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Bad River Shove?

NEO Posts: 46Subscriber
I normally play 2-5, but started playing 1-3 recently out of necessity due to a bad downswing. The villain in this hand and I have had some history from the day before. Plays pretty laggy, and is squeeze happy.

Hero- AQ off in the HJ.
My Stack- $560 and Villain has me covered.

Preflop:
Tight mid position player opens to 11, I call, the cutoff calls and the button calls. Villain who's in the SB raises and makes it 56. The tight player folds, I call, and it ends up heads up to the flop. Pot is $148.

Flop:
Q, J, 7, w/2clubs
Villain leads out for $75, and I call. Pot is $298

Turn:
3 off suit.
Villain bets out $140 and I call. Pot is $578

River:
10 off suit.
Villain pauses for 5 seconds and checks. I ended up shoving for the rest of my stack which was for close to $300.

My thought process:
When he checks the river, I thought that his range would be capped to either KQ, or KK. Anything better there should be betting the river, and I really don't even expect him to check KK there. So I shoved thinking I'd be betting for thin value? Was I wrong there and did I overplay my hand?

Villain ended up calling and showed KK.

Villain's play:
Did the Villain play his hand badly by check/calling the river? Why or why not?

Comments

  • barry20calvin81 Posts: 31Subscriber
    I probably check back river. So many two-pairs got there; his check looks scared of AK. Does he really call you with a J, for example? Then again, Bart says to value bet thin a lot on rivers, so maybe you did the right thing and I'm not learning well enough.

    Villian's play is pretty bad; he beats only AQ (given that you probably don't call a FP 3-bet with A-10clubs or 9-10); so check-call river seems unjustified. He should either shove or check-fold. Actually a pretty tough choice for him between those two; he misplayed by betting too small on turn; shove or close to it would have avoided this situation.
  • ACK Posts: 428Subscriber
    It's a bit optimistic for you to think he has KQ. He is 20 times more likely to have AA, KK than KQ in my opinion.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    From V's POV, you're range is capped at a Q.
    If you had AA, QQ, JJ or even, QJ - you wouldn't have just called the flop.

    Based on your actions, you can't have 2-pair unless you got lucky with QT (or an unlikely JT) on the river. But does a player really call a raise and 3-bet pre-flop with QT?
    While ACK may say "yes, 100% of the time" - I respectfully disagree.

    so... if you happened to be on the flush, you totally missed.
    The only possible hand you can have that beats him is A K - but I think you would have taken the betting lead on the flop. (btw - did he have K?)

    So...
    based on your actions, I, too, would have checked the river and given you the opportunity to "bluff" me off my hand. While Bart says not to check/call, I think this is a perfect spot to let a player bet or shove the river with what's most likely the worse hand.

    I think your play was fine - although optimistic - on all streets except the river. This is a classic case of WAWB - where your shove is only being called by better hands and folding out hands that you would have beaten as showdown.
  • barry20calvin81 Posts: 31Subscriber
    edited April 2015
    What reasonable totally missed flush draw hands could hero have, that call a 3-bet pre-flop? A♣-10♣ or 10♣-9♣ if our hero is really laggy, but even those aren't too realistic (and 10♣-9♣ plays this much faster, I'd think). After all, you said "But does a player really call a raise and 3-bet pre-flop with QT?" Any other missed flushes are less likely starting hands PF for hero from villan's POV than QT, QJ, or J10, which are more likely combinatorially than precisely A♣-10♣.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
    edited April 2015
    You shouldn't be in the business of trying bluff people off of over pairs in 3 bet pots. Dude is not folding KK or AA here.

    If the third club had come in you could make a case for turning your hand into a bluff as villain doesn't beat AK straight or flush now.

    Bart
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    barry20calvin81 said:
    What reasonable totally missed flush draw hands could hero have, that call a 3-bet pre-flop
    Hard to tell since OP didn't tell us which cards were s.
    So AJ or AQ could be in there. Or KQ or KJ (again, depending on if V had K)
    I was simply stating that when the flush busts out, a good V is more likely to ease off the gas and let the man with position drive himself to value town.
  • barry20calvin81 Posts: 31Subscriber
    But A♣Q♣ and K♣Q♣ (even if they are available) are hands V would want to bet against because they will be checked behind by 95% of live players. I understand your point in general about missed flush draws, but when you have a 3-bet pot and the A♣K♣ got there because of the straight, checking to induce a bluff from a flush draw that is so unlikely isn't a good play.
  • StarwarsJediMasterStarwarsJediMaster Posts: 741Subscriber
    Villain ended up calling and showed KK.

    fold pre , he probably isn't a lag or squeeze happy, pay attention to every hand and 1/3nl players all suck lol
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    barry20calvin81 said:
    ....when you have a 3-bet pot and the A♣K♣ got there because of the straight, checking to induce a bluff from a flush draw that is so unlikely isn't a good play.
    yeah - it's not something you'll want to do 100% of the time - it's very player dependent.
    But I do it often against aggro players and guys who will value own themselves.
    Here - I'd never fold KK. And if I bet and Hero shoves, I'm calling. So what does it hurt to check? He's shown strength by check/calling... I'd give him a little rope and see what he does.
  • barry20calvin81 Posts: 31Subscriber
    The problem with checking- if you are never folding- is most live players check back KQ and AQ, which are hero's two most likely holdings than villain still beats; far more likely than a flush draw given what else is out there and the action.
  • GSpot Posts: 97Subscriber
    Am I too much of a nit? I fold PF.
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