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Flop overbet in 3bet pot

OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/$3/$5 Deep stack game. I have ~$1000, villain covers.

I have been playing pretty snug. Villain in the hand seems to have severe betsizing tells. He has been opening to $15 and making small cbets when weak and opening larger and cbetting bigger when strong. He seems to take weak stabs and then gives up.

I'm in middle position. Folds to loose-passive guy on my right who limps in. In make it $25 with two black tens. Folds around to villain in BB who makes it $80. Limper folds, I call.

Flop: ($160, 2 players):

337r

Villain bets $200.

What's your line and why?

Comments

  • surfdealer Posts: 21Member
    his preflop raise gave you 3:1 so he might hold hands like AK AQs/QQ-AA
    does he like to squeeze? would he 3bet hands like PP? 22-99?
    its a paired board...i guess for me i would ask myself if hes capable of betting A-high hands out of position as a bluff

    but it looks like hes trying to end the hand there OR trying to make you spaz out

    his cbet might only need to work 55% to break even, (even if it is a overbet and he gives up alot like you said), he makes you fold out a lot of hands like QK/AK-ATs and you will have a tuff time calling 88-JJ

    QQ-AA (a small % of the time) if you have those hands you might just call which at that point hes only betting out full houses or JJ-AA OTT if you just call his cbet, (i dont think he bets JJ-AA like this OTF tho because you will only call with a fullhouse yourself) sooooooo

    i would call and see what he does on the turn
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    surfdealer said

    his preflop raise gave you 3:1 so he might hold hands like AK AQs/QQ-AA
    does he like to squeeze? would he 3bet hands like PP? 22-99?
    I have never seen him 3bet before, so he is unlikely to be a squeezer.
  • surfdealer Posts: 21Member
    i dont understand his overbet but i guess its possible to be QQ-AA why he would bet like that i dunno, and JJ is stupid to bet like that

    what could possibly call him??? 88-JJ is tuff, QQ-AA is for sure at least calling one time, and if you raise with QQ-AA and he shoves your dead

    AND if he bets, and you call the overbet, and the turn goes check/check and the river bricks (no flush no Q-K-A) he might bet again hoping for a hero call from you (if hes good and reads you well) are you calling with 44-66/88-99, you might call with TT-JJ but only if you called the flop and thats pretty damn tuff you might time out on that call *live tell?* you also said you were playing pretty tight he might of picked up on that and not take that line (bet flop, check turn, bet river) even if the board is paired

    looks like hes trying to make you spaz, hes out of position doesnt want you to check back, seems like value betting disguised as a bluff
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Let's assign him a conservative 3betting range purely for value like (AK, JJ+), to begin with. Let's also asume that he will cbet his whole range on this A+ board. I.e. he will cbet AK with this large sizing in order to create maximum fold equity / end the hand right there. With those assumtions, he has 24 combos of hands that beat you (JJ+) and 16 combos of AK, so you have 40% equity against his range. The pot is laying you around 35%, so you should call the cbet and evaluate the turn (with the intention of folding to a second barrel).

    If, however, you think he either wouldn't bet AK on this board at all or with a different sizing, than it becomes a fold on the flop.
    On the other hand, if you think he could 3bet light with some trash hands, it becomes more of a call again.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Seems to me like JJ-KK almost all the time and he doesnt want an overcard to come on the turn. Usually when people do this on boards like this is becuase they dont wanna see an A fall on the turn. If he has massive bet sizing tell that he bets small with shit and big with hands he obv has a hand here and you simply dont beat anything he is doing this for value.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    The results:

    I folded.

    I'm not sure if there's much I can do here against a likely very strong range, especially if he sometimes spazzes out and bets again with AK (if he has it in his flop betting range at all).
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