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These spots always make me wonder if I'm calling too much...

YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
I've been on a rough downswing over the past couple months and wanted some thoughts on a fairly simple yet common spot that went down in a Mixed Game Home Game. I mainly wonder when folding is best & am I calling too light?

Hero has a rough, losing image. I've gotten it in preflop in the mixed game 3-4 times and lost each time (NLH, PLO, and Big O).

Villain in the hand is in the BB. He is a slightly winning player who did move to Vegas last year and played NLH for a living for about 6 months before moving back to the local area and getting a job once again. He's not near as good at mixed games but still beats the game. He plays a fair PLO range preflop but still probably plays too many hands.

$1/$2/$5 Bring-in PLO
$400 Effective

BTN straddles for $10. Hero is in the SB with A 9 T 8× and calls the $10. 3 other people call. Straddler checks.

Flop Q T 8 ($50)

Hero checks. BB leads for $35. MP calls. Hero calls. Rest fold.

I called because I thought some of the time my boat outs are good, some of the time my straight outs are good or tie, and I also have back up diamonds getting a decent price. I also thought if he pots the turn that he has the nuts without a doubt. I think he would check the turn nearly 100% without the nuts.

Turn 2 ($155)

Hero checks. BB pots it for $155. MP folds. Hero calls.

As I thought, the villain told me he had the redraw to the flush. While this takes away 2 outs, it also nearly guarantees that I get the last $200 and get called when diamonds hit. It also makes my full house outs good, yet I don't think I could get called for more than $100 on the river. Lastly, my few chop outs are good most of the time.

River Brick. Hero x/folds.

So is this just a big leak or am I overthinking the hand?

Comments

  • bellerophon18 Posts: 6Subscriber
    Out of position, I can't see a better way to play this hand. I think your only other real option is to bet/GII on the turn, if you think he shows up without the straight often enough. I don't think I'm ever x/f flop or turn. If he shows you his hand and it's Q J 9 6 your equity is 27% on the flop. You are 3 ways and closing the action vs a less than pot sized bet. Pretty obvious that the math is call here. When the 2 rolls off on the turn, you now have 26.3% equity. Facing a pot sized bet you need 33% equity. 33%-26.2% = 6.8% * (155*3) = $31.62 is the amount you need to make on the river to profit with this call (anyone care to double check my math? This calculation seems intuitively to be correct but I'm not 100% sure).

    Obviously you can't see his cards, but that's an example of a hand that he is most likely to show up with, and isn't TOTALLY crushing us, but has quite a bit. If he doesn't have the Queen, we are in better shape. If he has QQJ9 we can exclaim "how do you run so good!?!?" when we hit our 8 and go all in.

    "So is this just a big leak or am I overthinking the hand?" I don't think it's a leak based on my analysis, though I'm happy to hear more from others. I generally hate any check call, check call behavior unless against a total maniac, but I think this is one of the few hands it is justified in. Worst line IMHO is check folding the flop.
  • Dusty Posts: 233Subscriber
    i would c/f flop as we have no nut outs, are often drawing near dead if they do not have the str8, and any card that comes we have to call/guess to proceed?
  • bellerophon18 Posts: 6Subscriber
    Dusty said:
    i would c/f flop as we have no nut outs, are often drawing near dead if they do not have the str8, and any card that comes we have to call/guess to proceed?
    Check/fold flop getting 3.4:1 in a limped pot? I certainly would vs some villains but as described, this is certainly not one of them. At this point he could easily be taking a stab with like KQ66. Obviously we can narrow his range further after the pot on the turn but on the flop if you fold here, I wager it's incorrect results oriented thinking.

    At least some percentage of the time, turn checks through, and we value bet *some* river cards and pick up some extra value.

    Oh, and we are drawing to the nuts, could go or T T or 8 8 :P
  • High__Rolla Posts: 775Subscriber
    I also don't like the call OTF flop when you are OOP 3-way. In position, it is a different story. While your hand may have equity, it doesn't have great playability.

    If the turns is a Q or any blank, you will have to fold to any bet. If the turn is T or 8, you will fill-up, but this will scare the BB if he had a straight or may make you 2nd best hand versus either opponent. A J makes you the 3rd nut straight. As it is you got one of the best turn cards, and have to call a pot-sized bet without having 33% equity, meaning you have to depend on implied odds. While you may get him to call some rivers that make your hand, he is a good player and less likely to blindly call off.



  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    Thanks a lot peeps.

    The consensus seems to be:
    It appears this might be close in position, but OOP this line is spewy. Will try to adjust. Thx
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