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Do I have Fold Equity? Does Villain have odds to call?

ChristopherWong Posts: 9Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$300-500 NL (5-5 blinds) at Hollywood Park Casino in LA. I sit down at 10am at a full table that has some big stacks and has been going all night...

In my very first hand:

HJ (Hero): $500
CO: $650
Button: $800
SB (Villain): $1700

Hero raises to $20 with QsJs. CO and Button call. SB thinks for about 30 seconds, then squeezes to $100. SB is a young, very aggro Asian kid who I've played with many times; he likes bluff a lot, and will double and triple barrel if he senses weakness. Though it's my very first hand, I'm pretty sure he reads me as relatively tight. I consider 4-betting to $250, but feel like I have better chance to either hit something good on flop or bluff shove over his inevitable c-bet.

Hero calls. CO and Button fold.

Pot: ~$240
Flop: Kh 7d 10c

Villain instantly fires out $135. I think for five seconds, then shove all-in for $400. Villain thinks for two minutes, then finally calls.

Turn: 8h
River: 6s

Complete miss for me. Villain tables Qh 10h and scoops $1040 pot.

I thought I was very credibly representing AK (and perhaps KQs) with my preflop call of his 3bet. So if he is pretty sure that I have a K, does it make sense for him to call with only five outs and a backdoor flush and straight draws. Against someone like me who doesn't have a bluffy reputation, I'm not sure how he can call getting only 3-1 on his money (i.e. $265 to win only $775).

So, my two questions:
1) Did I have Fold Equity against a player like this?
2) Can he justify his call?

Comments

  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I have some questions in return. Wink

    1) If you had AK or KQ, would you really shove the flop?
    (Wouldn't you rather flatcall to let him bluff? Why generate fold equity if you think you have the best hand?)

    If the answer to 1) is PROBABLY NOT:
    2) Does villain think about what you represent? Is it possible he knows that you never have a strong made hand but want him to fold?
    (Villain also blocks Tx combos and some KQ combos. And you would never shove QQ or JJ on this flop I guess. So what's left?)
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    wouldnt you be shoving AK PF?

    to be honest your range looks almost exactly what it is. Any hand that you have should be just calling and letting him bluff off. When there is an obvious draw on the board people dont like folding pairs.

    I think a better play is to just fire it in preflop or fold. Unless you are planning to play back on any board. You just arent gonna hit enough equity enough of the time to flat his 3b pf.
  • ChristopherWong Posts: 9Subscriber
    good question... would i shove with AK or KQ post flop? i actually thought about whether my shove would make villain think that i had more bluffs in my range. however, because effective stacks are so short, i think it makes sense that i would indeed shove with a K.

    i should also add that villain was audibly counting his outs, pretty much resigned to the fact that i had what i was representing. in a live environment, and especially at this casino, when people raise from early position and call a 3bet, they usually have AK. (if i had QQ, i would probably have 4bet shoved preflop since i know he is squeeze happy.)

    all this to say: villain made the call knowing he only had five outs at best.
  • ChristopherWong Posts: 9Subscriber
    in response to Mike:

    i guess i don't belong to the school of thought that says i should be 4-bet shoving with AK pre flop with 100BB. sometimes, i would. but i also think it's best to be a little cautious too in that spot.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    If you wanted to bluff him, I prefer a 4-bet pre-flop with these stack sizes. And you would make it an amount that he doesn't fold equity if he 5-bet shoves over your 4-bet. Particularly if he's squeezing light way more frequently than the times he has a value hand. The problem with flatting an aggressive opponent is, it's still not easy to play post-flop when you miss. And he also seems like the aggro type who doesn't like to fold, which makes it even harder to bluff shove the flop. But if he doesn't like to fold, he's still not stacking off 100BB pre-flop with QT, so 4-bet bluffing > trying to outplay post-flop

    If you're going to flat with a hand like QJ, I think that on a rainbow flop, you're better off floating and deciding whether you want to bluff at later, rather than shoving the flop. I think that with the hand he had, you're more likely to get him to fold the turn or river.
  • edog Posts: 43Member
    Bummer results Chris. I wonder what conditions would have to exist to make this hand easier to play?

    It seems to me that we need to be deeper to flat on the flop if the villain is going to c-bet all flops. Our flop SPR is less than 2 and any villain continuation bet commits us if we continue in the hand. unfortunately, the low flop SPR also limits our implied value on draws. So after we flat the preflop 3 bet we can- plan A hit the flop, plan B bluff or semi-bluff for our stack, or plan C bluff catch with Queen high.

    I would just let the hand go on the flop. I don't want to play for my stack against the aggro Asian kid on my first hand at the table.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    villain's call on the flop looks terrible, but if he has 5 outs with two cards to come, he's going to be around 22% equity. He only needs you to have a few bluffs in your range in order to make the call +EV.

    I don't like the shove on the flop, because you don't represent much. But I think the more serious mistake is calling preflop. Stack sizes are just not deep enough do do anything but fold. Since villain is agressive, you have to expect him firing postflop into you. And QJs is a hand that flops some equity often, but a lot of equity very rarely. It's a drawing hand, but you don't have the necessary stack sizes to realize your equity by seeing more than 3 cards.

    I think in order to consider flatcalling you need to be around 1500$ deep at least (his 3bet is to 100, so the flop will be > 200$ already).
    4betting as a bluff could be an option with stack sizes of at least 900-1000. Then, you have enough to 4bet to 230-240 and fold to a shove. With 500, you can't fold anymore once you 4bet, so you basically have to get it in with a hand that doesn't play well against his stacking off range.

    Generally, I would rather 4bet-bluff with Ax or Kx type hands, (which are worse than QJs, but have blockers) and not waste the potential of a QJs hand. But as I said, this really depends on stack sizes.

    If you want to play back against an aggro squeezer, then you could
    - 4bet to get it in (maybe shove directly over his 3bet) with medium pocket pairs, if you are around 100BB
    - 4bet bluff as mentioned, if stack sizes are right
    - flatcall in position with premium hands and let him barrel off
    (if you flat him with AA or KK and and he fires multiple streets into you, he'll remember it for a while)
  • JerseyJay Posts: 181Subscriber
    I dont think that this shove is too bad and its a bad call by villain, especially if he is counting outs at the table. I think the villain just felt like gambling. As another poster said, he has equity and some of your range is bluffs, although probably not too much. That said, you clearly did not have the odds to call preflop. If you subscribe to the 15-25-35 rule for s,all pairs, suited connecters, and suited one gappers as i do, you would need stacks of 2000 to call this 80 raise preflop. You did have position, but its not enough imo to make this call pre. So although the villain was just gambling and called light, in the words of every 8 year old, "you started it".
  • Fold to the 3bet pre. Don't 4bet. Not going to even address the rest of the hand. Calling is really bad.
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