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Overpair when top card pairs

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 $300 max NL

Bart talked about this on the SOP I believe a little while back. I'm trying to figure out if this is the same type of spot, and if so how I should play this.

Hero ($400) Image isn't terrible, but isn't great. I had to raise/fold a few times pre, and each time guys showed pocket aces. Since then I've won a few hands and showed down strong PF hands.

Villain ($150) 20's white guy. Limp/reraised utg all in for like $80 about 30 mins ago. Won a few hands so now he's up to $150. Otherwise played fairly passive and straightforward.

Hero (UTG) As Ac raises to $11
MP calls
MP2 calls
Villain (CO) calls
BB calls

(52)
Flop: Jh 9s 3s
Hero bets 35
MP/MP2 fold
Villain calls 35
BB folds

(125)
Turn: Jh 9s 3s Jh
Hero?

Villain didn't look too pained, but didn't look like he was super confident. Took about 15-20 seconds of thinking at least.

Jx of spades is possible here. I also block Axss so that's another draw he can't have.

The capped buyin makes this difficult as well. He has about a PSB left, but if I were to shove here I don't think he's calling like pocket 8's.

Can I possibly bet like $50 and fold a raise?

If it checks through, if spades brick out I can be pretty sure he doesn't have trip jacks and I can make a solid value bet for maybe $60-70 and he might think I bricked out on spades and are taking a shot.

Any thoughts, also thoughts on how to play this in a capped buyin game.

Comments

  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    This spot sucks, since villain is still more likely to have a flush draw or 9x / TT than Jx. So you don't want to give a free card, but the stack sizes are such that it's hard to bet fold.
    If villain is really passive, I would probably bet something like 40 and fold to a shove. It sucks, but since the flop was five ways, the likelihood he has a jack goes way up. It if was 2- or 3-handed on the flop, I would just shove the turn.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    People peel so wide on the flop, especially in low limit games, that you have to bet the turn. If your "passive" opponent crai on the turn, it seems like an easy fold. His range probably includes basically any pair / any piece on the flop: 55/44/A3/other small pair, 9x, flush draws, straight draws including gutters like KsTx and oesd QT/T8, high cards like AQ (? Sometimes ?). You have to bet again to get value from draws. The J pairing the board obv makes it less likely he holds a jack.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    I think on boards like this its best to just pot the flop. A smaller bet size is not going to get a wider range to call. Just bomb away with value hands. They may even call MORE often the bigger you bet since they will think you are bluffing.

    As played i think Just shoving turn is fine. He has about 100 left with the pot at 125. If you bet like 50 can you really see yourself folding to a min raise shove? I feel like if he has a FD he might just say fuck it and put it in if you bet smaller.
  • Only problem with shoving is I feel like rec players don't know the odds to draw to a flush, and when the board is paired they just figure they shouldn't call much. Not that they necessarily think I have a jack but just fish logic.

    If I were to not shove, the river is even weirder. Can I check/fold for like 60?
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I think that if you bet turn 40-50 and he just flat calls, he'll tend not to have a J, because he would want to "protect" against the flush draws that fish are so damn afraid of if he had a J.

    So if you bet the turn and he calls, then you check the river, might as well call off the last 60 if the draw doesn't come in. But if he shoves over your turn bet, you can fold. You'll lose to full houses, but it's probably not a J if he takes the c/c turn and shove river line
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