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2/5 A big draw

Phil Posts: 4Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 NL. My starting stack is about 550. V has me covered.

9Ts (two spades) in MP. Raise to 25 over 1 limper and get 4 callers.

Flop (100) 8s 7s 3h. V in the SB bets 125. From his body language and timing preflop plus the overbet on the flop lets assume he has an overpair 100% of the time (QQ+). Folds to me. I have 525 behind. Raise sizing here? Call and shove any turn when he leads?

Comments

  • You don't think the sb would have 3b QQ+ preflop? I can see flatting with AK/AQ but knowing that the rest of the hand is going to be played OOP, that seems like an odd time to just flat unless he thought you were super spewy and going to get it in on the flop.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Phil said

    2/5 NL. My starting stack is about 550. V has me covered.

    9Ts (two spades) in MP. Raise to 25 over 1 limper and get 4 callers.

    Flop (100) 8s 7s 3h. V in the SB bets 125. From his body language and timing preflop plus the overbet on the flop lets assume he has an overpair 100% of the time (QQ+). Folds to me. I have 525 behind. Raise sizing here? Call and shove any turn when he leads?
    Wow this is really tough!.. Generally leading into 4 players is pretty strong especially into the preflop raiser.. And the oversize bet tends to be a "protection" bet.. ie for everyone to fold the flush draw.. BUT even against aces you are a big favorite. You really only need to worry about sets and two pairs. Then your equity is still about 35%

    Have you seen this guy do this play before with a one pair hand? If so then I am shoving.. Your equity even when you get called is probably 65% because most players who make these oversize bets dont have a flush draw. Also with you going all in on the flop I think you may just get him to fold..

    Now if he is a station and will never fold to you shove then wow its a pretty sick spot because I am not really sure you can fold on the turn after you call his $125.. $125 pre $125 him $125 you= $375 you have $550-$25-$125=$400 he shoves on turn pot will be $375 pot +$400 him =$775 $400 to call just a little under 2:1 or you only need 30% equity which would be close..

    So if you feel pot committed then shove anyways to protect against someone who just might have a lower flush and straight draw.. like 56s, 54s, 64s.. You actually beat those hands and you wouldnt want to get pushed off on the turn if no spade or your straight bricks out..

    The one really really bad spot would be if he had a hand like Ax spades then you are pretty much crushed.. And again this is read dependent.. If you have never seen this guy lead out with the nut flush draw then you can also take that out of his range and I discount naked Kx -Jx draws because you have the Ts so he cant have JTs ie the other straight and flush draw.. most players dont play naked non ace high flush draws for big leads.. I have seen some players check raise with these hands but not lead..

    Let us know what happened?

    Wendy
  • Phil Posts: 4Member
    Thanks for the reply.

    I am looking for the line to get max value out of opponent assuming he has over cards for reasons previously stated.

    2/5 NL. My starting stack is about 550. V has me covered.

    9Ts (two spades) in MP. Raise to 25 over 1 limper and get 4 callers.
    Flop (100) 8s 7s 3h. V in the SB bets 125. From his body language and timing preflop plus the overbet on the flop lets assume he has an overpair 100% of the time (QQ+). Folds to me. I have 525 behind. I thought about shoving / raising to 400 (which I think would have been the optimal line in retrospect). I have a 55/45 here against QQ,KK,AA and I think he was the type of player to call a large raise there.

    Unfortunately I called.
    Turn (350) 2s (yay). He says "same bet" and bets 125. I have 400 behind. I thought about it for a while and just called. I think any raise there would push him off the hand and on a blank river I could probably get my whole stack in.

    River (550) As. He takes another look at his cards and says 'ALL IN' (LOL) and I fold. He shows QQ one spade.

    So the question is did I butcher this hand by not raising the flop or did I just get unlucky with that river? I feel like I knew exactly where I was at the whole hand.
  • You know you're a favorite on the flop against an over pair, right? This is the easiest shove on the flop ever. You may have no fold equity, but it does NOT matter! You're an equity favorite. Get it in! I mean, no offense, but this hand is really simple and there is no need to over analyze it. Just calling flop is bad. You want to realize your equity immediately. No need to ever let him fold his hand by calling and him actually folding sometimes when you hit your flush on the turn.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Phil said

    Thanks for the reply.

    I am looking for the line to get max value out of opponent assuming he has over cards for reasons previously stated.

    2/5 NL. My starting stack is about 550. V has me covered.

    9Ts (two spades) in MP. Raise to 25 over 1 limper and get 4 callers.
    Flop (100) 8s 7s 3h. V in the SB bets 125. From his body language and timing preflop plus the overbet on the flop lets assume he has an overpair 100% of the time (QQ+). Folds to me. I have 525 behind. I thought about shoving / raising to 400 (which I think would have been the optimal line in retrospect). I have a 55/45 here against QQ,KK,AA and I think he was the type of player to call a large raise there.

    Unfortunately I called.
    Turn (350) 2s (yay). He says "same bet" and bets 125. I have 400 behind. I thought about it for a while and just called. I think any raise there would push him off the hand and on a blank river I could probably get my whole stack in.

    River (550) As. He takes another look at his cards and says 'ALL IN' (LOL) and I fold. He shows QQ one spade.

    So the question is did I butcher this hand by not raising the flop or did I just get unlucky with that river? I feel like I knew exactly where I was at the whole hand.

    You butchered the hand.. sorry Embarassed with so much equity as I thought, you really want to just shove. If he folds you win and if he calls you win. Its the best scenario you could ask for given you do NOT have a made hand yet. Then not raising the turn allows him to price himself for his own equity as well..even though he might have realized he was pot committed as well.

    Two suggestions:

    1) You MUST keep track of the pot and effective stack sizes to know if you would be committed at what point in the hand. In this case you should have realized this based on your stack size and the range you have assigned him. I dont think you did this as well as you could.


    2) I am not sure if this is an issue but it was for me and I decided to move down in stakes. I realized that I wasnt comfortable with the bet sizes in the bigger game to play properly. I needed to build my confidence and winnings to get back to playing correctly. If you are afraid of getting in $550 with this kind of situation then I suggest you too move down to a level where the money isnt scary.

    No one plays every hand well. Yesterday I really butchered a hand against a bad player.. So dont beat yourself up.. but learn from this and make sure you play better next time. This hand cost you at least $250 in + equity and even more if he called. Regardless if he called and you lose... your expectation is still the same.. I know alot about running below expectation but I keep getting it in good..

    Wendy
  • Phil said

    Thanks for the reply.

    I am looking for the line to get max value out of opponent assuming he has over cards for reasons previously stated.

    2/5 NL. My starting stack is about 550. V has me covered.

    9Ts (two spades) in MP. Raise to 25 over 1 limper and get 4 callers.
    Flop (100) 8s 7s 3h. V in the SB bets 125. From his body language and timing preflop plus the overbet on the flop lets assume he has an overpair 100% of the time (QQ+). Folds to me. I have 525 behind. I thought about shoving / raising to 400 (which I think would have been the optimal line in retrospect). I have a 55/45 here against QQ,KK,AA and I think he was the type of player to call a large raise there.

    Unfortunately I called.
    Turn (350) 2s (yay). He says "same bet" and bets 125. I have 400 behind. I thought about it for a while and just called. I think any raise there would push him off the hand and on a blank river I could probably get my whole stack in.

    River (550) As. He takes another look at his cards and says 'ALL IN' (LOL) and I fold. He shows QQ one spade.

    So the question is did I butcher this hand by not raising the flop or did I just get unlucky with that river? I feel like I knew exactly where I was at the whole hand.
    I would just shove the flop with the equity that you have.

    I'm still curious why you would think that he has only QQ+ in this hand? Is that hindsight looking backwards or was that really your read when he bet the flop? Of course, I have no history with the V and you didn't post anything about his tendencies, but, I really would have a hard time putting a competent player on QQ+ here. I just would think that a 3b would have happened pf. Instead, without much history, I would be thinking Axs, KQs, KJs, or a pp for a flat call oop pf and then a donk bet on the flop.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    "I have a 55/45 here against QQ,KK,AA and I think he was the type of player to call a large raise there."

    Your equity estimate is incorrect. Against a single over pair you have 9 flush cards and 6 straight outs (since two were counted in flush) =15 I use the short hand estimate for equity percentage which is

    outs *2*2cards to come= 15*2*2=60%..

    this is of course assuming if I hit either I am good but if you are up against a single pair hand you are around 65/35.. If you two overs as well then you ABSOLUTELY CRUSH HIM

    15 flush and straight out and 6 higher pair outs=21 outs 21*4=84 !

    even one over card to his pair gives you

    15 +3 =18 18*4=72!


    I really dont think he has KK or AA.. After your raise I think he would have three bet you virtually 100%. So you are really dealing with pocket pairs 66-QQs and THOSE hands are MORE likely to FOLD... because they can put YOU on AA or KK..

    You would be surprised at how often you actually get fold equity. Now if he is a station I still think you shove since you are pot committed and need to see all 5 cards to realize your equity.

    Recently a guy who just sat down at the table had bought in for $150 at a 2/3 game .. I raised with AK one player calls on button and he three bet to like 40.. it came back to me and I just 4 bet to $115... this left him with basically making an all in call. I purposely didnt put him all in to make it look a bit scarier and he folds QQ face up..

    wendy
  • eselspiel Posts: 115Subscriber
    wendyweissman said

    "I have a 55/45 here against QQ,KK,AA and I think he was the type of player to call a large raise there."

    Your equity estimate is incorrect. Against a single over pair you have 9 flush cards and 6 straight outs (since two were counted in flush) =15 I use the short hand estimate for equity percentage which is

    outs *2*2cards to come= 15*2*2=60%..

    this is of course assuming if I hit either I am good but if you are up against a single pair hand you are around 65/35.. If you two overs as well then you ABSOLUTELY CRUSH HIM

    15 flush and straight out and 6 higher pair outs=21 outs 21*4=84 !

    even one over card to his pair gives you

    15 +3 =18 18*4=72!


    I really dont think he has KK or AA.. After your raise I think he would have three bet you virtually 100%. So you are really dealing with pocket pairs 66-QQs and THOSE hands are MORE likely to FOLD... because they can put YOU on AA or KK..

    You would be surprised at how often you actually get fold equity. Now if he is a station I still think you shove since you are pot committed and need to see all 5 cards to realize your equity.

    Recently a guy who just sat down at the table had bought in for $150 at a 2/3 game .. I raised with AK one player calls on button and he three bet to like 40.. it came back to me and I just 4 bet to $115... this left him with basically making an all in call. I purposely didnt put him all in to make it look a bit scarier and he folds QQ face up..

    wendy
    60% is incorrect. When countng more than 8 outs, subtract 1 for every out over 8 (see one of Harrington's books).
    So for a 15 out draw equity is 15*4-7=53%

    Stoving give the actaully equity against an overpair and two pair in this hand is 54% and 42% against a set.

    If villains range is only sets, shoving is -EV. However, I think a set goes for a checkraise in this case.

    I'm of the "shove the flop" camp. A bad turn card destroys your equity. If he makes this play with all two pair, overpairs and sets and then calls a shove only with sets, based on the range I give him, it's still +EV to shove.
  • I like to definitely shove the flop. If you have any FE here against a reasonable leading range (and by the way you do) with this time of hand equity shoving has to be the play.

    Bart
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