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RTR--Skeletons in the Closet Somewhat Short or Good Read?

BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
edited April 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Anyone get a bad feeling about a hand? This past week over the last 20 hours or so I have been getting coolered left and right. Would love an honest perspective on this hand. Use combinatorics and conditional probability in evaluating an accurate range.

Villain is unknown. 5 hands before at 1500 effective this hand went down:

UTG opens to $50, Hero calls with T 8 on button and flop goes HU.

FLOP: J T 2

Villain checks, Hero bets 70, Villain calls.

TURN: 2

Villain checks, Hero bets 120, Villian calls.


RIVER: T

Villain bets 380. Hero calls,Villain shows JJ.
------------------

About 5 hands later, Hero, for whatever reason has not topped of yet and starts with 1200.

UTG Hero raises to 35 with A A folded to same Villain in BB who calls.

FLOP: J 2 3

BB checks Hero bets 50, Villain calls.

TURN: A

Villain checks and Hero decides to bet smaller as he thinks it is bad for Villains range $135. Villain ponders, fiddles and calls.

RIVER: K

Villain bets $300. Hero?
«13

Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,842Subscriber
    22,33, JJ- 9 combos for sets that we beat and probably take this line. Im not sure how often he is going to be 3 betting an UTG open with JJ but if you think he will then I guess we can give him only 1 combo of JJ or even none.

    QT , 45-2 combos we lose that probably take this line but him calling pre flop with these hands might be less likely. If we say he is as lose as 45o then OBV he has quite a few more hands.

    I don't think Vil has 2 pair here except maybe AJ but I don't think AJ donks river K ever. Vil also never has Ax here at all since we have the A

    1040/300 for us to call cause I don't think we should ever be folding. The question seems to be if we should be raising here. If we think he will never fold any hand that leads here then I think we can profitably shove. If he is nitty enough to fold 22 and 33 here then its just a call.
  • CalgaryPokerGuy Posts: 342Subscriber
    You have about $1K left. You could min-raise fold but I think I would just shove, if he has 45 (doubtful based on calling pf, plus the weak turn call) or the 1 combo of QTcc then well done. I think he has other 2 pr / sets that will pay you off, esp since it's not even a pot-sized raise. Another reason I'd lean towards a shove is that you don't have enough history with the villain to give him credit for just the super narrowest part of his range that beats you. AA is pretty much the nuts here no?
  • PocketAceTrader782 Posts: 439Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    V betting 300 into 440. You have 815 behind after you call the 300. 9 Combos of sets that you beat. 6 if you think he is 3-betting with Jacks.

    Q 10 and 4 5 are the logical hands that beat you. But, if he is wide enough to call 4-5 off-suit in the BB to a pre-flop raise, then that opens up even more combos. (16 more to be exact). Plus there are 3 more 4-5 suited combos.

    The difference between this hand versus the first hand is that his top boat came in on the turn. Lets say for argument sake on the first hand that the turn was a 5 I think then he is far more likely to raise the turn with his set and not slow play.

    Therefore, Conditional Probability: How likely is an unknown player to slow play both the flop and turn on such a wet board with a flush draw? I say not too likely.

    I would just make the call. Q 10 and 4 5 are the most logical hands even though those are two combs. You throw in some other 4-5 suited hands, thats 3 additional combos.

    Carmine



  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    I know it is hard to put into words, but do you think his "fiddle" on the turn was deciding between calling and folding, or calling and raising? Just looking for those live intangibles...

    If you got the sense he was thinking about raising, then it's really 22, 33, 45s, or Q :c T If he was thinking about folding, then it is probably only KJ.

    Obviously in the case he has KJ it's an easy shove. It is the hands that he was considering raising that we should be worried about. 6 combos we beat, 5 we lose to, plus the chance we misread his intentions and we have KJ. I think we can shove...
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    Considering this guy likes to super slowplay I dont think you can really come up to monsters under the bed quite yet.. This would mean he could have all sets (assuming he wouldnt raise because of the flush draw)

    So hands we beat given the way he played the previous hand are

    Sets 3 combos each.. ( we could reduce these a bit if you think he would play them faster cuz of the flush draw..) say reduce all combos by 1/3 from 12 to 8 .. I am including the kings because he seems to be a slowplayer..

    two pairs.. (not as likely imho) KJ 2 combos of KJ suited KJss and KJdd.. would he play KJos? lets add 1/3 of those combos.. 4

    hands we lose too..
    45 suited all 4 are possible assuming villain would call with these.

    QT suited..only QT cc even seems plausible to get to river..one combo..

    So total combos of likely hands we beat= either 10 or 14

    Combos we lose too= 5

    I would possibly add even more combos if he doesnt ever consider scary boards and kinda just clicks buttons.. ie not even attempting at even a little hand reading..if this is the case he doesnt really overplay per se..but he will value bet hands much worse than your average rec player..

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    dpbuck said:
    I know it is hard to put into words, but do you think his "fiddle" on the turn was deciding between calling and folding, or calling and raising? Just looking for those live intangibles...

    If you got the sense he was thinking about raising, then it's really 22, 33, 45s, or Q :c T If he was thinking about folding, then it is probably only KJ.

    Obviously in the case he has KJ it's an easy shove. It is the hands that he was considering raising that we should be worried about. 6 combos we beat, 5 we lose to, plus the chance we misread his intentions and we have KJ. I think we can shove...
    This is very important.. Did you feel he was considering raising?? This could mean he has now a backdoor draw.. so maybe we give a little more credence to QTcc and when he leads river we call instead of raising even though there is only one combo ..

    I mean isnt that why we try to pick up live reads in the first place???

    ww
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    I don't really see how Q T is really being a big part of his range. Most guys will peel one off to see if they hit - but then fold on the turn. K Q would do the same. Besides, we block the nut FD - so it's more likely he's not on that draw.

    I also don't see why 45 has to be s, I think he could easily have 4 5, 4 5 or 5 4 just as easily... if we want to just limit him to suited connectors.
    So here, he can have 4-16 combos of 45 vs the 9 combos of JJ, 22 & 33.

    In addition, I think you would expect V to be concerned about the flush draw on the flop (although he wasn't concerned about it on the turn in the other hand) - I think he would check/raise the flop in case Bart was betting with A K.

    Since he didn't check/raise the flop - AND - his turn actions looked suspicious, I think 45 is the most logical hand he shows up with on the river.

    Since Bart can easily have AK - and hit 2-pair on the river, I don't see him betting a smaller 2-pair like 23.
    Since Bart has the A - I don't see him floating with the nut FD on the flop and turning two pair by the river.
    It's a (rare) possibility that he's got AJ or KJ - 3 combos or 15... but if you insist on suited, then only A J plus K J and K J.
    Again, he'd have to be a bad player to think that KJ is good against an UTG raiser.
    I don't see him getting to the river with KK.

    since AJ, KJ, smaller sets are a possibility - I think we have to call. But I'd expect 45 to show up here 80% of the time.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    I don't really see how Q T is really being a big part of his range. Most guys will peel one off to see if they hit - but then fold on the turn. K Q would do the same. Besides, we block the nut FD - so it's more likely he's not on that draw.
    Again I disagree.. the fact he now has both a straight draw AND flush draw is enough for the vast majority of rec players that I see.
    beauregard said:
    I also don't see why 45 has to be s, I think he could easily have 4 5, 4 5 or 5 4 just as easily... if we want to just limit him to suited connectors.
    So here, he can have 4-16 combos of 45 vs the 9 combos of JJ, 22 & 33.
    This is harder to estimate.. We assume that most players are more willing to play suited than non suited cards.. So his FREQUENCY is much high for suited cards.. Bart didnt really give us an idea of his tendencies..as some players would never play small suited cards..
    beauregard said:
    In addition, I think you would expect V to be concerned about the flush draw on the flop (although he wasn't concerned about it on the turn in the other hand) - I think he would check/raise the flop in case Bart was betting with A K.

    Since he didn't check/raise the flop - AND - his turn actions looked suspicious, I think 45 is the most logical hand he shows up with on the river.
    Bart also didnt speak to whether this villain would slowplay even a wet board. We know he superslowplayed a dry board.. and even didnt raise the river with top full house.. So I am making an assumption that he probably wouldnt fast play the flush draw.. I could be wrong and if so then this absolutely reduces the number of sets in his range
    beauregard said:

    Since Bart can easily have AK - and hit 2-pair on the river, I don't see him betting a smaller 2-pair like 23.
    Since Bart has the A - I don't see him floating with the nut FD on the flop and turning two pair by the river.
    It's a (rare) possibility that he's got AJ or KJ - 3 combos or 15... but if you insist on suited, then only A J plus K J and K J.
    Again, he'd have to be a bad player to think that KJ is good against an UTG raiser.
    I don't see him getting to the river with KK.

    since AJ, KJ, smaller sets are a possibility - I think we have to call. But I'd expect 45 to show up here 80% of the time.
    There are also some other less likely combos also possible.. Like K3cc or even Aces up.. the thank on the turn I think is more like a made hand than a draw.. since most players who slowplay dont play their draws fast either.. so he probably wouldnt have to think about anything much..

    Its just is the tank thinking about raising or not??? If its more about raising then 45 should be weighted higher as well as sets..

    ww
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Thehammah said:
    There are also some other less likely combos also possible.. Like K3cc or even Aces up.. the tank on the turn I think is more like a made hand than a draw.. since most players who slowplay dont play their draws fast either.. so he probably wouldnt have to think about anything much..
    using combinatrix - the only possible hand that the turn helps would be A 2 or A J - just two combos - that are very, very unlikely being that we've got 2 Aces in our hand.

    I'd be more inclined to give V something like J2 & J3 than K2 or K3. I don't see the bottom pair calling on 2 streets to get 2-pair on the river. But I don't see a player that's show up with JJ being the kind that calls a pfr from oop with J2, J3, K2 or K3.

    Although K 3 would make the most sense.

    If the K came on the turn - I could see QT staying in his range. But as played - I think it's musby to think that QT gets there on the river... even Q T - again, this is against the guys I play with - SoCal might have a whole different group of 2/5 players that will call to the river to see if their hand is good.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,842Subscriber
    I'm going to go on a limb here and say this guy never has 2 pair at the river. this is only sets and straights we have to worry about.
  • ConlanMa Posts: 181Pro
    Seems like raising to about 700 and sadly calling off (without a crazy read on the villain) would be the play - since you don't know if he ever overplays worse hands (e.g. Worse sets). Villain should get to river with the following value hands (assuming he defends a reasonable range pre)

    (Primary combos) Q10cc, JK (9 combos)
    (Secondary combos) 22,33,45s,AJ - most of these combos he'd have some frequency of raising at some point prior to the river.
    (Tertiary combos) Ax two pair hands

    That makes at least 9 combos of hands you beat (plus any bluff combos), 1 combo you lose to he'd likely play in this way and some secondary combos he could play this way. If you assume he calls JK, AJ to a min raise I would probably raise river here.
    by 1JT00
  • ConlanMa Posts: 181Pro
    Omitted JJ as a secondary combo. Also have to reduce likelihood of 45cc due to flop raising considerations.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
    edited April 2015
    beauregard said:
    I don't really see how Q T is really being a big part of his range. Most guys will peel one off to see if they hit - but then fold on the turn. K Q would do the same. Besides, we block the nut FD - so it's more likely he's not on that draw.

    The ace on the turn puts out a broadway straight draw. Even the games "you" play in Beau see guys call the turn with Q T on a J23A board with two clubs.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Bart it depends on the players.
    the "pros" might call to the river - but against a good opponent - they know that when the flush hits - it's so obvious that they won't get any value from it - so most of the times unless they're playing a drooler, they fold.
    the rec players would call one street - but fold to a sizable turn bet - especially oop. on top of that - the A smacks your range more than theirs - yeah, they've picked up 3 more outs. but most rec players in our room don't chase much.

    like I said - if the K came on the turn - then QT picks up 6 more outs - so in our games - it's more plausible that QT stays in. but with the A on the turn - it seems like QTcc is as plausible as KQcc and not very likely.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited April 2015
    i have never met anyone in my entire life who would fold QTcc on J23Accxx

    (that's not a really important point to this discussion anyway though.)

    I think a ton of unknown players will defend preflop with 54o as well as 54s.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Aesah said:
    i have never met anyone in my entire life who would fold QTcc on J23Accxx
    So against an UTG raiser...
    after EVERYBODY at the table have folded pre-flop...
    everybody you know would defend the big blind with Q T being heads up?
    And then call a flop bet with a naked flush draw and one over?
    And then call a turn bet with just a naked flush draw and the hope that a K hits the river?

    Heads up? OOP? Really?

    Do you know Wendy? She wouldn't.

    The only guys that I know that would do this - are rich guys who are playing 80-90% of all their hands or somebody on revenge tilt who's trying to get back at the raiser.
    Yes, it happens - but it's the exception NOT the rule. Plus, against a good professional player - you don't need to be a rocket surgeon to know that it's typically a very big losing play.

    In a limped pot - it's a different story.
    In a raised pot, if everybody always did this - you'd be in multiways almost ALL the time.

    I call bullshit!
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Hey beau dont drag me in on this. And the truth is if the price is right and i think bart would pay me off on the river esp of the straight comes in then i would call

    That aside its not me who is in this hand but a rec player. And rec players do things much different than you me or bart. So we must THINK like the rec Player to accurately define his range. And most rec players are not folding QJ cc when they hit a gutshot to go with their flush draw

    You play in some unreal nitty games Beau.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    TL;DR

    Analysis

    The previous HH just tells me he's a typical rec player who likes to slowplay top set on the flop and a boat on the turn. From that I would infer that he likes to slowplay some hands but not necessarily a straight on the turn on a wet A high board. This is important in trying to determine how many 45s or 45o combos he has in his range.

    I think most rec players will defend 45s in the BB. So I give him 90% of those combos.

    4 * .9 = 3.6 combos of 45s

    Also, most rec players will fold 45o preflop but there are definitely some that will call. I would say about 20% of those combos.

    12 * .2 = 2.4 combos of 45o

    However, not all of these combos slowplay the turn because we're not quite sure of his tendency in this specific scenario. So we'll need to discount some of these combos even further. I would say most rec players raise turn with 45 afraid of letting a straight, flush, or boat catch up on river as well as expecting value from the Ax hands we have. I would guess 25% of rec players slowplay 45 on the turn that isn't 45cc.

    1 + (5 * .25) = 2.25 combos of 45

    I expect V to have 100% of QTcc and would guess around 33% of QThh and QcT.

    1 + (1*.33) + (3*.33) = 2.32 combos of QT

    2.65 + 2.25 = 4.57 combos of value hands better than AA

    So now on to the combos that AA wins against. With a bet of 300 into 445 I think his range breaks down as the following:

    The likelihood that V doesn't 3bet AK preflop I would guess is around 75%:

    3*.75 = 2.25 combos of AK

    The likelihood that V peels AK to the flop bet(90%) and just calls turn bet(80%):

    2.25*.9*.8 = 1.62 combos of AK

    The chances that V doesn't 3bet KK preflop(20%):

    3*.2 = .6 combos of KK

    V just calling KK on the flop as opposed to raising(50%):

    .6*.5 = .3 combos of KK

    V betting this large on the river with KJ(20%):

    9*.2 = 1.8 combos of KJ

    V flatting JJ pre as opposed to 3betting(90%):

    3*.9 = 2.7 combos of JJ

    V flatting flop bet with JJ(100%) and flatting turn bet as opposed to raising(20%):

    2.7*.2 = .54 combos of JJ

    Combos of AJ that flat turn bet as opposed to raising(10%):

    3*.1 = .3 combos of AJ

    Combos of 22 and 33 that flat turn bet as opposed to raising(20%):

    6*.2 = 1.2 combos of 22 and 33

    1.62 + .3 + 1.8 + .54 + .3 + 1.2 = 5.76 combos of hands worse than AA

    5.76(worse combos)/10.33(total combos) = 55.7% of the time AA is the best hand

    Conclusion:

    Since AA is good 55.7% of the time against V's value range and a good chunk of that is KJ that he will most likely fold against a shove and with the stack sizes hindering our ability to raise/fold against an unknown, I think shoving is neutral to slightly -EV which means calling is the most +EV option. Of course any of my estimates of the frequencies can be anywhere from a little to way off and I think Bart would have a more accurate idea of V's frequencies than myself.
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    beauregard said:
    Aesah said:
    i have never met anyone in my entire life who would fold QTcc on J23Accxx
    So against an UTG raiser...
    after EVERYBODY at the table have folded pre-flop...
    everybody you know would defend the big blind with Q T being heads up?
    And then call a flop bet with a naked flush draw and one over?
    And then call a turn bet with just a naked flush draw and the hope that a K hits the river?

    Heads up? OOP? Really?

    Do you know Wendy? She wouldn't.

    The only guys that I know that would do this - are rich guys who are playing 80-90% of all their hands or somebody on revenge tilt who's trying to get back at the raiser.
    Yes, it happens - but it's the exception NOT the rule. Plus, against a good professional player - you don't need to be a rocket surgeon to know that it's typically a very big losing play.

    In a limped pot - it's a different story.
    In a raised pot, if everybody always did this - you'd be in multiways almost ALL the time.

    I call bullshit!
    Ain't no one folding QcTc bro. I surely wouldn't.

    And yes, almost all players are calling preflop and on the flop and on the turn.

    If you think people don't have QcTc then you are ranging people completely wrong.

  • JT00 Posts: 193Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Everyone else has done the combo math, so I won't bother with that.

    No one has even asked about the tempo of his lead for 300 on the river. I think the tempo of his bet is very relevant. It's possible he might give off a live reaction to the river card. Even if he doesn't give anything away, changes in timing can affect the play. Whenever someone check-calls the previous street and then leads the next street, his betting tempo in relation to his reaction to the card can guide your play.

    If he snap bets 300, his mind is made up on what he's going to do based on the river card. In this situation, QcTc is a huge part of his chk/call/chk/call/snap-lead line. He knows he's going to lead a club or K river. Getting 2.5 to 1 I'm probably not good enough to find a fold and just call the bet.

    If he ponders again, looks at you, looks at his chips, and then bets 300; different story. Here, I think KJ makes up a very large portion of his range. In this spot, I'm clicking it back to 600 or maybe 700-750 if you think you can get a call. A lot of people are saying shove, but I think villain might find a fold in this spot with worse and obviously calls with better. This is LIVE POKER, and he is NEVER folding to a min raise.

    If his bet is well enough in tempo with the rest of his previous actions, calling vs raising becomes closer. I think he almost never has 45 because I think he is almost always popping that on the turn. The fact that he pondered and fiddled also makes it less likely. I'm also discounting most AJ combos because, unless he's trying to block the river, I don't see him chk/calling the turn then leading the river. Let's give him 1 combo of 45 and 1 combo of AJ to account for the times he plays his hand that way. That leaves one combo of QcTc and 9 combos of KJ. I'm raising the river small every time.
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