Hand I played on 12/13/14
I'm effective, @ ~$600. Target just sat down few mins ago, loaded for $1000 and has seen maybe 10 hands and played 1 + this current one.
I'm UTG with black Kings and open to $20.
Folds around to HJ (Target in this hand) who flats; remaining players fold.
Pot = $48.
Range I'm giving Target:
AA-55, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs
AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo, QJo
Flop: 3♦ 9♦ 8♥
My plan considering the variables:
- I don't want to be leading out here, esp with no diamond in my hand, and create a big pot when I'm out of position with a player who has me covered and I don't have any reads on, for example, I don't want to bet pot-ish and get raised, flat the raise, then get bet into on a turn I don't improve on when I check, and have to fold the best hand.
- If he's gonna run a bluff on me he's more likely to do so when I show weakness, and I'll be able to bluff-catch more profitably with a non-large/huge pot.
- I only, theoretically, am protecting against an Ace.
- I wanna get to showdown with this hand with a decent size pot, but not too large.
- I'll be able to get value from worse pairs for 2 streets in which T's, J's, & Q's are in his PF calling range from HJ, as well as some 9's or 8's that want to look me up on the River with a medium size pot; I don't believe I'll get all 3 streets of value, and if I check the River I'd rather not open myself up to a sophisticated Bluff line either, by this player double floating me or turning his Med. Str. hand into a bluff.
I check with the plan to check/call the flop all the way up to Pot. With the follow-up plan to check/call almost all turns whilst evaluating a Turned Ace or board paired 9 or 8. I plan to even check-call all diamonds as it can be a great card to bluff at.
Target bets $40. I complete my plan and check/call.
Pot = $128. My money left behind = ~$525.
Target bets $75.
Pot = $278. My money left behind = ~$450.
I check again, hoping to get to a free showdown.
Target bets $300.
I put myself in this stupid spot by check-calling Flop & Turn and now I know his range is polarized. I don't believe he'd turn Med. Str. hands into bluffs in THIS SPECIFIC SPOT.
Value hands I'm assigning Target are flushes and houses.
Bluff hands I'm assigning Target are AK's, AQ's, AJ's (including A♦ K♦ and Q♦ busted flushes) and 2pair 98 that is over-repping their hand, #1 because I under-repped mine, and #2 because he just might be recreational enough to not realize that an overpair just counterfeited him.
When I set out my plan from the flop I know I wanted to bluff-catch with a non-huge pot, and though this River bet makes the pot so, I believe it's extremely polarizing.
I've gone over this hand a few times and have remembered Bart mentioning tendencies on the River at this level.
Let me know you're thoughts, both on 1) Which PF-to-River line you would rather have taken and 2) What your River action is considering how the hand played out with player (no)-dynamic involved.