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big draw vs raise on paired board

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 300 max nl

Villain (300) old man. Playing pretty straightforward. Probably doesn't 3b much preflop and doesnt seem to be the type to make moves. Only played about 20 mins so reads aren't super solid.

Hero (300) pretty bad image. Lost a bunch of hands where I either just raised pre and gave up or had to bet/fold vs obvious better hands. I never show so who knows what villains think I had.

Hero (utg+2) A s J s raises to 11.
Villain (Mp) calls
Everyone else folds

(21)
Flop: 4s 3s 2d
Hero bets 15, villain raises to 30, hero calls.

(81)
Turn: 4s 3s 2d 2c
Hero checks, villain bets 40, hero?

Is the flop a b/3b? I guess villain could have flatted a hand like pocket kings and now randomly min raise the flop, but with a bad image is he ever folding that? I figured I can call and draw cheaply and not have to basically 3b/call off.

40 is a small bet but a lot of old guys don't bet size properly anyway. You'd figure with an overpaid he'd bet more to protect.

If I think he has overpairs in his range it tilts towards a call, but am I bet/folding if I hit an ace or a jack? Bet folding a 5? All of my outs are kind of obvious, I'm oop and I could be drawing dead.

Thoughts on flop, and as played whether to call turn or fold and if I call turn sizing of I hit river.

Comments

  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    I think that this is 77-JJ almost always (obviously JJ is discounted slightly given that we have a J). Old Man Coffee probably isn't calling pre-flop with 56, and we have the As, so he doesn't have A5ss. I guess he coud have the other combos of A5s, but A5o is probably not in the range. That leaves 22, 33 and 44 as hands that have us drawing dead.

    I call the $40 and obviously fold river unimproved. I think that a 5 or an Ace are really bad cards for extracting value for us if Villian does have an overpair as villian will put us on an Ace always. A flushing card is a bet fold (I would go with like $65 or 70 - even though that's less than 1/2 pot it looks like a big bet in 1/2) and if Villian shoves he always has a full house.

    I don't like a B/3B on the flop. Everything worse is folding and everything better is calling/getting it in.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Call and lead river if you hit. If you get raised snap fold. You are going to have him beat enough of the time to get called by worse when you hit and your draw is pretty big. I would bet A5J or s on the river.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    You're a favorite on the flop against any one pair hand with like a million outs (~17ish). And if he's raising so small, most of the time he won't have better than one pair
    AND if he's an old guy, you might have fold equity if he has a medium PP if you can convince him you have an OP

    So why not bet and 3bet the flop and be happy to get it in against an old guy?

    Against the younger and more aggro type who are likely to stab if I check, I would go for a C/R on the flop
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Ya i guess i didnt really say anything about flop play. Im just getting it in here. You have more than enough equity in the hand to make it +ev and if you ca get him to fold like JJ or something thats a big win for you.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    A lot of times I think we can read old man coffees for a small overpair here based on his flop raise sizing. Min raises vs cbets are so often top pairs trying to "see where they're at". I think in this case we do have a pretty good amount of fold equity vs 66-99, not to mention actual equity in the hand. OMCs hate to get it in drawing dead (~2 outs) vs a perceived overpair. Though I think our own bad image should be factored in a little bit, I still think we are not making much of a mistake by retaking the initiative and forcing a decision from the villian.
    plus : F it. How often do we crush the flop this hard in holdem?
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Thanks. I'm thinking about shoving back vs some of those old guys in the future.

    I just thought a lot of those guys hate folding overpairs, and they also internet so if he has jj he might bet like 20 again on brick turns and I didn't have to risk my stack on the off chance he flopped really big.

    I actually called, river was a 9, I just gave up and he checked back pocket tens and he won.

    I asked a friend and we weren't sure if the turn wasn't just a fold. Old guys love to play pairs. Usually they raise to protect against draws, but on this board he might "put me on a big pair" and raise smaller just because its so low. Its hard to get paid if an ace or 5 hits. Flush is also kinda obvious, and jacks might not even be good. If the board isn't paired maybe I get super lucky and stack an unlikely hand, but here there is a cap on my implied.

    Thanks for the comments. I think I should play these draws faster vs old guys and see if I get folds.
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