet this river. The fact is typically people are going to be check / calling you not check / raising you. Dont move him all in. Bet like a 3/4 pot bet.

  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    Just because it is possible he will raise if you bet does not make it probable. In this case it seems really unlikely. If you think he will call with a worse hand all in x% of time but a lower bet y% of time its pretty simple math to figure out what bet sizing is right.
  • Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
    luckyspewy said:
    I bet $15/$40/$110

    But definitely value bet this river. We beat everything right? I mean he's not c/c A8 on turn, and he's putting in a raise with A3 on either the flop or turn. I can't really see you getting raised on the river, but if he shoves you have to call. He has A9-AK like all the time here.
    Your sizing sequence gave me something to really think about and it truly is much better than mine.
    Thinking about it more clearly, especially after he just check-calls the Turn and follows it with a River check from up front, there is NO WAY I'm beat here, and it's true, I can't check this river back.

    I was also thinking at the time "if he check-shoves here, I'm always beat." But I realize now that that isn't necessarily the case. I can bet/call the river and not fret about always being 2nd best.
  • Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
    Topset1610 said:
    I think you are misunderstanding the concept. You are almost treating it as any time you bet the river he will either fold or raise and you will have to fold.

    You have to bet this river. The fact is typically people are going to be check / calling you not check / raising you. Dont move him all in. Bet like a 3/4 pot bet.

    Topset1610, I like what you're saying here about "typically", it's bringing me back to reality and not looking for monsters under the bed.

    I'm trying to optimize my River thinking structure; if he folds, I have no further decision. If he calls, I have no further decision, my whole thing was If he shoves, I have a decision to make, and I don't feel I should always be snap-calling here. In the end I know I should be bet-calling here plenty.
    Are you always bet/calling here?
  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    Vince said:
    Topset1610 said:
    I think you are misunderstanding the concept. You are almost treating it as any time you bet the river he will either fold or raise and you will have to fold.

    You have to bet this river. The fact is typically people are going to be check / calling you not check / raising you. Dont move him all in. Bet like a 3/4 pot bet.

    Topset1610, I like what you're saying here about "typically", it's bringing me back to reality and not looking for monsters under the bed.

    I'm trying to optimize my River thinking structure; if he folds, I have no further decision. If he calls, I have no further decision, my whole thing was If he shoves, I have a decision to make, and I don't feel I should always be snap-calling here. In the end I know I should be bet-calling here plenty.
    Are you always bet/calling here?
    I am always betting here.

    I am expecting to have to make a decision on whether this is a bet call maybe 1 in 10 times here. I was pointing out that the fact that you might have to fold to a river check / raise is not a good reason to check. Moving him all in so that you will avoid having to make a decision on whether or not to call a check / raise is also wrong.

    Based off of the description of the hand I would expect villain to have some AX hand. In this spot I think you will almost always be good. What hands can he really have that beat you here?

    A3 or 35 are unlikely. Villain will most likely not check / call on the flop and turn.
    A8 possible, but again villain will most likely not check / call turn
    33 or 55 - 55 and 33 is combinations wise unlikely and again I would not expect him to take a check / call flop and turn line and then go for a check / raise.

    So yes in this spot if I was to get check / raised on the river I would have to really think about it. Each spot is different and depends on villain, pot odds, and a ton of other factors.

    The main point of my original post was that not betting, because you are worried about getting check / raised is wrong. It is rarely going to happen. The large majority (like probably 9 in 10 times) is going to go you bet and villain either folds or calls.

  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I think this falls less under "bet folding" concerns and more under "if you don't value own yourself occasional your not value betting enough". You have to value bet this river with 2 pair and then evaluate a raise. One thing at a time. You have to value bet before you have to worry about bet folding.
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