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Can I fold third-nut full house on river?

ChristopherWong Posts: 9Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm playing 5-5 NL ($300-500 buyin) at local casino, and I open raise to 20 with 7d7h from UTG+1. I get four callers, so five of us see the flop. I have about $700 in chips.

Flop: 7s 3d 3c
(Pot: ~100)

I lead for $55, hoping to get called by small/medium pairs, and get called by one guy in MP. This guy is an older gentleman (perhaps 60-65 years old) who plays super tight. In the hour that we've played together so far, he has twice shown down AA and KK, betting huge amounts pre-flop and on the flop, supposedly to protect his hand from getting cracked. His stack of about $800 covers me.

Turn: Kh
(Pot: ~210)

The board is completely dry now, with no flush possibilities, and no straight draws in my opponent's range. I now bet $125, hoping to get small/medium pairs and AK or KQ to come along. (If he has a A3 suited, I expect him to raise.) After thinking for a few seconds, the old guy calls again.

River: 6h
(Pot: ~460)

I'm now feeling really good about my hand, knowing that no medium pair could have possibly caught up to my boat. So I now bet $200, hoping to get called by either top pair or trip 3s. The old guy tanks for about 30 seconds, then shoves all-in.

Since I can't put him on KK, with which he surely would have re-raised me on the flop, the only hand that beats me is quad 3s, which I had never considered since it's such a remote possibility. I also dismiss A3, since I think he just calls. The only hands that he shoves with that I can beat are 66 and K3 suited.

So, there's essentially one hand that beats me, and two hands that don't. I need to put in $300 to win $1160, basically getting 4-1 on my call. Everything seems to point to a call, but can I really be good even 1 out of 5 times against such an old nit?

Of course, I call, and he tables 33 for flopped quads against my flopped boat. Perhaps it's just a cooler, but I wonder if I should/could have found a fold here.

Advice, please!

Comments

  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    I don't think a nit calls PF with K3s nor gets to the river with 66. He folds 66 out on the turn when the king comes.
    I would estimate his range to be A3s (2 combos), 33 (1 combo) and KK (3 combos) max. The fact that he didn't raise with KK or just called with A3, you might want to reduce those numbers. It's a tough bit of math to do at the table, but depending on how you reduce the combos, it doesn't look like you're getting the right price.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Bart did a combonations analysis a few weeks ago on Dueces Cracked and in this type of situation where the villain CANT have a bluff and ONLY has value hands you basically have to give it to him.. One thing I might suggest. Your flop bet was rather big for flopping a full house. I really try to embrace not what I have or a standard bet but what worse hand can I get called with.

    With you raising pre and showing so much strength on the flop I don't think you are getting called by say 66. And since most players would reraise with KK you have to throw that out too.. that leaves A3 or K3 but since he is a nit he wouldnt call with K3 and wouldnt shove with A3.

    If you had bet say 1/3 pot or say 35 or 40 the pot would have been much smaller and then his river shove wouldnt have been giving you such good odds. With such a hammer lock on the hand I want to get called by say 22, 44, 55, 66, 88-10s, 45,76,75- any gutshot.. I am not too worried about the two outer because I know when they give me a lot of heat I am probably no good.

    h
  • ^ His flop bet is fine. No pair is ever folding. That is what we are trying to get called by. I'd have bet more on the river, if anything. This is a gross spot and does look like quads. Hard to fold, though.
  • MatthewCahow Posts: 5Member
    Agree w/ fishcake about the flop bet and actually think you played the hand fine. It also seems like a really gross spot to fold OTR imo. It really feels like a cooler to me. If the villian had gotten aggressive OTF and started a raising war, are you really going to fold to his flop aggression putting his entire range on flopped quads? OTR what has really changed? You don't think he has KK because of the preflop action so, the only thing that beats you is still 33. Also, even against an old nit, I think you have to factor in some small amount of spazziness or strangely played AA that he's trying to "trap" you with. That being said, I'm more worried about a slowplayed KK that filled up OTT, but I'm probably not folding getting 4 to 1.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    I dont think you did anything wrong and its a cooler. Thing is at these stakes people overvalue their hands sometimes. He could think hes 3 is the nuts however that depnds on whether or not he calls your raise pf with A3 suited. I lot of players will. He could have a high pocket pr like JJ or QQ too and think he is good. It also depends on whther or not he thinks your a nit or aggressive. If he thinks your a young aggro kid maybe he thinks his QQ is good. I think you're gettingt oo good of a price to fold the river.
  • JamesSuh Posts: 320Subscriber
    C'mon why no 7 on the river one time for the BBJ!?
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