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Can I ever call the river without the nuts? (2/5)

I'm playing in a 2/5 $500 capped game.
I have a solid/tight winning image with $1400.

UTG limps

Villain 1 UTG+1 raises to $30. He's a tight/solid player, and I've seen him make big folds this session. He has me covered.

Villain 2 in MP calls. He has $1100. Very tight PF and I haven't seen him play any big hands. Younger pot head that's always leaving the table to go smoke.

I'm on the button and I flat with 10 10

Flop 10 7 4 ($115; somebody posted)

V1 checks. V2 bets $80.
Hero raises to $220. V1 folds. V2 tanks for about 20 seconds and calls.

Turn 5 ($555)

V2 leads $350. Hero thinks for 10 seconds and calls.

River: 2

V2 bets $500 leaving $4 in white behind.

--------

My thoughts when he tanks my flop raise and calls is that he had a smaller set.
If he calls with Ax , I don't think most players will lead when they hit on the turn.

Thoughts on turn action?

As played, can I ever call the river putting him on a smaller set with a flush out there?
Or does he always have the nuts.
«1

Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited February 2015
    His bet sizing indicates a high flush , but there are obv limited combos of those considering he raised from +1 and hero rated him as "very tight preflop": AKhh, AQhh, AJhh, KQhh. Does he have more heart combos from early position?

    Seems pretty close considering the action and the bet sizing, but he could certainly be doing this with AxAh, KxKh, QxQh , of which there are a lot more combos. What percentage of high pairs do u think he bets on the river for that sizing?
  • SupremeNinja Posts: 137Subscriber
    edited February 2015
    The villain in question is actually V2, who limped in MP. The preflop raiser folded on the flop.
  • AJD804AJD804 Posts: 184Subscriber
    Am I correct in assuming that when you say V2 hasnt played big hands, you mean he hasnt been in big pots? Either way, going off of your brief description, the only hands I can put him on here is AK AQ and maybe KQ

    I would think with they way he played it, it wouldnt be a set over set on the flop situation because with how he played the flop, I would think he would go for the check raise on the turn instead of leading out. I dont think he would have called you with 55 for a turned set, and I really cant see him playing AA-JJ the way he did. The only thing that would give me pause would be how long it took him to call your flop raise. Usually a draw calls a lot quicker, but if he is very tight he could be nitty and that is why it took him some time to call. I think we have to fold here
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    ooooooh, my bad. reading comprehension ftw!

    being a caller pre does widen his range to a lot / most suited broadways i assume. this may tip the scale towards a fold on the river. i think most of his lower sets 3bet the bet the flop, and many times, if he check calls flop to trap, he most likely isn't bombing a flush turn card.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Very tight and pot head can create different situations. Maybe he's high enough he loosened up and got crazy with a weird hand. It almost seems like he got weird PF with suited connector hearts and had some sort of straight draw on the flop. J9h 89h. Or it's AKh and it looked pretty on the flop. But would he lead flop with all those? I think the triple barrel is a set or flush for sure. given the combo of tight but now high it's a tough call. As played you almost have to call river.
  • dgiharrisdgiharris Posts: 141Member
    I think it's wishful thinking to read this villain for a baby set that has now decided to turn his set into a bluff when the heart hits. Normally, that isn't how baby sets would play in this spot. A baby set is normally going to check turn when the heart hits.

    So now it becomes a matter of whether or not our villain (who you said is tight and hasn't played ANY big pots) is now all of a sudden trying to bluff us in a big pot after we raised flop and shown tons of strength.

    folding big hands like this sucks so bad, but it's the difference between winning and crushing.

    Or put another way. What is the point of having all of our poker knowledge and skill if we just play this spot like any normal rec-fish? Serious question, 100% of all recreational players are never folding top set in this spot, they just aren't folding it. So what does it say about us if we don't fold either? Where is the reciprocity?

    That is one of the things I like to think of in spots like this.
    Every time we make a +EV play our villains would not make, we win
    Every time we avoid a -EV play our villains would not avoid, we win

    100% of recreational players are never folding a set here. So what does it mean for us in this spot if we likewise don't fold?

    Obviously if villain was loose or making moves or had a decent bluff frequency or was splashing around a lot then his range would be wide enough for us to make the call. But that is not what was indicated in the OP. Based on the OP, this is a clear puke fold on river. Absolutely horrendously sick fold, but a fold nonetheless.
  • dgiharrisdgiharris Posts: 141Member
    edited February 2015
    SupremeNinja said:
    ...My thoughts when he tanks my flop raise and calls is that he had a smaller set.
    If he calls with Ax , I don't think most players will lead when they hit on the turn.

    Thoughts on turn action? .
    Once you raise the flop the cat is out of the bag that you have a big hand, so why wouldn't he just bet into you?

    If this was 1/2nl or 1/3nl I think you would be more in the right as far as a flush not betting into you. At that level, players like to be more passive passive trappy trappy with their big hands even when the writing is on the wall that they hit their draw.

    But at 2/5nl, that is less the case in spots like this. You raised the flop, shown tons of strength, when V check/calls his hand is face up as a flush draw most times. So when he bets out on the turn, he is repping the flush because everyone's hand is already turned face up, so no need for deception.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    If your folding the river you should probably just fold the turn. You can't call looking to fill up if you really think he has a flush. Are you hoping to check check the river after he bets the flop and turn? Do you really think he'll pay off when the board pairs?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    on the turn, i like a call for a couple reasons: we have equity against everything, and it is still quite possible we have the best hand (ie, the villain is semi-bluffing and/or value betting a worse hand). when he shoves the river that didn't fill our hand, we have new information that he still is very confident in his hand, and with three hearts on the board it looks like a fold ON THE RIVER.
    and yes, i believe many players will pay off with flushes here if we improve. live players don't like folding made flushes, especially high ones. and yes, double entendre intended.
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    edited February 2015
    Looks like a fold on river getting 3.5 to 1. I never see people take this line as a bluff and his line is a super common if he had a flush.
  • dgiharrisdgiharris Posts: 141Member
    if board pairs, he isn't folding a flush, he will crying call
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    I would call turn getting 2.5 to 1. You have 10 outs so you need 3.5 to 1 to make the call if he has flush. With the implied odds and the small-ish but not neglectable chance you have the best hand and you will get to showdown I would not fold turn.
    by 1Oneup
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    chilidog said:
    . when he shoves the river that didn't fill our hand, we have new information that he still is very confident in his hand.
    I'm pretty sure we already had this info when he called a raise on the flop and lead the turn. I think we only call turn if we are putting him on high and could be doing anything. It's one thing if we just aren't sure but calling to fill up seems bad.

    The villain desription is a little weird. If he is "always" leaving the table to get high then we have been playing with him for a while and if he has remained tight the whole time then he is a nit who is proably only playing this way with AKh exactly so just belive him on the turn. If he's a nit with a set he probably comes back over on the flop. He is "always" getting high because waiting for the nuts can get boring. When these players wake up the sooner you can fold the better.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    dgiharris said:
    if board pairs, he isn't folding a flush, he will crying call
    I'm not sure that's guranteed. We have basically announced our hand and he is very tight playing no big pots.

  • SupremeNinja Posts: 137Subscriber
    pokertime said:
    chilidog said:
    . when he shoves the river that didn't fill our hand, we have new information that he still is very confident in his hand.
    I'm pretty sure we already had this info when he called a raise on the flop and lead the turn. I think we only call turn if we are putting him on high and could be doing anything. It's one thing if we just aren't sure but calling to fill up seems bad.

    The villain desription is a little weird. If he is "always" leaving the table to get high then we have been playing with him for a while and if he has remained tight the whole time then he is a nit who is proably only playing this way with AKh exactly so just belive him on the turn. If he's a nit with a set he probably comes back over on the flop. He is "always" getting high because waiting for the nuts can get boring. When these players wake up the sooner you can fold the better.
    I think folding the turn, and calling the turn are both fine plays.

    As others stated above, we do have the right odds to call if he does have a flush. We only need another $285 and he has $500. 99% of the players can't make the fold if the board pairs on the river. I'm not saying this specific player can't, but I don't have enough history/evidence with him to tell me otherwise.

    If he DOESN'T have the flush, and has a smaller set as I strongly suspected. I think he is checking back the river. His action on the river will solidify our read on his hand.

    Is $500 an awkward stack to be left with? Or is it still a big bet? the pot is $1250. At what point would he feel pot stuck and shove river his entire range? $300? $400?



  • SupremeNinja Posts: 137Subscriber
    dgiharris said:
    Or put another way. What is the point of having all of our poker knowledge and skill if we just play this spot like any normal rec-fish? Serious question, 100% of all recreational players are never folding top set in this spot, they just aren't folding it. So what does it say about us if we don't fold either? Where is the reciprocity?

    That is one of the things I like to think of in spots like this.
    Every time we make a +EV play our villains would not make, we win
    Every time we avoid a -EV play our villains would not avoid, we win

    100% of recreational players are never folding a set here. So what does it mean for us in this spot if we likewise don't fold?
    Thank you for this. I had a really good year, and started getting into a bit of winners tilt at the end of 2014. I played a more loose-aggro style which was higher variance, but I wasn't sure if it was more or less profitable yet.

    That transcended into thinking that if I just put in the hours the money will come, but I found myself spewing in spots that I would never have done a few months ago.

    I think I'm really good at extracting value, but as of late my leak has been to make -EV calls I wouldn't have made when I was a nit grinding a bankroll.

    This post will truly come in handy :tu:
  • dgiharrisdgiharris Posts: 141Member
    edited February 2015
    pokertime said:
    dgiharris said:
    if board pairs, he isn't folding a flush, he will crying call
    I'm not sure that's guranteed. We have basically announced our hand and he is very tight playing no big pots.

    Don't confuse tight with scared money. Tight does not mean our villains will fold big hands to a 2/3 pot sized bet.

    I strongly disagree with your post. Villains don't fold their big hands when the river screws them, unless it's something horrible like a 4-to-a-straight or the river double pairs the board counterfeiting their baby fullhouse (and even still they call). Villains get emotionally vested in the hand, especially tight players. They have been waiting all day long for that big hand, and then the stars align and they get their big hand and get the flop they've been waiting all day for then the turn is magic, FINALLY they hit their flush!!!! But then BOOM, river pairs the board and now their nut hand isn't so nutty, and then they check and we bet 2/3 pot which by that point nearly puts them all in because the pot is so big...

    They aren't folding.

    They will slam their fist on the table, shoot the dealer a "why me" look, and then they will say "nice river" and then they will call easily 9 times out of 10.

    This reminds me of a spot I had a month ago against a tight player who was OOP in the SB. I was on the BTN with TT, 4 limpers to me, I raise $25 preflop Tight player calls from SB, two callers. Game is 2/5nl eff stacks $700-ish.

    Flop(100) T 4 8
    chks to me, I bet $75, SB calls, MP calls, rest fold, 3-way action.

    Turn(325) 3
    SB perks up then chks, MP chks, I chk it back (FU and your c/r)

    River(325) 3
    SB bets out $200, MP folds, I raise him to $550. Oh man, the look on his face was priceless. He picks up his cards and flicks them with his finger showing his neighbor and then says, "I know I had you on the turn" and then he tables A J and then says, "Lucky river, nice hand, I call."

    I turn over the boat and he proudly, PROUDLY announces to the table "I knew it, I knew you had a boat" but then in the next breath he says, "But I have the nut flush, I have to call" and likewise, everyone at the table agrees with him that he has to call, he has the nut flush

    I think this is something thinking players just can't wrap their heads around. I think too often we let our own biases work against us. We think that just because our hand is obvious, just because the betting turns our hand face up that our villains are going to fold. No. No. No.

    They will still call, even when they are 100% sure they are beat, they will still call, because they are fish and that is what fish do, even "tight" fish. Hell, especially tight fish. When a fish literally only plays 1 or 2 hands an hour and has been getting chipped down for 2 or 3 or even 4 hours and said fish FINALLY hits their hand, you think he's folding this river when his flush is no longer the nuts just because the board paired? No. He's going to call and then he's going to whine for the next 10 minutes about how he hasn't been getting any hands and how we got lucky on the river and how he knew he was beat but had to call....
  • SupremeNinja Posts: 137Subscriber
    dgiharris said:

    I turn over the boat and he proudly, PROUDLY announces to the table "I knew it, I knew you had a boat" but then in the next breath he says, "But I have the nut flush, I have to call" and likewise, everyone at the table agrees with him that he has to call, he has the nut flush
    We can also suss out the other players at the table that agree genuinely, and the players that agree so he continues to feel comfortable playing the way he does.

    :lol:
  • Ironkidsb Posts: 219Subscriber
    I think you guys are all giving some decent advice, I think it gets better as the thread goes on and then worse and then better and then gets a little off track and then I'm not quite sure why you added that last comment to this thread Ninja, it's not totally off topic, it just sounds like it should be under a different thread.

    Basically, 1) I think you played pre-flop fine 2) I don't think you need to put such an emphasis on someone being "high" because for all you know "high" is normal for this guy 3) I like the raise on the flop and I think that was good sizing 4) I don't think he has a smaller set because if he's the type of player that's going to lead the flop with a set then, in my experience at the 2/5 level, he's gunna come back over the top on the flop, especially with a flush draw out there. (If he's fast playing his set and you re-open the betting, he's gunna raise you back, he's not gunna slow down at that point). 5) Two overs and a flush draw (or sometimes just a flush draw or combo draw) is much, much more likely than a smaller set or two pair when a player leads and then just calls in this spot at this level. 6) I think you can go either way on the turn, I don't hate the call and I don't hate a fold (as long as you know the situation, ie,. you are most likely behind). 7) On a blank river, I think it's definitely a fold when he shoves. If the board pairs, I very rarely see players folding a flush in this situation, so if it pairs and gets checked to you, I'd go for gold and push it all-in. If it pairs and he bets into you, push him all-in.

    Just remember, especially at the 2/5 level, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's a duck. 9 out of 10 times it is what it looks like it is, simple as that.

    If a player is going to get tricky once a night, then let him. But if he does it over and over again then of course you need to adjust. But from your description of this guy, it sounds like he's playing his hand face up.

    I hope that's helpful.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    edited February 2015
    I didn't read all the post above so sorry if this is repeat.

    I think this is simple.

    If the guy is CAPABLE of a totally sick 2 barrel bluff and you know this for a fact. Like you have seen him make this play before (or plays of this nature). Or he is on mega-tilt and is trying to give his chips away. Then you should call.

    Otherwise, with 99% of players in your player pool (perhaps as high as 99.8%) this is a flush. So it is an easy fold.

    Again,

    If Sick super insane poker Beast (i.e. Claire)... Call.
    Normal player (i.e. Everyone else)... fold.
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