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Standard winrate

StACkOffStACkOff Posts: 71Member
edited December 2014 in Poker Goals and Challenges
Hi guys,

I talk to many players and it's really hard to get an accurate, objective answer.
I know there is a lot of thread in other forum, but again answers are not very objective.
I would like to have clear and objective answer on these.

1. How many hours in live poker is a good sample to evaluate your winrate?
2. What is a good standard stats for the standard deviation ($/hour)?
3. What is a good winrate ($/hour) in a:
- 1$/2$ NLHE game?
- 2$/5$ NLHE game?
- 5$/10$ NLHE game?

thanks, gl on table
«1

Comments

  • GroundhogDayGroundhogDay Posts: 287Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    fwiw... I play part-time and try to look at a good sample size as 2000 hours or 1 year of playing full-time. 2000 hours a year = 40 hours a week for 50 weeks and the other two weeks (or 10 "business days" working 8 hour days) you are away from poker on vacation or holiday's. That is helpful to compare what you can make in poker versus what you can make in a normal 40 hour a week job.....

    Then try and think what is the hourly rate you would want to make in order to offset all the hard-ships associated with playing poker full-time as a pro (i.e. no medical insurance, degens as friends, boring shit day in and day out, etc...) This is an individual decision and would be something where you take in all factors and rate them to your opportunities and needs/wants. However, I think a good starting point is about $50 an hour... especially considering no medical insurance....

    Now that we know we want to win $50 an hour over 2000 hours to equal $100,000 a year... we can start picking the game that we feel can help us achieve the hourly goal and base it on big blinds per hour... Obviously 5/10 is only 5 bb's an hour, so if you think you can do that, then I would recommend that level... however it really is dependent on your needs/wants....
  • acesfullX Posts: 1Member
    hey StACkOff here is what has worked for me...
    when playing live keep track of your results on 2hr intervals (so when you start write down how much you start with, if you add money to table write that down, then at the end of each two hour period write down how much you have on the table)

    I picked two hours because i found that was a good amount of time before needing a break to walk around etc, also it allows you to break down your results into smaller chunks, and also if gives you a chance to see what your optimum length at the table is (ie are your results after 6hours total really starting to degrade)

    Once you have the info above, put it into an excel sheet and graph.
    I created two graphs, one shows +/- for each two hour interval
    the other shows a cumulative to date (ie. am i up $5000 total, etc.)

    For me, i found that i could really see a trend after about 200hours (playing 1/2 and 1/3 live). Also you can easily start to see when you have improved.
    For example when i was playing 1/3last summer although my avg hourly was $20/hr there was a fair amount of volatility (due to me having leaks, making some bad decisions etc.), but then i worked really hard for a few months and so when i played in the fall, not only did my hourly improve (to $40/hr on 1/2 and1/3) but my volatility was much smaller (ie.
    my graph was much smoother).

    Essentially your win rate and volatility is related to your skill advantage over your opponents (if you are much better than they are then you will have a higher win rate and a low volatility) whereas if you are only marginally better than your opponents your win rate will be low and you will have high volatility of results. So to answer your questions below

    1. How many hours in live poker is a good sample to evaluate your winrate? this will depend on your ability vs. your opponents, but if you graph your results and you have a fairly smooth trend line it should give you a pretty good idea (i found 200hrs gave me decent information). Note though that players are getting better over time, so just because your are doing well now doesnt mean you will always do well.
    2. What is a good standard stats for the standard deviation ($/hour)? Standard deviation will also depend on your ability vs that of your opponents, if my win rate at 1/3 is $35/hr then my standard deviation for a 2hr period is probably $300. Note though that i still have a ton of things that i need to work on, so as i get better, this variance will decrease
    3. What is a good winrate ($/hour) in a:
    - 1$/2$ NLHE game? Ive only played at one place in vegas at 1/2 (i generally play 1/3), but i actually found my win rate to be better at 1/2 than at 1/3 because the 1/2 players made many more serious errors that provided a lot of value - i think certainly $30+/hr is doeable at 1/2 and 1/3, and for the really skilled i think they could do a lot better on an average table
    - 2$/5$ NLHE game?
    - 5$/10$ NLHE game?

    hope this helps
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    This is the first year I have full stats on each session for the entire year.. I keep track of hours and buy ins and cashouts for each session and game type. I have loged a bit over 1000 hours playing part time. which is pretty significant considering I have a full time job.

    I can clearly see that I am playing better now then at the beginning of the year.. what I dont think about really is whether my win rate is as high as it should be. I focus on getting better as a player and assume that the money will come along for the ride..

    I would suggest that everyone else do the same. I personally believe trying to hit a certain win rate is the wrong way to think about it. a waste of time since games could be different at your location. the player pool can be different etc.. too many variables.

    and then what you hit $50 and think you dont need to learn any more?? In January I ran unreal good.. the wendy now looks back at how much MORE I could have won given my skills now.. If I didnt always work on my game I would think I am just doing fine.. when in fact there is always some money on the table..

    ww
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    This is the first year I have full stats on each session for the entire year.. I keep track of hours and buy ins and cashouts for each session and game type. I have loged a bit over 1000 hours playing part time. which is pretty significant considering I have a full time job.

    I can clearly see that I am playing better now then at the beginning of the year.. what I dont think about really is whether my win rate is as high as it should be. I focus on getting better as a player and assume that the money will come along for the ride..

    I would suggest that everyone else do the same. I personally believe trying to hit a certain win rate is the wrong way to think about it. a waste of time since games could be different at your location. the player pool can be different etc.. too many variables.

    and then what you hit $50 and think you dont need to learn any more?? In January I ran unreal good.. the wendy now looks back at how much MORE I could have won given my skills now.. If I didnt always work on my game I would think I am just doing fine.. when in fact there is always some money on the table..

    ww
    i deal with this. Ive been working on some things basically trying to be better at being a LAG. It has definitely hurt my profits cause Ive been value owning myself also spewing off trying to bluff in the wrong spots. Now I play like this at 1/2 and 1/3 to limit my losses so to say but I know ultimately this will help me.
  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 789Subscriber
    Lets try an experiment.

    One of the things that I think causes the vagueness around win rates is peoples understandable reluctance to post their real results due to it being real money. If I said I played 500 hours this year at 2-5 at $40/hour, then you know I made $20,000 playing cards this year. And understandably that's something most of us don't want to shout off the rooftops.

    If magically every CLP subscriber were to enter all their results data into a magical anonymous database we'd pretty much have the answers a lot of us keep looking for.

    So here's the experiment:

    Everyone post the results from their LAST session. We get a couple hundred posts, we can put together a pretty reasonable profile of what CLP subscriber looks like. So ideally we get the volume of data necessary to get some oomph behind this age old question, without anyone having to get into their own personal gory details.

    I'll start:

    Last session: 2-5; 3.25 hours; +1152 (~71 BBs/hour)

    The side benefit of this is we could set the record for longest CLP thread :)

    Have at it team CLP! Let's do this! I fully expect Wendy to be the 2nd post.

    Roger
  • workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    I suspect if people do post their results you'll get a self selection bias of people postings wins and not losses. My last session was 7.5 hrs + $535. 2014 i played so far 866hrs of 3/5 and won $38.9K for $44.9/hr.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Session last night was 10hour between 1-2 and 1-3 I lost 80 dollars

  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 789Subscriber
    workinghard said:
    I suspect if people do post their results you'll get a self selection bias of people postings wins and not losses. My last session was 7.5 hrs + $535. 2014 i played so far 866hrs of 3/5 and won $38.9K for $44.9/hr.
    Everyone just use last session regardless of results. That should keep it random.

    Great year by the way neverlearn!

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Well i wasnt the second poster. Last night I played 5/5. 6 hrs and lost $459.
  • GroundhogDayGroundhogDay Posts: 287Subscriber
    edited December 2014
    If helpful, I have posted results before from my poker income app in this old thread

    http://www.crushlivepoker.com/forums/discussion/1488/whats-the-best-way-to-learn-from-this-site-if-you-are-a-new-subscriber#Item_1

    That was before poker income updated their software and I lost this data... I tried out poker manager, but didn't like them as much and finally getting over the fact poker income lost all my stats... I went back to them and just export the data every so often... I have stats from 9/12 and I am not doing that great... I had a really bad November, where I wasn't rolled for some of the bigger games and losing three buy-in's crushed my roll for the 5/5 game so hard to get the money I lost in november back, but I am chipping away at it......so far I am making $27.76 over 125 hours and 5 minutes which was over 33 sessions... Mostly playing 2/5, but there is a mix of 1/2, 1/3 and 1/2 PLO in there, and one tournament.


    I think always learning and improving is something that should be obvious and putting a target hourly as a benchmark of success shouldn't deter from that goal, but rather just a hourly goal you set, that you obviously hope you go way over...

    Recently, a really good thinking poker player who has a regular day job, told me this and I thought it was genius idea...so I will share (it is kind of on this topic...)

    Decide how much you need to make in poker per hour to make your time worth it.... the time away from family/friends, amount you could make in a different job, etc..... are factors in this decision. It is a personal decision based on many life factors, like how much you make at your day job, how much you enjoy playing poker, how much dealing with poker players annoys you, etc....

    For me I think $20 an hour is a reasonable amount as I enjoy playing poker, but I am there for profit and not entertainment.... He recommended that you should pay yourself that hourly rate (i.e. put it in the "life-fund" to buy whatever you need like to pay bills or what you want.. like a new car, etc..) If you make anything over that $20 then you should reinvest it back into your poker roll to grow your stakes and make sure it can handle down-swings...

    So now that I have determined that if I am not making $20 an hour (don't forget to deduct your expenses like food, gas, etc..) I look at it like I should not be playing poker if I can't achieve this win-rate as that is what I consider the "break-even" point for me... If I can't make $20 an hour profit, then I might as well be home with the family or have a part-time job as a waitor or something.....

    To add a caveat to this he and I are both married (no not to each other.... b4 u ask) and the recommendation is that out of that $20 an hour you are paying yourself, that you in-turn give $10 to your spouse for all the crap they are dealing with when you are gone... that way they realize there is a benefit and you aren't just a crazy gambler degen...


    It has helped me so far, as I can separate my poker money and life money easier and also was an easy way to show my wife what I was making and also share in the benefits in a detailed way, and not just give her a couple 100 here or there....I prob give her less, but the fact that the process in place makes it all the easier.... hope that helps... loved the idea my friend told me and figured I would share... hope it helps!!!!
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    ^^^

    Yea my wife gets money when I win but when I'm losing money my money Grubbing wife is no where to be found :yell:
  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 789Subscriber
    Some early stats:

    So the "give me the last session" ploy didn't seem to work. However a few people have been nice enough to post some results with serious hours, to which I've added mine, and so far we have:

    1-2/1-3
    -------
    Players: 3
    Hours: 791
    Total: $19,757
    Rate: $24.98

    2-5/3-5
    -------
    Players: 4
    Hours: 1483
    Total: $59,149
    Rate: $39.88

    If anyone else cares to contribute, please chime in.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    edited January 2015
    Well since I've been tracking on my new phone, went from iPhone to android, I'll throw mine to balance things out

    49.5 hours -1470 like 90% 1/3 rest between 1/2 and 6/12 O8

    Let's bring the win rates down.
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    5/5
    6hours
    +2000


    Also, I don't think this is a good way to figure out winrates. Winrates are not only individualistic, but they change for the individual. My winrate today is not the same as January last year. Further, my winrate in NLHE is not my winrate in PLO. My winrate on Tuesday morning is not the same as my winrate on Friday night. My winrate in LA is not the same as in Vegas.
    So, it's hard enough for an individual to figure out something resembling a true winrate unless they have like 10k hours in the same game with the same skill leveled opponents and without having developed at all in that 10k hours.
    But, then there's the gaps between players. Pretty sure Bart's winrate is significantly different than the OPs. Pretty sure Abe's winrate is significantly different than mine. The idea of an average winrate that is remotely meaningful, even on a fairly specialized site like CLP is a complete misnomer.

    Beyond that, I rarely think there is a good reason to focus on winrate. I just don't see the value in determining what a "good" winrate at X stake is. If you're at that amount are you going to pat yourself on the back? If you reach that amount are you going to stop trying to improve?
    I think most often people ask these questions so that they can say, Okay, "$100/hr" at 5/10 is a good winrate. If I can do that, then I'll make 150k if I play 1500 hours. Beyond the fact that standard deviation is so wild to render this almost pointless, the dirty little secret is that if you were capable of doing that, you probably wouldn't be asking questions like this.

    So, my advice: Keep playing. Keep tracking your play. Keep working to improve your play. And, finally, more or less forget about winrate.

    P.S. If someone is trying to figure this out to evaluate whether they should leave a current job, the answer is almost surely no.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Yea my win rate would be higher but I play in the toughest 1/3 game in North America

  • iLikeCaliDonksiLikeCaliDonks Posts: 932Troll
    A lot of bad theory in this thread. First, it will take a life time to come up with a decent sample size in live poker. So that throws a loop in all hourly theory since its based on a sample size thats not big enough.

    Instead look at hourly as a guage of how hard you need to work on your game. Then create goals first, what is your purpose of playing? Are you building? Are you overrolled and trying to make money? Etc... Its a number of things. Some goals are bigger than others just depends who you are.

    A+ winrate is 10bbs/hr over 400hours.

    5bbs is decent anything under you break even or a losing player. Its about winning money though, how much you gross. You can have a 5bb/hr winrate and spend all your winnings, it means nothing then.

    Also if you are a 10bb winner at any level you might be playing too low.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    I'd say if you don't improve and your playing environment doesn't change you should get reasonable estimate of your winrate after 10 000 hours.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    @RecreationalRoger , maybe it's better idea to collect individual ranges for true winrate. That way nobody can figure that person income.
    For example I entered my hours played and observed winrate into this calculator https://www.mccallum-layton.co.uk/tools/statistic-calculators/confidence-interval-for-mean-calculator/ set Confidence Level to 95% and got range for true winrate for 2/5 is from 15.25 to 63.87
    I guess if you get few this numbers, you can combine them after to get some sort of average.
  • CalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
    The problem is that the win-rate is a dynamic number that constantly flows with different variables. For example, even if you ONLY played with the same exact 9 players everyday for 2000 hours, your expected win-rate would differ day to day depending on things like:

    - what are the stack sizes?
    - what are the relative positions of the players?
    - who is currently on tilt?
    - who's tired, who's focused?
    - who's down/up?
    - who is employing/adjusting different strategies?

    ... just to name a few (and really there's a pile more). Throw in a large fluctuating player pool with the many other random variables and it becomes a question not worth answering.

    The best thing you can do (imo) is keep very accurate stats for each game you play (profit/loss and time played), look for leaks, run equities on hands when they are done to make sure you are putting money in good (eg. all in ev), learn learn learn, etc. And really, what other people are making in different player pools (or even in your local casino) won't determine your win-rate, we also all play differently.

    As an aside, even something as simple as actively table-selecting during a session better than someone else will change your win-rate compared to theirs. Just stop worrying about it and always do your best, good luck!
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    I'd say if you don't improve and your playing environment doesn't change you should get reasonable estimate of your winrate after 10 000 hours.
    This is the reason these discussions are so silly. 10k hours in Live poker is 5 years of full time playing. Not only will you change, but your opposition will change. There's just no way in live poker to get a statistically significant data set that remains consistent for long enough to answer the winrate question.

    Ultimately, it doesn't even matter.
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