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$5/$5 – Flop Three Pair

dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
This is a hand a friend of mine played last weekend. He’s working on transitioning from NLHE to PLO, and is willing to spend the money learning by fire. We discussed this hand a bit last night in passing (socially, not strategically), but I thought about it a lot after the fact. Wanted to throw this out there and see what others think…

Villain is well-dressed white guy in his 40s. Pretty conservative, hasn’t gotten out of line too much. Hero doesn’t recall seeing this much strength from him ever. Meanwhile, hero is late twenties kid who fits the “internet wizard” stereotype – very splashy and aggressive.

$5/$5 PLO. $1750 Effective (Hero covers).
Villain raises to $20 in CO. Hero on button calls with A Q 9 7. Blinds fold.
Pot $45 after rake. Flop A Q 7. Villain bets $40. Hero raises to $120. Villain calls.
Pot $285. Turn 5. Villain checks. Hero bets $200. Villain raises to $500. Hero calls.
Pot $1285. River 5. Villain shoves $1100. Hero?

I’m a PLO rookie, but here’s my thought process. Preflop with position seems okay to me. Villain’s not opening that light here, but with double-suited high cards, I think a call is fine. On the flop, we crush everything. It is hard for villain to have a set, so villain probably has a pair and a high rundown, like AKJT or something like that. We’re doing pretty well against that hand, so we can raise for value. Villain’s call is consistent with that.

On the turn, a BDFD appears, so it’s possible villain has AKJT with the NFD with his turn checkraise. I guess I don’t know with this action how often villain has the one remaining combo of AA or QQ. Is the call here standard? I first thought hero should be reraising the turn, but maybe not?

The river is pretty sick. The straight and flush draws brick, but sets fill up. This is such a polarizing bet. Hero tanked and tanked and tanked, trying to talk to villain, who didn’t talk and didn’t take his eyes off the board. Hero ended up folding. I think that’s the right play too – I just couldn’t see a conservative player take this line without a set/FH, but my PLO experience is limited. What do you guys think?

Comments

  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    I agree with the thought process preflop and OTF and the line seems fine.

    However, I think the turn is a fold to the c/r from this described opponent. You do have blockers to top and middle set, but his line is very consistent with these hands. With a set, he just calls your raise OTF because y'all are too deep to tip-off his hand on this dry board. Unless the turn brings a broadway card, he expects to maintain the nut hand OTT. If the board was more dynamic OTF, I would be more skeptical of this line.

    Blockers only reduce the combos, not eliminate. In this case there are very few other hands, if any, that take the b/c flop, c/r turn line. This opponent was described as being conservative - is he taking this line wraps or wraps+ pair? I doubt it. In addition, his raise sizing OTT is to get called, not to maximize fold equity. I would expect someone making a semibluff to c/r close to pot OTT.

    As played, I think the river is a fold for the same reasons as above.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    I would just fold turn. 3 pair no redraw, even in CO vs BTN, is not going to be good very often facing the 4th postflop bet (bet/raise on flop, and bet/checkraise on turn).
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Also keep in mind that 3 card combos (KJT in this case) are more rare than 2 card combos such as AA even though 2 aces are blocked.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    Aesah said:
    Also keep in mind that 3 card combos (KJT in this case) are more rare than 2 card combos such as AA even though 2 aces are blocked.
    I'm just starting to spend some time fiddling around with combinations in PLO, and had no idea about this nugget! Definitely one to keep in mind. I also think I might have been too focused on the backdoor flush draw, and imagining different scenarios with villain having pair+wrap+BDFD, and how he might play them.

    Thanks for the feedback, and your patience with a complete PLO fish!
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    Is this a hand that you want to get to showdown? In other words, check behind on turn to get to a cheap river? This hand seems too strong to bet/fold on the turn when we block three flopped sets and we have redraw outs to a boat, especially when the turn doesn't complete any straights.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    Aesah said:
    Also keep in mind that 3 card combos (KJT in this case) are more rare than 2 card combos such as AA even though 2 aces are blocked.
    That's very interesting and helpful. Did you work out the math on this or is there a link to somewhere? I'm curious to learn more.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    If I was villain in the hand and got to the turn in this way with a set, I'd be check/potting turn, not check/smallish raise. 5 makes the board pretty wet and I want to extract value from NFD and straight draws.

    I think villains hand has few sets in it. I'm either checking back turn to get a cheap showdown, or bet/3! turn
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    edited April 2015
    Given known cards of Ah Ad Qc 9d 7c Qs 7d
    There are 2400 combos of KJT available.
    There are 903 combos of AA available.

    Source: Odds Oracle Range Explorer

    image
  • Jordan Posts: 78Subscriber
    It really looks like Q's full. He probably had something like QQK10 with spades for middle set/gutter and picked up spades on the turn. I think the fact he didn't come back over the top on the flop means he didn't have the nuts and didn't want to run into Aces. The smaller check raise may mean he picked up a flush draw, and when your friend didn't play back again, the guy knows his Queens are fine. That's my read.
    Flopping three pair of top two is tricky because you do block set combos, but coolers too happen. What would your friend do if the 7 paired the river.
    I'd lean towards a fold on the turn after the check raise. I think the bet is fine, but once a straightforward guy check raises, I think it's time to dump it.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Forgot that you could do counts in Propoker tools. There are roughly the same number of KJTx hands that he raises preflop as there are AAxx on this turn with your known cards:

    Omaha Hi Hand Count
    dead cards: AhQs7d5s
    Hand
    AdQc9d7c 1
    KJT!2!3!4!5!6!7 992
    AA 861

    The number of combos of KJT with spades is much fewer on the turn:
    KJT!2!3!4!5!6!7:ss 263

    I didn't even count QQxx combos, but the takeaway is that even with your blockers he is much more likely to have a set than a wrap+.
  • Jordan Posts: 78Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Maybe. just MAYBE... He could have something like K K7 7?
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    OK i was wrong about that AA being more common than KJT. thanks for correcting me team! nevertheless,

    -AA/QQ together will be more common before any action than any KJT assuming he doesn't raise the junky KJTx hands. If you add in some junky KJTx hands, then it only seems fair to add in some 77 to balance it out anyway.
    -you have to further discount KJT when he chooses to check/raise on the turn after you show extreme strength. This is the most important point, against many conservative players in my experience you could discount this almost entirely!
    -Finally, the KJT that he chooses to c/r may often have spades and still has a lot of outs against you, while you're drawing close to dead vs. his range of a set.
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