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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
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  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    MrFizzbin said:
    If he has A5 or A7 or (yikes) AA.
    I'm baffled by V's actions... he limp/calls from UTG. Checks the flop. Bets tiny on the turn - but then is happy to 3-bet the turn? Then, on the river, he bets 900 into a 1380 pot.

    I think we can rule out a bluff.
    And I don't think he's doing this with trips. If he had trips, why didn't he bet the flop? Plus, why wouldn't he be afraid that Bart has a boat when Bart raised turn and called a re-raise? I don't think AK or AQ fits this profile.

    Now let's look at 77. I think 77 = JJ, QQ or KK here. He's never getting to the turn when Bart is raising the turn. Same with A7... if he's never raising the turn with AK, then he's never raising with A7 either.

    99? Too many nines...

    55 or A5... very, very possible. But Bart's line would be consistent with A9... in which he could have A 9 or one of 5 other possible combos of A9os (which V can't have). Wouldn't V be worried about A9 beating A5 or 55? Maybe not.

    Now the only hand that's left that I think, only Fizzbin called out - which I think is also possible is A A. Yeah, yeah, yeah... improbable, blah blah blah, MUBS-thinking, etc.

    how many times have you seen a guy flop quads and bet it? Me? Maybe less than 1%.
    And what turn bet have you ever seen when a guy flops quads? Me? A baby baby bet.

    40 into 180 is a "please, please, please call me" bet if I've ever seen one.

    Since V is never bluffing or betting trips - he can only have one of 12 combos... 5 5, 5 5, 5 5 or A A + 6 combos of A5 (only one is suited - A 5) and for good measure - two combos of A9 - A 9, A 9.

    we beat 3 of the 12.

    I ain't never folding. But I don't see why we want to pump up the river. I could see 55 fold to a shove or reraise. So it seems that by raising, we're only getting dumped on by a better hand and never getting more chips from worse. Here, we should probably fold, but me, I'd....


  • BartBart Posts: 6,072AdministratorLeadPro
    AA is virtually impossible due to the preflop action.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Bart said:
    AA is virtually impossible due to the preflop action.
    ... nevermind.... :lol:
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    late to the game on this one.... and this will seem hindsight 20/20.... but just one point....

    there are certainly combos that are non-zero -- AA is one such combo -- that we can completely ignore because the possibility is so slight that there's not enough effect on the decision.... but there are others that, while they're highly unlikely, if we ignore them it might skew us toward a non-optimal decision....

    you've ranged him to 55/A5 suited/A9 suited.... and i agree those are the only hands with which the action is entirely consistent.... but what about AK? tight player -- they sometimes like to play cagey with AK. definitely not a 100% rule-out based on pre-flop.... and on flop, AK beats any other ace that's not full, so a bet-3bet not entirely out of the question....

    and since there are 8 total combos of AK, i think it might be a mistake not to factor in 1 or 2 combos of that hand. when we're making a decision with these really precise combinatorics and it's close, one or two combos could really sway a decision....

    i'm not saying we should include any AQ or AJ necessarily -- i think the frequency of those falls off drastically compared to AK -- but it might be incorrect not to include a sliver of the AK combos here to account for that 'non-standard play' factor....
    by 1Bart
  • CajunDragonCajunDragon Posts: 173Member
    I loved listening to this hand. I had the combinations and nearly the same thought process as bart. But if I was actually IN the hand I don't think my mind would of figured them out correctly. I've played a lot of poker (not as much as Bart obv) but this "haze" as Tommy Angelo calls it is annoying.. Are there any calming techniques any of you guys have used or found that help.. Besides weed obv!!

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