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Top&Bottom vs Turn C/R

theface44 Posts: 3Subscriber
edited December 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I am playing 2/5 at Palm Beach Kennel Club, was at a full table until several players picked up. We are sitting 4 or 5 handed waiting for the game to be filled.

Villain is new to the table in the last 5 minutes. he's a 55yo white guy to my immediate right, we chatted a little bit about how bad the room is so he seems like he's played a bit. Not saying he's a shark or anything but rather a recreational player who has experience in a bunch of different poker rooms.

350 effective.

4 or 5 handed, I see a player behind me prematurely folding.

I open to 15 with A6cc from utg, folds to BB who calls.

($30) Flop: AQ6r.

bb checks, i bet 25, bb calls in rhythm.

($80) Flop: AQ6r 9. this 9 puts a flush draw out there.

bb checks, i bet 55, bb c/r to 160, hero???

this looks super strong, but then again I have a very strong hand as well all things considered. Am i committed here? He has another 160ish left.

without reads idk if he is overplaying a hand like AK or AJ, or if he picked up two pair with Q9, 96s, or A9. the only hands for value that he has on the flop that c/c flop and c/r turn for value are AA, QQ, 66, and AQ. AA and QQ seem unlikely given no re-raise preflop, and i have blockers to 66 and AQ. I dont think he's 3betting me with AQ this early with no reads given we were having friendly table talk. in fact, i dont think he's ever bluffing in this spot. The A is not of the flush draw suit so he could have picked up a FD to go along with his AXs but i dont see him taking this line with those hands all that often.

if we are commited here, i think shoving is best so we can get value now from Q9 type hands before a counterfeit card comes on the turn, and i dont see him c/r/folding a big A.

Comments

  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I think you just have to get it in. If he is a reg it might be the time time to find out what he has as you may be playing him again. He could have AQ or a set but it seems like he's playing short stack poker and you just have to get it in with those guys a lot of the time. AK and AJ are not out of the question as he would see those as strong. I saw a guy do this with J 10 suited on a very similar board.
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