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flop decision - BB with 88

reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Just sit down to a $1/$3 $300 max game at Spirit Mountain Casino in OR on a Saturday night, 6-handed. Second hand, chip runner comes to the table and plops down $75 in red chips into the (as of yet empty) pot - it's some promotion called "Stack Attack." "Lucky me!" I think. So this pot is spiked $75.

Effective stacks are $300. Villain (button) has me covered. Limp, limp, limp, villain (OTB) makes it $30, SB fold, I'm in BB and squeeze out two red 8's. Hero?

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I take it you don't know much about the button? And $30 is an unusually large raise in this game? For some players a very large raise often is for something like 77-JJ where they want to get folds PF because they are afraid of overcards on the flop. Obviously on the button his range is much wider than this.

    My default is to just call OOP and set mine -- hope that all the limpers call so that you have nice implied odds if you hit your set.

    I think raise/folding at these stack sizes is high-variance: if you raise to say $90, then you'll have about 1 SPR left, so you should really shove any flop since you don't have position. High-variance and probably good for your image, but not my style.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    ship it!
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    Villain was talking a lot, mid-40's, kind of a blow-hard, biggest stack at table with around $500-something.

    Shmed, is $30 a big raise size with $75 in dead money (remember, house added $75 to pot pf)? I'm not sure it is. However I'm not giving ANY player at this table credit for understanding proper raise sizing with a bunch of dead money in the pot, especially after watching so much LATB 5/5/5 ante game, where the opening raise size is all over the map! Definitely thought he was kind of donk-ish, but with the biggest stack at the table, he could have also had some skills too.

    Whatsyourplay, I definitely considered a ship!!! It was between calling the $30, raising a large-ish amount (to around $100), and SHIPPIN IT! I just wondered what you all thought was proper with a typical donk-ish, fishy table with all that dead money and a less-than-premium but better-than-average starting hand.

    Thanks for all replies!
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Thanks for the reminder. I have to admit I am one of those people that don't have a good concept of what to raise here, as I really haven't been in this situation with dead money / ante situation (except something like 5 years ago at Caeser's Vegas there was a promotion where they put a more extreme $500 in the middle in a $1/2 game I think -- I made the mistake there of overplaying and stacking off with a top-pair hand I never would have otherwise because of all the dead money -- and then my buddy did the same thing -- maybe that's caused a subconscious bias against changing the way you play too much because of dead-money and promotions). I guess you can think of this like a $10 ante for the hand if you want to model it off of what you see at LATB.

    As for what to do here, I actually think it has to do with 1) your read of the button's range and limper tendencies, and 2) your risk/variance tolerance. Definitely shipping it / reraising normal are all viable too.

    I wonder though if the dead $75 is enough to get out of your normal gameplan -- perhaps the answer is yes for you, and if so, you should definitely assume others will as well. This argues for shipping it, as you probably have the most FE equity here to take it down. No one is folding top pair on the flop and odds are reasonable that it may not be you once 3 cards come.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    This spot is similar to a tourney in the later stage with very short stacks and antes. Just interpret the dead money as huge antes, and your stack is only ten times the open raise sizes. Therefore, I am shipping here a 100% to generate as much fold equity as possible. I think reraising smaller is a mistake with 88 because you might give villain the impression that he has fold equity if he comes over the top again. Just imagine you raise to 100 and he ships with AJ, AQ type hands which he would have folded to a ship!
    I would only reraise smaller with a really premium hand if I WANT action.

    Also, remember that we would only need 44% equity against button's stackoff range even if we knew he was going to call. With decent fold equity, we need much less.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    This spot is similar to a tourney in the later stage with very short stacks and antes. Just interpret the dead money as huge antes, and your stack is only ten times the open raise sizes. Therefore, I am shipping here a 100% to generate as much fold equity as possible. I think reraising smaller is a mistake with 88 because you might give villain the impression that he has fold equity if he comes over the top again. Just imagine you raise to 100 and he ships with AJ, AQ type hands which he would have folded to a ship!
    I would only reraise smaller with a really premium hand if I WANT action.

    Also, remember that we would only need 44% equity against button's stackoff range even if we knew he was going to call. With decent fold equity, we need much less.
    I guess I am the DONKEY, because I chose the WORST play - HAHAHAHA!!! (no wonder I am on a down streak...) I chose to raise it to $105, thinking that I had FE against a light button raise (two broadway cards, medium pocket pairs, etc.), I probably had the best hand against the field, and that I wanted to protect my stack if button had a truly premium hand. As in he would ship pre-flop with all better, and probably fold or only call with flip-type hands (AJ, AQ, KQ, etc.).

    Maybe villain ships with AJ and AQ and the like, but I think in most low-limit games I play in, villains play more passively with those type of hands and just call, or sometimes fold.

    Also, if called, I thought I could probably stack off on low boards (T or lower?), and with sets of course. Cool

    Thoughts on my reasoning for raising instead of shipping or flatting? Is my logic terrible or reasonable? Thanks!
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