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Worst Fold with AK and top two pairs?

chengzy Posts: 4Member
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Local casino, $2-3.

Villan is a reg in this casino, and I played with him for 3 hours. He played good, a little loose, but never out of line. He made two big calls VS fish and his hands were good.

On this hand, Villan has around $700, Hero covers.

Villian opens $13 in MP. Fold to me in button, I 3bet to $35 with AKo
All fold to Villian, and Villian called.

Flop A:c: K:c: 8:s:
Villian donk $50. I raise to $150. Villian called quickly.

Turn 4:h:
Villian shove with $500

My thought: this is a 3bet pot, so A8 is unlikely. KK,AA is unlikely. His range is on AKo, AKs, 88
If I call, I am calling $500 and hope a chop. So after thinking a while, someone called the clock on me, and I folded.

I talked with my friends, they all said I made a bad fold. Is this a bad fold ?

Comments

  • luckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    He donk shoves 500 into 370? Looks more like !0c Jc-Qc Jc. I think if he donks a set on flop he donks to 3 bet it, not flat oop. And if he flats, he flats to c/r turn, not to donk overbet shove. His line doesn't add up to me, this is a must call in my book. Maybe you can do a celebratory fist pump whilst calling, but that's entirely up to you.
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Even though the line does not make sense, I feel that he is shoving with a value hand (case Kings or Aces; 8s). His "possible" thought line is that he waited for a safe turn -or- he does not want an action-killing card on the river to come. He might feel you are committed based on your flop raise (aggressive action theorem).
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    Wtf? How is this a fold? If he has a set gg, I'm calling allllways here in a 3-bet pot.

    It's a bad fold regardless of results.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    firstly a few observations just from what you said about villain... "hes good" " a little loose"

    loose isnt really good imho.. especially when they open late. most laggy (ish) players know that when they raise they win more pots.. so they raise more..

    if he was raising and a tight player from early position then flatting is fine to keep his dominated aces in .. Here you dont have that issue..YOUR range is way higher..

    There is a fault with your hand reading..

    You do not TRY to find a hand that beats you.. You find ALL possible hands that fit the betting line that villain is taking .. then you add up all the ones you win with and subtract the ones you lose with and you look at the pot odds and call if you have the right price and fold when you dont.

    There is also almost always some % of random spazzing being done at the table as well. although this is probably small it is NOT zero.. unless you know this player from years of playing with them.

    So what other hands would this villain play this way??

    AQ AJ AT A8 A4 for top pair or aces up.. depending on how loose you can also include K8 and K4.. AK is actually the LEAST likely since you have both cards in your hand.. How loose he would open with say any ace is why you pay attention so you can do a more accurate range analysis..

    Also in his range are flush draws.. This is why you pay attention to know if he is playing his draws fast or only playing combo draws fast.. 3 hrs is enough time to watch this.

    paying attention is just so important that it can completely change villains range based on what you have seen him play before.. players past behavior is very indicative of future behavior.. ie you seen him play sets fast on wet board and they are very likely to do that again..

    So on the flop villain donks into you.... Is there any information you can glean by this and his bet size? the vast majority of rec players lead into a pfr on a ace high board with an ace.. especially if the board is wet.. why? because they dont want to get drawn out on. Most rec players will go for check raise with two pair on a board especially if it has an ace on it because they want to protect against the flush draw that you MUST have..

    So when villain donks into me I almost always put him on an ace.. and his sizing is indicative of a big ace.. AK-AJ..

    Some rec players lead into pfr with a flush draw ..but they tend to bet smaller.. hoping that hero wont raise.. because his bet size is bigger.. 50 into 70.. I doubt he has a flush draw.. its not he cant just they bet alot smaller.. trying to draw cheaply..

    when he ships turn I just almost always thinks he has an ace and is protecting against the flush draw.. considering he has an ace you have a hammer lock on this hand.. HE can ONLY be chopping with his range.. NOT you..

    snap call..

    its great to see you are trying to improve your game.. I applaud you.. but be careful of "cheating" on hand reading and then using it as an excuse to fold because you dont want to commit your stack. If you feel that is happening then you need to find another game.. or pick up when you get outside your comfort zone..

    ww

  • luckyspewy Posts: 299Member
    Wait.... how do we feel about fist pumping while calling? Should we rip our shirts off?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    luckyspewy said:
    Wait.... how do we feel about fist pumping while calling? Should we rip our shirts off?
    Lol. No. Dont want to piss off the rec players
  • CalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    I may be going against the consensus, but I like your fold and the reasoning behind it.

    It seems to me that villain shouldn't think there is much fold equity based on your raise pf and your raise again on the flop. Then when nothing changes he over-bet shoves? There's nothing that you beat really. You can fabricate the odd suited connector that maybe makes it a call, but you have to be good like 37% to make this a good call and I just don't see it. I agree with Dannydeuces that he's likely looking for a safe card on the turn to shove with a value hand that we cannot beat.

    Without more info on the villain which would make me believe he would play a suited connector like this (with this action pre-flop, out of position, and also with the flop and turn action) I would give him credit and make the fold.

    If you're wrong, it's probably better to make a smaller mistake folding than make a huge mistake calling.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    CalgaryPokerGuy said:


    If you're wrong, it's probably better to make a smaller mistake folding than make a huge mistake calling.
    not to be nit picky but please explain "small" given villains line Hero is way ahead of villains range and you are losing the opportunity to double up.. How can winning an almost 400bb pot ever be construed as a "small" mistake.. Its a HUGE mistake...

    What OP has still not provided us are more details on his read. IE has he seen villain lead big hands .. villain doesnt play draws fast.. these observations are quite important..

    IF op doesnt know about these because he hasnt been paying good enough attention then he just has to call here.. in a vacuum he is too far ahead of villains range to fold top two pair..

    So think about it.. would villain just flat call with a set on that board on the flop? In a vacuum.. no.. So that means villain doesnt have a set..

    Do most abc villains ship INTO the pfr and flop raiser with a set on the turn when the obv draw misses.. In a vacuum..NO.. so that means villain doesnt have a set on the turn either..

    So AK is the virtual nuts given the information that we have been given.. Folding is a HUGE mistake.. not a small one..

    ww
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    in a vacuum, it's a horrible fold
    YOU 3-bet pre-flop with what you thought was the best hand
    YOU flopped one of the BEST flops for your hand
    and you think you're beat?

    What kind of flop must you get for you to stack off? Trips? A boat?

    Since the A & K are both clubs, if he's on a club draw - you're best.
    And if he's not, he has no redraw.
    Even IF he has 8s, you have outs.

    I admit I play quite nitty - but for me, folding a flopped top 2-pair is way too MUBS.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Do we really think the villain is bluffing off all his chips here with a draw, after the hero's aggression? And doing it with a SC like JT or QTcc?

    The villain has a value hand, it is just a matter of deciphering which one it is. If the hero thinks he is behind then his fold is okay given that he was in the game and we are reading this on the forum.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    Thehammah said:
    luckyspewy said:
    Wait.... how do we feel about fist pumping while calling? Should we rip our shirts off?
    Lol. No. Dont want to piss off the rec players
    she lies. hammah woulda pulled a brandi chastain lol


  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    cannot fold here except against the nittiest of nits, and maybe not even then. you block AA/KK and both hands might very well 4 bet. if he's got 88 oh well....
  • chengzy Posts: 4Member
    Thank you so much, Wendy. What you said is exactly correct. I did not want to commit my stack here. I was inexperienced and never made such big call before, so I really got scared when this Villain shove $500. I never saw him played draw so aggressive within the last 3 hours, and never saw him shove without nuts, so my mind got frozen and only hands I could put him on was AK and 88 at that time, which was totally wrong. As others said, the 88 set does not make sense from his line, so even it is a chop, I should make the call.

    For the result, I folded AK and showed. The villain said bad fold and showed me A8s. I was so tilted, even 2 days after this hand, I still could not get over from this hand. I think I do need to improve my game first before go to Casino again.
    Thehammah said:
    its great to see you are trying to improve your game.. I applaud you.. but be careful of "cheating" on hand reading and then using it as an excuse to fold because you dont want to commit your stack. If you feel that is happening then you need to find another game.. or pick up when you get outside your comfort zone..

    ww

  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    chengzy said:
    and showed

    no!!! you don't wanna put a bull's eye on yourself as a guy who can make huge laydowns.... "never show" is a good rule to live by. but never gigantic laydowns like that.
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