I'm playing 5-5 NL ($300-500 buyin) at local casino, and I open raise to 20 with 7d7h from UTG+1. I get four callers, so five of us see the flop. I have about $700 in chips.
Flop: 7s 3d 3c
I lead for $55, hoping to get called by small/medium pairs, and get called by one guy in MP. This guy is an older gentleman (perhaps 60-65 years old) who plays super tight. In the hour that we've played together so far, he has twice shown down AA and KK, betting huge amounts pre-flop and on the flop, supposedly to protect his hand from getting cracked. His stack of about $800 covers me.
The board is completely dry now, with no flush possibilities, and no straight draws in my opponent's range. I now bet $125, hoping to get small/medium pairs and AK or KQ to come along. (If he has a A3 suited, I expect him to raise.) After thinking for a few seconds, the old guy calls again.
I'm now feeling really good about my hand, knowing that no medium pair could have possibly caught up to my boat. So I now bet $200, hoping to get called by either top pair or trip 3s. The old guy tanks for about 30 seconds, then shoves all-in.
Since I can't put him on KK, with which he surely would have re-raised me on the flop, the only hand that beats me is quad 3s, which I had never considered since it's such a remote possibility. I also dismiss A3, since I think he just calls. The only hands that he shoves with that I can beat are 66 and K3 suited.
So, there's essentially one hand that beats me, and two hands that don't. I need to put in $300 to win $1160, basically getting 4-1 on my call. Everything seems to point to a call, but can I really be good even 1 out of 5 times against such an old nit?
Of course, I call, and he tables 33 for flopped quads against my flopped boat. Perhaps it's just a cooler, but I wonder if I should/could have found a fold here.