I am playing 2/5 at Palm Beach Kennel Club, was at a full table until several players picked up. We are sitting 4 or 5 handed waiting for the game to be filled.
Villain is new to the table in the last 5 minutes. he's a 55yo white guy to my immediate right, we chatted a little bit about how bad the room is so he seems like he's played a bit. Not saying he's a shark or anything but rather a recreational player who has experience in a bunch of different poker rooms.
4 or 5 handed, I see a player behind me prematurely folding.
I open to 15 with A6cc from utg, folds to BB who calls.
($30) Flop: AQ6r.
bb checks, i bet 25, bb calls in rhythm.
($80) Flop: AQ6r 9. this 9 puts a flush draw out there.
bb checks, i bet 55, bb c/r to 160, hero???
this looks super strong, but then again I have a very strong hand as well all things considered. Am i committed here? He has another 160ish left.
without reads idk if he is overplaying a hand like AK or AJ, or if he picked up two pair with Q9, 96s, or A9. the only hands for value that he has on the flop that c/c flop and c/r turn for value are AA, QQ, 66, and AQ. AA and QQ seem unlikely given no re-raise preflop, and i have blockers to 66 and AQ. I dont think he's 3betting me with AQ this early with no reads given we were having friendly table talk. in fact, i dont think he's ever bluffing in this spot. The A is not of the flush draw suit so he could have picked up a FD to go along with his AXs but i dont see him taking this line with those hands all that often.
if we are commited here, i think shoving is best so we can get value now from Q9 type hands before a counterfeit card comes on the turn, and i dont see him c/r/folding a big A.