I've been on a rough downswing over the past couple months and wanted some thoughts on a fairly simple yet common spot that went down in a Mixed Game Home Game. I mainly wonder when folding is best & am I calling too light?
Hero has a rough, losing image. I've gotten it in preflop in the mixed game 3-4 times and lost each time (NLH, PLO, and Big O).
Villain in the hand is in the BB. He is a slightly winning player who did move to Vegas last year and played NLH for a living for about 6 months before moving back to the local area and getting a job once again. He's not near as good at mixed games but still beats the game. He plays a fair PLO range preflop but still probably plays too many hands.
$1/$2/$5 Bring-in PLO
BTN straddles for $10. Hero is in the SB with A♦ 9♦ T♦ 8× and calls the $10. 3 other people call. Straddler checks.
Flop Q♦ T♠ 8♣ ($50)
Hero checks. BB leads for $35. MP calls. Hero calls. Rest fold.
I called because I thought some of the time my boat outs are good, some of the time my straight outs are good or tie, and I also have back up diamonds getting a decent price. I also thought if he pots the turn that he has the nuts without a doubt. I think he would check the turn nearly 100% without the nuts.
Turn 2♦ ($155)
Hero checks. BB pots it for $155. MP folds. Hero calls.
As I thought, the villain told me he had the redraw to the flush. While this takes away 2 outs, it also nearly guarantees that I get the last $200 and get called when diamonds hit. It also makes my full house outs good, yet I don't think I could get called for more than $100 on the river. Lastly, my few chop outs are good most of the time.
River Brick. Hero x/folds.
So is this just a big leak or am I overthinking the hand?