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Betting a Scary Turn w 2nd Pr

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Ok. I think I played this hand right but welcome feedback from people. Would you bet the turn here? On the turn I can get called by worse (high diamond) PLUS I may be able to get an ace to fold since I believe villian knows I bet my draws as well as made hands. Seems like the combo bet Bart talked about where worse can call and better can fold. What do you think? Also the river is a clear check fold but if the river wasn't a diamond I'm guessing its probably the same- A chk fold?

Here's the hand:
Merge, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (CO): $65.13 (32.6 bb)
BTN: $246.56 (123.3 bb)
SB: $98.62 (49.3 bb)
BB: $126.80 (63.4 bb)
MP1: $149.50 (74.8 bb)
MP2: $119.33 (59.7 bb)
MP3: $182 (91 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Th Jh
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) Td 2h Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $8.50, BTN calls $8.50

Turn: ($34) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $17, BTN calls $17

River: ($68) 8d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Results: $68 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: Td 2h Ad 6d 8d
Hero showed Th Jh and lost (-$32.50 net)
BTN showed Jd Jc and won $65 ($32.50 net)

Comments

  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    What part of the V's range did you think you were ahead of? Betting half the pot on the flop seems really weak to me as a cbet. I would bet 12-14 here. Turn is questionable, but you have to think V is floating the flop with air. If he has an A, you are beat. If he has a combo draw, he is calling 17 to win 51, so he is priced in to call. At some point, you just have to give up on the hand or hope to get a showdown IMHO.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I'd often check back the flop with second pair, but in case I decided to bet, I would often check back the turn. I don't think you will get called by worse hands for two streets once the flush comes in.

    Regarding sizing: if you decide to bet the flop, bet bigger! With a flush draw and several gutshot straight draws possible, I'd bet at least 2/3 pot.
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    Zach Z-H said

    What part of the V's range did you think you were ahead of? Betting half the pot on the flop seems really weak to me as a cbet. I would bet 12-14 here. Turn is questionable, but you have to think V is floating the flop with air. If he has an A, you are beat. If he has a combo draw, he is calling 17 to win 51, so he is priced in to call. At some point, you just have to give up on the hand or hope to get a showdown IMHO.
    Typing on my phone, just to clarify, when I said you have to think V is floating with air, I meant YOU have to think that to make the bet, becuase you aren't ahead of much.....
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    I was out pf position turn, not in position. I dont know - seems worse will call. I guess Barts thin value betting that one hand stating single high flush card will call got me thinking I should do this. Concerning sizing i CONSISTANTLY bet 1/2 pot online not matter what I have on a cbet. I bluff enough that I'll bet this with the nuts or air. If I started betting 2/3 or 3/4 pot consistantly I'm not sure it's the best long term. I looked at my stats and info in HEM and says I'm making money in the long run with 65% CB status with it working 33% of the time. I dont think if I increased my CB sizing it would change the amount of times I'm called really online which than would make my cbets unprofitable long term. I did all the math on this which is why I bet 1/2 pot. Plus I want draws to call me as long as I don't pay them off. Of course I bet again here when it came in ... Anyways that's why I bet 1/2 pot. Whatyourplay - what would you do out of position. You answered it thinking I was in position.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    Zach:
    On the flop:Its not that I"m ahead of much. Its that I'm repping a strong ace and its going to be difficult for villian to call with a strong ace or diamonds which he wont have most of the time. Plus a pr of 10s may be good and a flush draw or pr like JJ which he had will call once but give up on turn to 2nd barrel. Most of the time I'm thinking he's not going to have a hand strong enough to call 2 streets with most of his range.
    On the turn: Now I could have a flush and he has to wory about a flush AND a pr of aces. If he calls I'm probably done with the hand as an ace and a flush beat me (As do a pr like JJ or QQ however most of the time villian will fold here. The only reason he called was he had a J of diamonds but I still think its a bad call).
    On the river: I guess chk fold is right no matter what comes. Just curious as river bet in this case if a diamond misses wouldve worked but I guess thats being too results oriented. Although if I put in a big bet on the river it is a tough call without the K of diamonds. Depends on whether or not he's capable of folding a J high flush - most people arent I know.
    Zach Z-H said
    Zach Z-H said

    What part of the V's range did you think you were ahead of? Betting half the pot on the flop seems really weak to me as a cbet. I would bet 12-14 here. Turn is questionable, but you have to think V is floating the flop with air. If he has an A, you are beat. If he has a combo draw, he is calling 17 to win 51, so he is priced in to call. At some point, you just have to give up on the hand or hope to get a showdown IMHO.
    Typing on my phone, just to clarify, when I said you have to think V is floating with air, I meant YOU have to think that to make the bet, becuase you aren't ahead of much.....
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    wildncrazyguy said

    Zach:
    On the flop:Its not that I"m ahead of much. Its that I'm repping a strong ace and its going to be difficult for villian to call with a strong ace or diamonds which he wont have most of the time.


    The problem with this is that a huge portion of the range that V calls your raise with consists of A hands. If not an A, but 2 broadway cards, he has picked up a gutshot and perhaps backdoor flush draw (or flush draw). You are representing something that is not likely to get V to fold, especially at this level. If you had AK and he had AQ, you would be getting value on all 3 streets. Here, you are just burning money IMHO. I don't think V's range folds to your bet often and your hand is essentially a bluff on the turn.

    I really think repping cards is completely overrated at the 1/2 level, and somewhat at the 2/5 level. I think you are better off playing your hands essentially straight forward and value betting your winning hands all day.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    wildncrazyguy said
    Whatyourplay - what would you do out of position. You answered it thinking I was in position.
    Sorry I got the positions wrong, Dan. You are correct that being out of position should make us more inclined to bet. Villain's stats would be very helpful here to come up with a reasonable decision. In a vacuum, I would probably cbet often but check the turn most of the time (my reaction to a turn bet from villain highly depends on his stats, like aggression factor and such.)
    wildncrazyguy said
    Concerning sizing i CONSISTANTLY bet 1/2 pot online not matter what I have on a cbet. I bluff enough that I'll bet this with the nuts or air. If I started betting 2/3 or 3/4 pot consistantly I'm not sure it's the best long term. I looked at my stats and info in HEM and says I'm making money in the long run with 65% CB status with it working 33% of the time. I dont think if I increased my CB sizing it would change the amount of times I'm called really online which than would make my cbets unprofitable long term. I did all the math on this which is why I bet 1/2 pot. Plus I want draws to call me as long as I don't pay them off. Of course I bet again here when it came in ... Anyways that's why I bet 1/2 pot.
    I am very confident that this is not the optimal way of cbet sizing and frequencies bet size. The reason is that your sizing is only one factor that influences how often your bet will get called.

    Of course it is possible to MAKE MONEY in the long run with half pot bets and a cbet stat of 65%. However, the important question is if you are making THE MOST MONEY with this play. Let's say you have a very strong hand and you knew that villain will call with 100% of this range. You can of course bet half the pot, but why not bet more?

    One very important factor which you should also take into consideration is the board texture. On drawy boards, villain will generally call both MORE OFTEN and LARGER BETS. So, if you have a value hand, you want to bet bigger to get maximum value. And if you have a (semi-)bluff, you want to bet larger in order to create fold equity. In your example above, you won't get better hands to fold, and you don't get maximum value from worse (lots of hands will call more than half pot).

    The same applies on the turn, but to a somewhat lower extent (you can bet a bit less than on the flop, since draws have less equity with only one card to come).
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