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turning pair + draw into a bluff?

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 300 max nl

Villain (350) somewhat stationy pre and a little weak post. He'll do stuff like check back top pair on the river and tell people he should have bet but he was afraid of xyz etc. I've seen him make small cbets with ak high on a jack high board, so he isn't necessarily super strong.

Hero(400) image should be ok. Lost a few hands where I bet flop, bet turn and got raised etc and had to fold. Took down a few others without showdown and got it in with a short stack with pocket kings that held up. History with villain: I had a spot where I raised aq, another guy called, villain called in the sb and a short stack limp reraised to 60. I thought that was enougb that I didn't have to shove bac to iso, but suprisingly city players called. Board ran out 9227a. Flop/turn checked through. River I was going to bet but villain donk shoved for 200.from the sb. I thought for a while and folded. He showed 99 and I almost fell out of my chair, so maybe he wants to get me a little.

Utg limps
Villain (hj) raises to 11
Sb calls
Hero (bb) 9cTc calls
Utg calls

(40)
flop: J s T s 8d
Checks to villain, I villain bets 15, sb folds, I decide to check/raise to 50, villain thinks for a while and calls. Utg folds

(140)
Turn: J s T s 8 d 3s
Hero bets 100, villain thinks for a while and calls

(340)
River: J s T s 8 d 3 s 2 c
Hero checks, villain bets 80, hero?

Might be a little spray to raise flop. I thought the small cbet was unlikely to be a set or 2 pair. there are a lot of bad turn cards for me, and I thought I could put a ton of pressure on an overpair which I'm actually not far behind.

Spade isnt great, but I thought if he has an overpair without a spade or something like aj without a spade the board is scary and he might just give up a ton of the time. I actually have 11 outs vs a hand like aa with a spade also, and if he ships its the nut flush almost alwashould I just fold.

I probably should fire river but it is 1/2 and I just didn't know of the guy is folding an overpair at this point. For all I know he's slowplaying the nut flush.

River bet sizing is weird though. I didn't know if this guy value bets 1 pair here, and most rec players can't fold so why bet less than a shove when he can take a showdown and can't fold if I raise. I think if he had a flush he probably ships like the other hand. Really wonder if he worked up the mettle to value bet aces or something.

Could i ever be good here? I beat like ak/kq/aq with a spade, but if he's going to bluff wouldn't he just shove instead of betting small, and are plank villains really shoving missed draws that often?

thoughts on whether the entire hand is spew, whether i should shove the river and whether there is any merit in making a crying call expecting to lose just bc the bet is so weird
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