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How do you play this wrap optimally?

I'm gonna try to skip villain and hero descriptions in this hand as its fairly irrelevant. This may be more of a math question than a poker question.

Limped pot preflop. 6 ways.
Hero BTN holds KQJ8ss on a AT7 :r: flop.
First 4 players check to CO who bets 20.
His range is still quite wide and fairly weak a majority of the time.
Hero raises to 75 with tons of equity.
Folds to MP who x/raises to 275. CO folds.
If I believe MP pretty much always has a set here, what is the optimal line depending on stack depth? In this particular instance, effective stacks were 550 to start the hand.

I believe he will call off a large majority of the time if I just call and hit the turn. I can also get away from the pot if the board pairs as well. If I jam now, I'm getting the money in bad, but I have very close to the amount of equity in the pot that I need for the jam to be +EV.

Should the villain's tendency to tilt if he's sucked out on be a factor in the decision as he is 1500 deep?

Comments

  • jk3a Posts: 46Subscriber
    I would raise pf and call now
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    As played, you have no fold equity. What to do really does depend on stack depth.

    Very deep calling and folding to board pairing cards is likely optimal given your reads on his range.
  • Golfer2013 Posts: 51Subscriber
    You mentioned 2 different stack sizes for villian. Either way I just call there. If the board pairs you fold. You have the 8 and 6 as freeze outs that might slow his betting down some (if he's deep) and possibly let you see a free river. If he's real aggressive he may still pot those cards. The 8 more than the 6 since the 8 looks like a gutterball although if he's real goofy he may think the 8 is more likely a straight since it's higher and makes the board look more coordinated than the 6.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    Given his assumed range there are very good and very bad turn cards for you. With that information I think you nearly always want to call and evaluate turns rather than jam it in now.

    If you have a BDFD that will bump those bottom 29/30%'s up to 40% for the 5 cards of that suit.

    Board - AsTc7d
    PLAYER_1 JsQhKd8h
    PLAYER_2 (TT!RRR),(77!RRR),(AT7)

    Equity breakdown by turn card for PLAYER_1
    image
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    edited March 2015
    Blank turn that puts a possible FD out there that we don't have...

    Board - AsTh7d5s
    PLAYER_1 JsQhKd8h
    PLAYER_2 (TT!RRR),(77!RRR),(AT7)
    All-in Equity
    image

    Blank turn that puts a possible FD out there that we do have...

    Board - AsTh7d5h
    PLAYER_1 JsQhKd8h
    PLAYER_2 (TT!RRR),(77!RRR),(AT7)
    All-in Equity
    image





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