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RTHH. Top pair on turn

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
edited April 2015 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I have just sat down at tbl post my bb. Button is villain hes a 30 something player wearing sweats and a thin hoodie listenting to music on his iPhone. I have never played w him before. 1000 effective

Villian raises 20 on button. Im in bb w Q J He can be wide here.

Flop. 8 2 2

I check he checks

Turn Q

I bet 35. He raises to 90.

Hero?

Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,842Subscriber
    Call and re eval river. Ranging him on draws, Qx, and med pairs like 77 or Something.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    NL

    You dont think hes betting pairs on that board?
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,842Subscriber
    I think this board is pretty dry and he knows he will get looked up quite a bit here if he c bets.

    If his image is an Internet kid then the turn raise could easily be a semi bluff or even a bluff.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Yes its relatively dry. But if he has a y pair i think hes betting that. So that leaves hands with showdown value. Ie Ace highs.

    So if i bet turn w top pair. That means his range is????

    Spoiler:
    So i put him mainly on ace highs when he checks flop so i think my hand is best. When he raises me he imho has aq bluffs or a weirdly played overpair
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,842Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I think he bets his over pairs and Ax on flop. If we are ranging him on Ax mainly if he checks flop then wouldnt our best line be to check turn as well and allow him to bluff at it?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    If he has ace high and didnt bet the flop he is probably not going to wake up and bluff the turn

    BUT he would probably call my small bet cuz the board os so wet
  • EMPTYTHECLIPEMPTYTHECLIP Posts: 12Subscriber
    First off, how thin was his hoodie????

    I say you can fold pre. You're not giving up much by letting that hand go hu oop. A 3bet is better than a flat.

    As played the turn can go either way but i like check/call better than leading out. If turn goes check/check you can value bet most rivers. If you do bet the turn, bet less. As played, fold to the raise. Your hand looks face up and he's raising you. Clearly you're folding the winner here maybe 1/3 of the time but those times he should have a fd. If you call the raise what's your plan on the river? Half the deck is a bad card for you and if he's bluffing now you have to assume he's firing the river too (as well as when he hits a flush or flopped huge). I don't think you should be playing 5th street chicken in this spot. A lot of the time when you call here the river goes check/check and he shows you the winner AQ, KK etc.
  • Mike D. Posts: 116Subscriber
    Wendy,
    I'm really having a tough time figuring out which hands I (or the V) would not c-bet OTF. Most players are betting an over pair, flush draws and missed suited connectors on this board. Most players will check back suited A2 (2 combos), 88 (3), and 22 (1). Then, he isn't phased by your bet on the turned Q. That makes me reconsider KK (6), AA (6). I think he is betting almost everything else OTF. I think it's OK to b/f here. But, you know me--I'm pretty tight!
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Fold or three bet pre.

    By saying you just sat down and posted, does that mean you're brand new to the table starting your session or returning from a break?

    On the turn you bet pot and he still raises you... unless you have history or you've watched him make similar plays against others I believe folding is the best play.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I was new to the table..

    In my games when I see a player check back this type of board I immediately put them on lots of Ace highs.. These hands all have showdown value and in position villain can see the turn cheaply..

    When the Q hit and it made the backdoor diamond draw of course I was going to be it. In my mind the only hand I am behind is AQ.. so when he raised me .. I have to put him on a slightly different range.. My range for him given I had no reads on him was:

    Bluffs.. he thought he could raise get me to fold..
    AQ.. of which he is raising for value given I could have a draw..
    Flush draws.. He really could only have say AKdd AJdd ATdd since Qd on board.
    Overpairs..

    ok so what then are the FREQUENCIES that I estimate that he would be playing these three categories???

    Bluffs - I think he was quite capable based on stereotypes to bluff.. HIGH
    AQ- Also HIGH
    AK AJ AT dd flush draws- MEDIUM
    Overpairs - VERY LOW..


    I say medium to flush draws because if I bet threebet him he is risking me blowing him off his draw.. So all in all His most likely hand to raise is AQ and imho most the rest are bluffs.. So I called..

    River 3

    I check he thinks for a second and bets $140.. So now pot is 500 140 getting 3.5 to 1.. I only have to be good here 1 out of 4.5 times? I think this is clearly yes.. I called..

    Spoiler:
    He hesitated then showed me AK.. then said something to the effect of "she never folds" lol..


    Spoiler:
    Later I spoke to him about this hand and another hand we played together on a a similar paired board where I was heroing him with 55 on a 334A board.. we spoke about ranges and the funny thing is he bluffed the second hand too with JJ because he never thought I would call the flop with an ace.. hes hungarian and I dont think they have CLP there.. lol

    :wink:
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    Without history I don't see the point of leading the turn. You're only going to get one street (maybe) vs A high, the Q hits his flop check back range harder than yours w AQ/KQ, and his AJ/KT hands that checked will stab a lot. Yeah you get value from FDs but a random raising range isn't going to have a FD too often and if they do you still get value by check/calling. Most PFRs who check back flop will be betting this card on the turn.

    Instead by leading you put yourself in a tough spot that you'll probably wind up losing money with in the long run vs a player you have no history with.

    Without fully ranging this guy is be surprised if he has enough bluff combos for this to be a profitable call. AK is a pretty strange one to show up with here but most of his total air is betting the flop here and all of his semi bluffs get there.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    regarding 3 bet or fold with QJo, I think that is a really bad approach to structuring your blind defense ranges. QJ flops a lot of strong top pairs and dominates a lot of weak Qxs and Jxs hands that will open the button. It doesn't make much sense to get people to fold those hands when we can keep them in his range.

    I think a better situation to say QJo is 3b or fold is in blinds or in position against an MP raise from a tag since in that scenario, flatting is likely not profitable and we can block some decent calling range hands (AQ/AJ/QQ/JJ/JTs/QJs/KQ/KJs) and we flop decently well against a lot of hands that might call a 3 bet in a live game (like small pocket pairs or 65s).

    However, in the BB, calling QJo is clearly profitable against a wide button opening range. So I'd rather 3 bet good suited hands that might not make a profitable call, like K5s, Q8s, 96s, and such that fold out more hands that have us dominated.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    As played I'd call and re-evaluate the river. I'd call given his tiny river sizing although I don't love it.
    aaron said:
    Without history I don't see the point of leading the turn. You're only going to get one street (maybe) vs A high, the Q hits his flop check back range harder than yours w AQ/KQ, and his AJ/KT hands that checked will stab a lot. Yeah you get value from FDs but a random raising range isn't going to have a FD too often and if they do you still get value by check/calling. Most PFRs who check back flop will be betting this card on the turn.

    Instead by leading you put yourself in a tough spot that you'll probably wind up losing money with in the long run vs a player you have no history with.

    Without fully ranging this guy is be surprised if he has enough bluff combos for this to be a profitable call. AK is a pretty strange one to show up with here but most of his total air is betting the flop here and all of his semi bluffs get there.
    I think the turn is a must bet. Most people's ranges for cbetting the flop are their 2x, some 8x, pairs, and air. Most people's checking ranges are weak pairs, ace high, and weak 8x. Almost no one checks air on that flop. So if his range consists mostly of weak showdown value, I'd auto bet the turn and bet most rivers with a lot of my range, especially for my value hands.

    Worrying that betting the turn might lead to a tough turn decision is pretty odd in my opinion because we get raised on the turn so rarely. I'd expect to get raised only by a strangely slow played 2x or a weird bluff. That probably happens less than 5% of the time against a standard 2/5 player.
  • fishcake Posts: 954Subscriber
    It's very simple and probably over a lot of your heads why this is a fold pre: You're paying $5 rake HU OOP. It's that simple. Fold and move on. It's a -EV spot in live poker with the rake. QJo is not exactly a powerhouse hand that is going to cooler people HU. Another brag thread, cute.
  • ReignmakerReignmaker Posts: 147Subscriber
    I would have played it the same way except I would have folded the river, even with the good price, since the draw completed.

    When he raises the turn, a lot of his range is backdoor FDs, some monsters (but I would have expected him to bet the flop given his profile) and maybe some AQ/KQ. When he bets OTR, I would probably drop Qx from his range since I would expect him to check it back now that the draw completed and he has SD value.

    If it were a brick, I would be more likely to call.


  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    fishcake said:
    It's very simple and probably over a lot of your heads why this is a fold pre: You're paying $5 rake HU OOP. It's that simple. Fold and move on. It's a -EV spot in live poker with the rake. QJo is not exactly a powerhouse hand that is going to cooler people HU. Another brag thread, cute.
    If you fold your blinds with QJ against a player who you think capable of playing a worse range then you are giving up too much.. QJ against a looser player is golden since there are plenty of hands you dominate that they would raise..

    As for the "bragging" almost every single RTR hand that Bart puts up is him making a good decision. Its either losing the least or winning the most. How is this any different? I Thought this hand showed how far my hand reading has come along and I used it to win extra money. I am not going to apologize for that. Thats why I joined CLP and others should be cheering along with me.

    An even worse "brag" post would have been me calling a 3 bet after I raised utg with KQ os against a player who 3 bets me alot.. but that hand was boring as I flopped the nut straight.. nothing interesting there.. except I adjusted to others trying to take advantage of my tight image..

    lately the hands that I am winning I have thought were interesting..


    ww
    by 1DamianS
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    Reignmaker said:
    I would have played it the same way except I would have folded the river, even with the good price, since the draw completed.

    When he raises the turn, a lot of his range is backdoor FDs, some monsters (but I would have expected him to bet the flop given his profile) and maybe some AQ/KQ. When he bets OTR, I would probably drop Qx from his range since I would expect him to check it back now that the draw completed and he has SD value.

    If it were a brick, I would be more likely to call.


    I did tank.. but in the end I thought I was getting too good a price and there would only be a few combos of flushes that I thought he would play this way.. ie AKdd AJdd ATdd

    all other dias he would have had he would have cbet bluffed the flop so those are not there..So AQ is still the most likely hand and there are alot more bluffs in his range..

    ww
  • GSpot Posts: 97Subscriber
    His sizing on the river is a value bet and it I believe he was semi bluffing the turn and got there on the river. It is a good price but I do not think you are good and as played you or I have no idea where you are at and he is showing 2pair+ strength. I fold the river.
  • GSpot Posts: 97Subscriber
    just saw the result... :) moral of the story to me is let the math prevail... NH!
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    GSpot said:
    just saw the result... :) moral of the story to me is let the math prevail... NH!
    No worries. Remember that there are only really 3 realistic combos of flush draws. So is he really betting that card for that amount when i can have a flush w AQ? Maybe but in my mind its more polarized. Getting such good odds i have to call
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