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BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
One of the best actual hands with regards to combinatorics, value and managing stack depth. From 20 minutes ago. Commerce $5-10.

Villain in the hand is an early 50s Persian guy. Plays somewhat tightish.

$3800 effective.

UTG villain limps in. Hero raises MP1 9 9 to $45. Guy to my left calls, BB calls limper calls.

FLOP: A A 5

BB checks, UTG checks I check, guy to my left checks.

TURN: 9

UTG bets $40. I raise to $300. I see out of the corner of my eye him kind of lifting up in his chair. Folds back to him he makes it $600. I think for a long time and call.

RIVER: 7

He bets $900. Hero?
«1

Comments

  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    Pot is $1380 going to the river with $3155 behind effective stacks. Bet on the river is $900, so only $2255 behind after the call...this would be pretty tough to raise/fold at this stack depth with as strong a hand as you have. Sick spot to just call though as you're only behind two combos of Axs: A 5 (only one combo of A5s) and A 7 (again only one combo left of A7s). So that's 2 combos of Ax suited that beat you, and if he's "somewhat tightish" he's not limp/calling UTG A5o, A7o, or A9o.

    So you're behind exactly 2 combos of Axs, and he probably doesn't play A7s on the turn for a bet/3-bet since he isn't full yet, so that leaves only A 5 you're losing to.

    Looks like a raise for value. If you've seen him call large bets before and bluff catch, then it's a jam. If not, maybe make it $2100...?
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Plays kinda tight, but bet / 3-bet minraises you OTT, and then leads the river?

    I'd probably raise / fold. You're deep enough to do so, and he's not gonna shove with a hand you're beating, but he'll call a raise with most Ax hands. Thing is, he doesn't have a very big A× hand here if he just called pre.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    On the flop I'd probably make an exploitative 1/3 pot protection bet since it's 4 way and there is a very high chance someone will hit if an overcard to 99 comes. So by betting we get the hands with 2 overcards to fold out and value from pocket pairs smaller than ours.

    On the river, since he limped UTG and he plays tightish he probably doesn't have A9o or A5o. Even if he limped A9o because he was bored there are only 2 possible combos of that. And since I wouldn't expect this player to check/cold 3bet A7, there are only 3 possible combos of A9o and A5s that beat us. On the other hand there are all 3 combos of 55 and he could possibly play AK or AQ this way. Since we're at worst breaking even with his range and at best crushing it we should be raising here. The question is how much and with a rec player investing close to half his stack with a really strong hand in absolute value I think a shove would get max value.
  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    reedmylips said:
    Pot is $1380 going to the river with $3155 behind effective stacks. Bet on the river is $900, so only $2255 behind after the call...this would be pretty tough to raise/fold at this stack depth with as strong a hand as you have. Sick spot to just call though as you're only behind two combos of Axs: A 5 (only one combo of A5s) and A 7 (again only one combo left of A7s). So that's 2 combos of Ax suited that beat you, and if he's "somewhat tightish" he's not limp/calling UTG A5o, A7o, or A9o.

    So you're behind exactly 2 combos of Axs, and he probably doesn't play A7s on the turn for a bet/3-bet since he isn't full yet, so that leaves only A 5 you're losing to.

    Looks like a raise for value. If you've seen him call large bets before and bluff catch, then it's a jam. If not, maybe make it $2100...?
    Before I looked at the comments, this was my exact line of thinking although I might disagree on the river. If we think he is never folding AQ/AK/55 then shoving is best.
    If you actually believe there's a chance he may fold AQ/AK to a shove then 2100-2200 or so is best. I'm shoving though.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    A9s - 0 combos available
    A5s - 1 combo available
    55 - 3 combos available

    3:1 that he has 5's full IMO.
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    If you don't think he is limp-calling a raise pre-flop with offsuit Ax combos there are no A9 suited combos left, and only one combo of A5 suited (A-5 of clubs). Don't think he is bet three betting the turn with A-7. In fact, I would make the case when you "wake up" on the turn after it goes check-check on the flop, there are not too many non-full aces that are bet-three betting you. A likely holding here could be 55. The turn min-raise is very suspicious though, and I think that line is consistent with A-5 even though that is only one combo.

    I don't like raise folding here because of players tendencies to over play full houses. If you raise to lets say $2000 and he moves in. I think its a call. Thats the line I would take considering there is only one logical combination that beats you.

    Carmine
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    If villain limps w some big aces then i think its even more a raise call. The key is would he bet a full house on the turn?

    If he wud bet 5a full thats three more combos we beat. Where as as many have said there is only one combo of A 7 suited ad7d.

    However if villain only limps weak ace suited cards then wow its way tougher. Because he cant have trip aces unless he is doing this with say Ax dd.

    Ww
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    daniel9861 said:
    On the flop I'd probably make an exploitative 1/3 pot protection bet since it's 4 way and there is a very high chance someone will hit if an overcard to 99 comes. So by betting we get the hands with 2 overcards to fold out and value from pocket pairs smaller than ours.

    On the river, since he limped UTG and he plays tightish he probably doesn't have A9o or A5o. Even if he limped A9o because he was bored there are only 2 possible combos of that. And since I wouldn't expect this player to check/cold 3bet A7, there are only 3 possible combos of A9o and A5s that beat us. On the other hand there are all 3 combos of 55 and he could possibly play AK or AQ this way. Since we're at worst breaking even with his range and at best crushing it we should be raising here. The question is how much and with a rec player investing close to half his stack with a really strong hand in absolute value I think a shove would get max value.
    I agree with this all around.

    To those saying raise/fold, what?!? If the guy overplays AK enough to take this line, then he'll overplay ship when he gets min raised on the river. If he has 55, he will ship too because hell, it's a full house and he's a rec player. He's going to put you on AK.
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    BradleyT said:
    A9s - 0 combos available
    A5s - 1 combo available
    55 - 3 combos available

    3:1 that he has 5's full IMO.
    This plus the fact that people are more likely to limp/call with 55 more than they would with A5s from UTG I think we can discount the A5s to maybe 1/2 a combo.

    I would definitely raise but I'm not sure on the sizing. I'd really have to be at the table with the guy to know what I'd do but seems pretty close between a small raise and a shove.

  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    can't see the villain having any A5 hands here. He is more likely to have A-big or 55 which is likely to limp call based on preflop action - raise followed by other callers. When he just min raises the turn, he is trying to make up for the checked flop but doesn't want to lose the Hero.

    The lead on the river strong and he is never folding. Ship the river, turned sets are powerful.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Arenzano said:
    can't see the villain having any A5 hands here. He is more likely to have A-big or 55 which is likely to limp call based on preflop action - raise followed by other callers.

    I don't follow this logic at all. Why can't he have A5s when he limp/calls utg multiway? That is the preflop action most likely to be consistent to the way rec players play A5s.
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    DrGambol said:
    Arenzano said:
    can't see the villain having any A5 hands here. He is more likely to have A-big or 55 which is likely to limp call based on preflop action - raise followed by other callers.

    I don't follow this logic at all. Why can't he have A5s when he limp/calls utg multiway? That is the preflop action most likely to be consistent to the way rec players play A5s.
    I see people limp/call with hands like A5 all the time. Suited they never limp/fold it.

    I'd just makes it $2000 and if he shoves, go from there. Only to a really blatant live read would I be folding. I think he's gonna just snap call with the majority of his range, doubt he raises here even with A5. Depends on the player type tho
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    With this action he basically has A5s (1combo)and 55(3 combos). I don't ever see him playing a non-full hand like this especially when you have a range advantage with AK. So you beat 3 combos and lose to 1 combos.

    Main Question:
    1. Will a tight villian fold 55 to a big check raise?

    If the answers is yes then it's a call. If he never folds 55 then you're good 75% of the time and it's a clear shove. If he folds 55 half of the time than you're good closer to 50% of the time it's a call.

    Without knowing the villian I'd venture to say most players are incapable of folding 55 here and it's a profitable shove.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    If he has A5 or A7 or (yikes) AA. Raise to pot sized 2100 and pay him off...
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    Villain limped in from UTG, not sure why people are ranging him on AK/AQ/AA.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,568Subscriber
    Villain is playing like he has a boat. There are more combos of 55 vs A5s. I'd shove as villain is not folding a flopped boat
  • fishcake Posts: 954Subscriber
    All in.
  • JustRunLikeGod Posts: 10Subscriber
    All in.
  • JustRunLikeGod Posts: 10Subscriber
    haha
  • Philly Dave Posts: 114Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Like others have said 55, A5cc I guess some small non-zero percentage of the time he could show up with AA but that seems super unlikely.

    Hero should have big Ax combos in his range so I think villain's line is consistent with all flopped full houses.

    Option 1- rip it in.
    If villain will call a shove with all his full houses we should be good 75% and this would be most +EV with an expectation of +1100ish

    If villain can fold some percentage of the time his 55 hands this moves to a neutral EV play rather quickly.

    Option 2 - raise/fold
    If villain will always call a mini raise to say 1k with 55 but would only ship A5 our expectation is approx +500.

    Zebo theorem suggests people don't fold full houses. Bart's aggressive action theorem suggest that this much aggression by a villain rarely results in a fold. Bart's observation of live river play suggests a bet 3! Should be the effective nuts and this guy was described as tight.

    I don't know the answer to the question "would this villain ever bet / fold 55?" If the answer is sometimes then I don't think shoving is correct. And a raise fold as gross as it seems might be correct.

    However we need to also have a confidence of around 85% that villains 3!ship always means we are beat.

    Since Bart described the villain as tightish I'm going to assume 55 is maybe a little more of his range preflop than a5 and That also villain tightness means he can fold 55 at least some of the time and would only bet/3! Aces full or quads.

    So click it up as a bet/fold is my answer.

    Edit... I'm never bet folding this... I thought about this wayyy too much. Villain has a boat... most likely 55. He's never folding. Just ship it. That's the correct play in my games. The fact that he's tightish just means there's probably a little more weighting to his 55 combos than his Ax not that he's going to hero fold his full house.
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