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Shallow stacks, worst turn card in deck

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$500 cap 2/5 at Borgata

$500 effective
Villain is a semi-reg and plays very well for a non-professional player, on the TAGgy side

Villain raises to $20 from button
Hero defends in BB with QcQs
When I 3-bet this guy when he opens from late-ish position he almost always folds. So I decided to just take a flop this time

Ad Qd 9c flop ($42)
Hero bets $15
Villain raises to $50
Hero raises to $175
Villain looks at me a little suspiciously and tank calls after a while

If I c/r, he'll probably snap fold a weak A. I made a stupidly small bet to induce a raise from a wide range, and sure enough, he has complied so far

And of course the turn is the Jd
$392 in pot and ~$300 left in stacks

The annoying part here is the effective stack sizes. I can't c/c to fill up. If I bet and get shoved on, pot odds mandate a snap call.

If I check, I'm technically getting the wrong odds to call to fill up if I get shoved on, but I still rarely fold flopped sets in 100BB cap games. It's highly unlikely he has a lower set or two pair because he would most likely get those hands in on the flop, so if I get shoved on, most of the time it will be by flushes.

Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    in this day and age, it's tough to make a flush.
    of course flushes are a decent part of his range, but do you know for sure that he's capable of raising on the come?
    can't see check/folding here, as he could be betting like AxKd or similar on the turn. i would just go for the bet/call line and fill up if you're behind.
    of course, you might have a huge overlay to hit the 1 out Queen for the jackpot......hahaha.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Yeah, the Jd is not a good card. However, in terms of flush completing cards, it is pretty good since it blocks several of the combo draws that he might play this way: KJ, JT, J8, J9. Do you have any sense of how often he raise-calls good made hands vs. gets them in on the flop? If he's decent he knows he's not getting really great odds on his flop call and stacks are pretty shallow which will further reduce his likelihood of calling weak flush draws with no backup.
  • Shark Posts: 108Subscriber
    I would shove any turn card after 4betting the flop. you built up such a huge pot. there is no exit for you from this hand. you are commited after 4 betting the flop which is a nice thing. and its a bad deal for him to be playing for stacks just with the FD as an underdog. if he calles your reraise on flop, he has to know you are gonna play this for the stacks ( in two steps).
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    My thinking was that:

    If he had a value hand that he was going to go with, he's more likely to shove the flop
    If he has a worse value hand, then the Jd will scare him, and I'll be less likely to get paid off by worse because I sometimes play draws with a similar line against opponents who raise fold the flop with top pair or OP's

    Therefore, his flop calling range probably consists more of pair+draw type hands or flush draw + some kind of straight draw hands than anything like AK

    If he had some kind of straight draw that the J completed with his draw, then I'm still behind, and I don't think he's folding

    So can I possibly check this turn and bet the river for value if the turn checks through? Of course, c/f to a ship is still a little insane
  • edog Posts: 43Member
    The 8d is a pretty bad turn card because it completes JT and flush draws.

    The Jd may not be that bad a card. If he called the flop 3 bet with a draw what flush draws does he have other than KTdd? Maybe K8dd or T8dd. And if he is going to call with a flush draw he probably would call with straight draws containing back door flush draws, ex-JT with a diamond.

    In any event, I think if he had a draw, he would have flatted of flop lead getting 4 to 1. Thereby, keeping the pot small so he possibly could bet/fold the turn.

    I would probably shove the turn either in the lead or with boat or quad outs.
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