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Do I want a fold on turn?

reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
2/5 BigO, 6 or 7-handed, $800 effective, relatively early in last night's session. Button (pretty tight, thinking player, not overly aggressive, mostly a NL player, but plays in our Omaha mixed game often, has some experience) straddles to $10. MP (loose passive) limps, I pot to $50 with a trashy hand A A J 8 7 for fun, knowing that I'm almost NEVER getting 3-bet here and planning to hit it pretty hard or just fold many flops. Button calls, MP calls, pot is $150.

Flop is A A J

MP checks, I check, hoping to get an action type turn card to allow people to put money in the pot. Button (somewhat surprisingly) bets $75. MP folds. I give the button air (like 24577 or some other low hand along those lines) almost all the time here, so I just flat. There's a possibility obviously that he has JJ, but I block a J, so I think combinations wise that's unlikely.

Turn is 8

What is the correct thought process here assuming my range for villain is accurate? Do I want to lead for pot on the turn, denying button the opportunity to draw to 20+ outs for a low or charging him the max if he decides to call? Do I want to bet something like half-pot and hope for a call with a 23xxx type of hand to get value and risk losing half the pot on the river?

Thanks for your advice.

Chris

Comments

  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    You're betting for value vs low draws. You are getting called by boats anyway. Playing the flop as you did is fine, no one can have much anyway.

    Low draws are a about .20 EV here, so bet appropriately. I'd actually size it larger because of how you played your hand. Combo draws with flush draw + low draw might figure they could scoop. Not saying it's correct thinking, but I see it all the time.
  • eyehaityou Posts: 288Member
    edited April 2015
    I think anyone dumb enough to call for a low is probably gonna call almost anything, any underboat may call. Jam and make fun of them when they call. That's just what I do Though. P.s. Read my holdem post haha
  • High__Rolla Posts: 765Subscriber
    Technically, he could have a scoop out if he has Ts9sxxx, but let's just assume you have the high locked up. In that case, yes, you want a call, because you are essentially free-rolling his turn bet that the low doesn't hit OTR.

    Let's assume he 24577 like you said. As such, there are 20 of 38 unknown cards that make a low. If you bet $200, and he calls, then you make 18/38 * $200 = $94.73 off that bet (plus your portion of the existing pot).

    So yeah, bet the largest amount you think he will call OTT.
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