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$2/5 NLH AA facing a turn shove

I open AcAd to $20 utg, I get four callers both blinds fold. Flop comes Ks6s4d, I bet $65 all players fold except the button who calls. I had approx. $450 to start the hand, button covers me. The button is a middle aged recreational regular who can be a little fishy at times but isn't really super fishy overall. He would definitely just call with AK in this spot pre flop, so don't rule that hand out of his pre flop range here because he didn't three bet me pre flop. Turn is 8c, I bet $115, he thinks for a few seconds and moves all in. At this point I'm getting close to 3 to 1 on a call? I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts on this spot, my line, and what you do now facing the turn shove as I played it?

Thanks!

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Readless this is probably a fold. Years ago this is a snap call, as players would overplay Kx constantly in this manner. But nowadays, not so much. This is a set or 57 almost always.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    You are getting 710:250 on a call so you only need 26% equity versus his range to call. So you need to be pretty damn sure you are beaten to fold here. I didn't read anything in the OP to make me that sure, and this opponent was described as a little fishy. Can't someone who is a little fishy overvalue hands here when the pot has gotten quite large compared to remaining stacks?

    I think you are often beat, but not enough to fold with these odds. I'm calling here.

  • GroundhogDayGroundhogDay Posts: 287Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    ^ this is where I get confused with pot odds verse my hands equity, and figured I would post to clarify. So in order to find out the equity you need to call, the formula is this:

    what you have to call / (Pot + what you have to call)
    250 / (710+250) = 26.04%

    not this:
    what you have to call / Pot
    250/710 = 35.21%


    Just wondering which one is correct?

    Thanks for confirming


  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    ^Your first equation is correct.

    An easier example is needing to call $25 into a pot of $75. In this case you need 25/(75+25) = 25% equity to breakeven on a call. Another way to say it is that you can lose $25 three times for every one time you win $75 in this situation and net out to zero. Out of four trials, three can be losses and one can be a win.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    Fold.
    Could be 57 or a set, but I would actually expect a player to do this with K8s more often than str8 or a set.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    High__Rolla said:
    ^Your first equation is correct.

    An easier example is needing to call $25 into a pot of $75. In this case you need 25/(75+25) = 25% equity to breakeven on a call. Another way to say it is that you can lose $25 three times for every one time you win $75 in this situation and net out to zero. Out of four trials, three can be losses and one can be a win.
    Think of it is how many increments of the bet go into the pot. Ie how
    Many $25s go into $75?

    3. So you need to be good 1 out of 3+1 times.

    If you think regardless of it you are good this time that you are good 1 out of 4 times your call is profitable


    Another way is to estimate combos but
    Thats more complicated. So a shortcut is if villain wud spaz or play a king this way you are good often enough to call

    So would villain Wait for a "safe" card ie no flush card to ship top pair? If so then you should call

    If he doesnt then he is more likely to have a set. Even if he didnt raise on the flop
  • brettbader Posts: 6Subscriber
    Sorry for the late reply, the villain did end up having the 75o which honestly surprised me, I knew 75s was possible but 75o I felt it was very, very unlikely. After reading all the comments I do think getting it in was ok given the fact that I really think he would over value big K's (ex. AK, KQ), and that alone given our odds makes this a pretty annoying but trivial call. Vs. range of 44, 66, AKs, AKo, KQo, KQs, 75s, we are 58.1%, if you toss in the 75o which he did in fact have (felt this was almost impossible at the time) we are still around 40.5%.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    I realize this is after the fact so take it for what it is worth.

    Given your description of the V I think 75 is large part of his flop calling range given your bet size, suited or not. He is on the button calling after 3 others have called so he is wide.

    IMO, the only hands that call your flop bet are Kx, AXs, and straight draws. Sets probably, but not always, will raise to protect on the flop.

    When the V shoves here he is doing so with a minimum of 2pr, sets (888), and straights.
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    Yeah this basically comes down to frequencies. For example I would think this guy would 3b AK some of the time pre so he doesn't have all AK combos. He may also raise the flop w/ AK 4 handed. I would also assume most recs aren't sticking it in w/ KQ very often. If he has AK 50%, KQ 25%, and 57o 25% it gets a little closer.
  • brettbader Posts: 6Subscriber
    Arenzano said:
    I realize this is after the fact so take it for what it is worth.

    Given your description of the V I think 75 is large part of his flop calling range given your bet size, suited or not. He is on the button calling after 3 others have called so he is wide.

    IMO, the only hands that call your flop bet are Kx, AXs, and straight draws. Sets probably, but not always, will raise to protect on the flop.

    When the V shoves here he is doing so with a minimum of 2pr, sets (888), and straights.
    aaron said:
    Yeah this basically comes down to frequencies. For example I would think this guy would 3b AK some of the time pre so he doesn't have all AK combos. He may also raise the flop w/ AK 4 handed. I would also assume most recs aren't sticking it in w/ KQ very often. If he has AK 50%, KQ 25%, and 57o 25% it gets a little closer.
    After reading your comments I kinda have to agree and it got me to thinking about this again. So the question is, should I not be betting this turn and crossing over the commitment threshold? I mean if we are not "committed" (willing to get it in) then should we not be betting the turn? I mean if we were deeper then I could certainly be bet folding if we do think the frequency is weighted heavily to the sets and 57's but with the given effective stack in this particular spot should we not be betting this turn?
  • SKOOSKOO Posts: 160Subscriber
    Honestly, I don't think getting it in on the turn is the right play. If he's flatting AK pre Otb, then he's likely flatting that on your turn bet as well hoping for a brick to showdown. Turn aggression is so capped at this level and he's basically turning it face up cause of the apparent spade draw. It's a puke fold, but a fold.
  • brettbader Posts: 6Subscriber
    SKOO said:
    Honestly, I don't think getting it in on the turn is the right play. If he's flatting AK pre Otb, then he's likely flatting that on your turn bet as well hoping for a brick to showdown. Turn aggression is so capped at this level and he's basically turning it face up cause of the apparent spade draw. It's a puke fold, but a fold.
    I'm really starting to agree with you, this is a showdown monkey type player and if he had AK you're absolutely right, he just wants to get to a showdown without going bananas and would very likely just call my turn bet. Do you still think we should be betting the turn though? Or should we just be checking because we are not committed after that turn comes off?

  • Johnny_UtahJohnny_Utah Posts: 402Subscriber
    brettbader said:

    After reading your comments I kinda have to agree and it got me to thinking about this again. So the question is, should I not be betting this turn and crossing over the commitment threshold? I mean if we are not "committed" (willing to get it in) then should we not be betting the turn? I mean if we were deeper then I could certainly be bet folding if we do think the frequency is weighted heavily to the sets and 57's but with the given effective stack in this particular spot should we not be betting this turn?
    This is a great question to ask..."If we are not willing to get it in should we not be betting the turn?"

    IMO that is a really great way to think and analyze your game. But on this turn I think it is okay to be bet-folding. Even though we are not really deep and keeping in mind the concept of "commitment threshold..." If we were to check OTT and villain bets 125 are we that confident folding AA here? I wouldn't be. BUT when we bet and villain shoves it's going to weight him more to made / strong hands. When we check and villain bets then I think it makes the decision much harder....

    Maybe someone will convince me other wise...but I like your sizing and am okay folding.
  • SKOOSKOO Posts: 160Subscriber
    brettbader said:
    SKOO said:
    Honestly, I don't think getting it in on the turn is the right play. If he's flatting AK pre Otb, then he's likely flatting that on your turn bet as well hoping for a brick to showdown. Turn aggression is so capped at this level and he's basically turning it face up cause of the apparent spade draw. It's a puke fold, but a fold.
    I'm really starting to agree with you, this is a showdown monkey type player and if he had AK you're absolutely right, he just wants to get to a showdown without going bananas and would very likely just call my turn bet. Do you still think we should be betting the turn though? Or should we just be checking because we are not committed after that turn comes off?

    It's a bet fold all day. He's going to call all draws on that board why give a free card? And why put yourself in a ck call situation?You're really going to know when you're in trouble with these types of players. it's almost funny how easy it can be to fold to them. We just can't get married to the AA in this hand vs THIS player.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    It is a bet all day long on the turn. You can get value from those Kx hands and get him to make a mistake by calling with his bricked flush and straight draws. However, once he raises you need to consider why he is raising and make your decision accordingly.

    Also, personally I think you should be value betting larger on the flop, because almost no one with a K is going to fold.
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